Big Brother 11
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Very surprised at Endemol giving us such a weak field for what has been listed as Ultimate Big Brother. The fact that some of them could not even win their original BB means that tis is definitely not an ultimate show.
Mcirrick, Makosi, Coolio, Victor, Michelle and Nikki have no right to be in there as none of them won their shows.
Nikki even had two chances first time round when they decided that she was a public favourtite, and still could not win.
Victor only seemed to be liked by DS as yet another cult figure to follow(that almost guarantees he won't win)
McCirrick did not play the game first time round, so they paid him yet again, to not play the game.[smiley:crazy]
The others in that group are such non entities with regard to being serious contenders that it's not worth spending time discussing them.
Nasty Nick I can understand, as he deserves a chance to redeem himself and try to change the public's perception of him as Nasty Nick. When you think of all the cheating and acting in recent year that make him look like a saint.
Preston can be understood, for the shock effect of him and Chantelle being cooped up together again, but apart from that he has no interest.
This leaves us with only four REAL Ultimate Housemates who have all won their previous shows, and have earned their shot at the title.
Brian was a very good winner first time round, and has a favourite's chance of winning this as he definitely knows how to play the game. He can be a little bitchy, but can temper it with humour so gets away with it. Only downside would be if the seed was sown in the viewer's mind that he was not real, and was being a little fake in order to win the show.
Chantelle was another winner and big public favourite as the innocent abroad amongst all of those over inflated egos. I think she is still a lovely girl, but appears very affected by her failed marriage and brush with stardom. She does make great TV, but this time I'm getting a feeling that she is putting a little bit more effort in and is more conscious of the cameras and public reaction. If this is true, it will become more apparent as the show goes on, and will reflect on her chances of winning.
She also stated categorically that she had not had a relationship or had anybody else since splitting with Preston which had everybody thinking "poor girl, what a shame", only to be outed by others in the house about Dane Bowers, the footballer and a few more.
I also loved her statement "I've been cheated on by every guy I've ever been with", was immediately asked if Preston cheated on her, to which she replied "NO"
Brian and Chantelle are currently the favourites to win what I see as a four runner race, which only leaves the other two runners. Now these other two runners are considered as also rans as they are currently outsiders in the betting with Ulrika mid 20s and Nadia 30ish.
Nadia was another great winner of the show, and was/is a very big public favourite. She won in spite of, or becasue of her tantrums about cigarettes, and the fact that she will call a spade a spade, while still having a very warm and affectionate side. So far, she has been the one to openly challenge Coolio and his attempts to commandeer the house and intimidate the other housemates, she is a very big character in Big Brother history, and I don't think her current price reflects this.
Ulrika was a surprise winner who seemed to slip under most people's radar, mine included. The fact that she won her BB means that she must have had some support though. She is definitely one of life's survivors, who has had many problems that have been played out in the eye of the public.
She seems a very calm, likeable person who reads a situation very well. Definitely a mother hen of the house who many could warm to.
The great thing is there is not a lot of downside to backing these two against the field as you don't have to bet that much when your selection's odds are in the 20s and 30s.
Feel free to pick holes in my argument, as that is what we are here for.
Best of luck, whatever you choose
Mcirrick, Makosi, Coolio, Victor, Michelle and Nikki have no right to be in there as none of them won their shows.
Nikki even had two chances first time round when they decided that she was a public favourtite, and still could not win.
Victor only seemed to be liked by DS as yet another cult figure to follow(that almost guarantees he won't win)
McCirrick did not play the game first time round, so they paid him yet again, to not play the game.[smiley:crazy]
The others in that group are such non entities with regard to being serious contenders that it's not worth spending time discussing them.
Nasty Nick I can understand, as he deserves a chance to redeem himself and try to change the public's perception of him as Nasty Nick. When you think of all the cheating and acting in recent year that make him look like a saint.
Preston can be understood, for the shock effect of him and Chantelle being cooped up together again, but apart from that he has no interest.
This leaves us with only four REAL Ultimate Housemates who have all won their previous shows, and have earned their shot at the title.
Brian was a very good winner first time round, and has a favourite's chance of winning this as he definitely knows how to play the game. He can be a little bitchy, but can temper it with humour so gets away with it. Only downside would be if the seed was sown in the viewer's mind that he was not real, and was being a little fake in order to win the show.
Chantelle was another winner and big public favourite as the innocent abroad amongst all of those over inflated egos. I think she is still a lovely girl, but appears very affected by her failed marriage and brush with stardom. She does make great TV, but this time I'm getting a feeling that she is putting a little bit more effort in and is more conscious of the cameras and public reaction. If this is true, it will become more apparent as the show goes on, and will reflect on her chances of winning.
She also stated categorically that she had not had a relationship or had anybody else since splitting with Preston which had everybody thinking "poor girl, what a shame", only to be outed by others in the house about Dane Bowers, the footballer and a few more.
I also loved her statement "I've been cheated on by every guy I've ever been with", was immediately asked if Preston cheated on her, to which she replied "NO"
Brian and Chantelle are currently the favourites to win what I see as a four runner race, which only leaves the other two runners. Now these other two runners are considered as also rans as they are currently outsiders in the betting with Ulrika mid 20s and Nadia 30ish.
Nadia was another great winner of the show, and was/is a very big public favourite. She won in spite of, or becasue of her tantrums about cigarettes, and the fact that she will call a spade a spade, while still having a very warm and affectionate side. So far, she has been the one to openly challenge Coolio and his attempts to commandeer the house and intimidate the other housemates, she is a very big character in Big Brother history, and I don't think her current price reflects this.
Ulrika was a surprise winner who seemed to slip under most people's radar, mine included. The fact that she won her BB means that she must have had some support though. She is definitely one of life's survivors, who has had many problems that have been played out in the eye of the public.
She seems a very calm, likeable person who reads a situation very well. Definitely a mother hen of the house who many could warm to.
The great thing is there is not a lot of downside to backing these two against the field as you don't have to bet that much when your selection's odds are in the 20s and 30s.
Feel free to pick holes in my argument, as that is what we are here for.
Best of luck, whatever you choose
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Several points from me Pakey:
Ultinmate is rather more about past contestants rather than winners. I don't believe it was ever advertised as a winners only show - on the contrary. They've brought some back that are are 'for the money' the exposure and as 'friends' of the show persuadable to turn up for the modest fee. Nikki, Big Mac fall into this category. The winners - at least Chantelle and Ulrika are 'in' with the production having been editted through to their victories. The case for your two rests imo on their current price which is fair value given the narrative and edit is still playing out and no chosen one seems to be getting too much spotlight tho imo Nikki seems to be highly figural relatively speaking. Chantelle imo is a rather more endearing package than when she 'won' last time. Brian is a vile creature with an ego as big as .... but apparently has his fans. Of the two I see Chantelle being shown as a more real person but I hate Brian's personality so am probably biased. Ulrika is a really wily player. Her smirk when Josie left was telling, and the fact that it was shown suggests she may not get the free ride she got last time ie the only woman in the final. |
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Great write up,
I really cant see past Brian winning. Cant see chantelle winning as dont think this love story with preston is enough to carry her through. Nadia too negative for me and not found her as entertaining "fun" wise as the bb she won. Ulrika, won her cbb by shock. If she is to be crowned the Ultimate BB winner i will be totally shocked if the edits allow this. |
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Like you I suspect Pakey, I'm not usually one for going with the market but very hard to see past Brian winning. Both Eureka and Chanterella won because of their storylines but they've already been played out once before. Brian is simply an entertaining hm who wants to have fun and is very quick witted, and has the ability of being b1tchy but being able to get away with it, he laughs with people rather than at them. I can only see his worth increasing when he features in the edit more.
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Cider Joined: 29 Aug 02
Replies: 5131 29 Aug 10 12:46 Like you I suspect Pakey, I'm not usually one for going with the market but very hard to see past Brian winning. Both Eureka and Chanterella won because of their storylines but they've already been played out once before. Brian is simply an entertaining hm who wants to have fun and is very quick witted, and has the ability of being b1tchy but being able to get away with it, he laughs with people rather than at them. I can only see his worth increasing when he features in the edit more. That's wrong - he's forever making snide comments and looks behind hm's backs. He constantly seeks to be in with the 'in' crowd . He's playing the game - if the producers don't want him then there is plenty of material to give negative edits |
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he went 9 weeks without a negative edit last time
..whats changed? |
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ftg I'm writing from the perspective of what the average voter sees.
As I wrote Brian can be b1tchy and get away with it. I'd like to se a least favourite/disliked poll where he is doing badly, I doubt there is one. |
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Hi Pakey
There is nothing wrong with your logic, but Nadia won a very odd BB when the charachters in the house and the antics of the HMs rather conspired in her favour. She was a bit of a freak and it was a freak result. I'm not sure if I would say she was loved to the extent that she will abide fondly in viewer's memories. Ulreka was one of my best ever results. However, she didn't beat the strongest field and Terry Christian rather blew up in the final furlong. Her duet with Vern was the making of her because it showed her as sweet and protective and willing to poke fun at herself. I was against Brian because in the real world he is not very nice, but this is game show and he is the best gameplayer in there. I have reluctantly brought him on board and dutched him with Chantelle. But I get the feeling something will have to happen to Chantelle (ie Preston will have to say he is getting married to his girlfriend and she will have to 'brave') for her to get over the line. I agree entirely that it is desperately weak and boring. The HMs are bored and so are we. Considering it is the Ultimate, it might be better called an 'After Thought'. Best Wishes |
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My thoughts fwiw (just in general, not book talking)
Firstly, are TPTB going to let it drift along like this or are there some major things lined up? Is the show going to be won by something that happens in this house or more on nostalgia? Makosi - not particularly popular inside or outside of the house previously or now. 100-1 so no point discussing unless I can think of a scenario in which she might win and I can't. Preston - bit of a nice quiet guy that all the HMs like in a sort of boring Ben Adams, Scotty way. No "story" without Chantelle and she would always beat him. A few stories out there that his long-distance relationship is over, and he might have mentioned it also? Nasty Nick - if he hadn't been so "nasty" in BB1, he would probably be one of those HMs who we struggle to remember. A major disappointment in this - very quiet, always looks uncomfortable and out of place, even a little seedy/creepy. Michelle - hard to see any reason why she would win at the moment. Nadia - agree with the comments above about that being a strange series. Don't think the vulnerability that was there then exists any longer. Just seems self obsessed, annoying, likely to fly of the handle at any time but not in an amusing way. Was able to get away with those things now, probably not now. Ulrika - agree again with the comments above about that being a weak field, probably helped by being the only woman left amongst quite a few males and they were a pretty poor bunch of women too. I think we have quite a different Ulrika in this series and she started off being really great but is starting to grate a bit now. She's a bit of a mother figure but has perhaps gone a bit OTT in that, being a bit too much of an earth mother and school marm. Probably talks too much, esp about herself. Victor - seems dull and a disappointment so far, but hard to be anything else in that bedsit. Some of the big characters/BB legends likely to suffer in this way. Nikki - always treads the thin line of being cute, endearing and funny or frustrating, irritating and OTT. HMs have to work quite hard not to openly get annoyed with her. Too marmite as things stand. Chantelle - almost a tragic, price-of-fame character. Tend to agree she needs something to happen with (or without) Preston, but she is hard to dislike and I imagine a lot of people will sympathise/empathise with her. Brian, one of the original BB big characters and has stayed in the business/public eye ever since. I've not particularly liked him in other things I've seen him in but this is his perfect setting, all the HMs tend to gravitate towards him and don't want to get on the wrong side of him so he is able to hold court, and is almost a narrator. This format is short enough not for his nasty/b!tchy side to come to the fore, and even if it did the other party could easily come out worse. Major negative seems to be that he expects to win. |
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Good summary squares. I'm wondering what importance this poll has:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/2459444/Brian-Dowling-is-best-Big-Brother-winner.html Brian hacked up and the next 2 aren't in the house. If this was horse racing and over same weight and distance he would be 1.1 given that none of them seem to have trained on. Seems to me given mass public goodwill he takes in it is his to lose. |
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Brian's biggest danger is overconfidence IMO - as squares pointed out, if he is ever shown looking too much like 'I've won' he could be in trouble.
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Lots of decent opinions there guys, amazing to see the variety of perceptions from watching the same show.
Most seem to think it is a two horse race, which could turn out to be true, and is reflected in the price. I'm sticking with my original thought about it being a four horse race, which makes the two outsiders of the four very good value IMO. No doubt the edit team will completely mess things up for us by adding new housemates or portraying certain characters in whatever nice/nasty way that they choose. |
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if naida can make it to the final she will be about 5/1
she is loved and hated in equal measure. very much like pepper, |
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no
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Nadia looks in trouble in a vote to evict scenario as one of the bigger characters, will all depend how Victor and Nasty Nick's plotting against Brian pans out.
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Just had a little of Nadia in the outright at 75.0ish as Nick could be about to play himself out the door. How the edit team portray his efforts to dethrone Brian will decide if he is still here next week.
His opening gambit last night did not sit well, and would more than likely have the average viewer thinking "Who the hell does he think he is?" or "Nasty Nick hasn't changed", both resulting in a lot of votes to be evicted. He appeared very sneaky when he didn't finish the sentence, but let Victor (and the voters) know exactly what he meant. The edit team will either portray this as fun or nasty, as always, they decide. |
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PAKEY
you've gotta have a go at that price mate but in all honesty, nick is just coming out of his shell and the public have been waiting 10 years for this storyline to continue so i dont think BB will want him gone....the whole country including the production team want to see if nick is really worthy of his 'nasty' title. |
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I won't disagree that we've all been waiting to see what Nick is like, and pointed out at the beginning of the thread that he needed a chance to redeem himself. The main worry for me would be that he is once again perceived as being sneaky and devious, which is easier to imagine against a likeable public figure like Brian.
It is all down to the edit team and in all fairness, nobody can claim it's any more than a 50/50 call at the moment. That 50/50 possibility of them going after him, dictates that Nadia's current price is massive value, and definitely worth the risk. |
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at that price a few sheckles is always worth the risk
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Pakey,why not do the honourable and tell us your tip is doomed [:D]
Nadia is likely to be a 100 after tonights edit. and i still need to have a word about your Steve tip  |
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Hi aa, as you know, most of my tips are doomed, especially at those big prices [smiley:crazy]
Nadia could well be above 200 if they show the Josie rant, which will leave the lovely Ulrika to hold the torch for us outsider backers. As regards the Steve tip, please bear in mind that it was also part of a two person tip, the other one being some very unfancied mare (everybody hated her at the time) called Josie. I don't know what happened to her as I was told that Corin and Sam were unbeatable.  I still want to know what percentage Steve failed to make the final by, nobody seems to have come up with those figures. |
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you're slicker than slick Vic
 you got saved because he got put out by a negative vote. Steve was without question..the poorest HM in BB history. has your name come up in the cricket investigation yet [:p] |
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Steve was quite poor, but he did have a wheelchair and a glass eye.  |
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My £1.50 on Pakistan will no doubt be investigated at some stage aa, but I'll never talk.
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Only £1.50 you've just got no balls Pakey [;)]
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ulrika getting bullied could a story be coming ?
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nadia got a pretty decent edit tbf
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2 to go on friday
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nadia is surely great value for 2nd eviction. She's been a disgrace so far, much worse than Makosi.
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Ulrika currently 46.0 to back, 980 to lay, Nadia 110 to back, 160 to lay would suggest that somebody is betting with a little too much confidence/information.
It is not looking good for either of them at the moment  If the producers continue to use the edits to promote the Brian show, they may as well crown him now and rename the show Ultimate Big Brian. |
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He always has been the unofficial King/Queen of BB.
In reality only Pete could potentially have run him close in a straight vote. Chantelle (only one with a story) is only possible one to beat him now. |
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Agreed shrewd and he has always had a big following, which makes me question giving him the added advantage of the fantastic edits and little "Brian Spots" on the show.
I should really know how they operate and accept it by now, as they had their winner at the start with the likes of Pete, Belo and Chantelle, and just ramped/edited them all the way home. While liking Brian, I am now finding his voice grating a little, as he seems to have an opinion on everything. He also seems to feel it is his duty to explain every situation to other HM's (is it cos they are too thick to understand) and needs to give his opinion on everything. He will probably win this in a canter, but I just hoped for a little bit of a competition as this is the last Big Brother. And my book wanted some competition so that it could be greened up at a later stage Chantelle not helping her case telling everybody that she has not had a boyfriend since Preston, then admitting that half of the media stars and footballers in the country have had her. |
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The other thing that makes me thing that there are people betting with too much confidence/informtion is Nikki's price in the eviction market.
She had an absolute shocker in last night's edit, where she was portrayed heavily as a spoilt little trouble maker, first demanding to be choreographer and flatly refusing the offer of lead dancer, only to bitch later because they made her choreographer, and did not let her be lead dancer. She is a petulant, spiteful little b1tch, who was portrayed in such a way, and yet only Chantelle is a bigger price to be evicted in the "vote to evict" market. Velly intellesting, no? |
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That, however, is classic Nikki. It's what a lot of viewers expect, and why a lot of people find her entertaining and funny; others hate her for it. She is total marmite, but she does have fans.
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Agreed squares, but the point I am making is this is a six way "vote to evict", so under normal circumstances, that would have had a detrimental effect on any housemate's chances of surviving. Nikki, however, is the big outsider to be evicted, only Chantelle appears to have less chance of going in the betting public's eyes.
I find that very strange, which makes me question the possibility of insider dealing. Missed your horsey tip yesterday |
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anyone who grabs the Show Commentator is always a threat.
Brian is simply the best in the business at it...he wasn't even pushed in the early shows but you couldn't keep him out the highlights e.g watch the majorettes routine which he ends up directing in the final performance. |
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* show commentator role
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If Preston goes down on one knee, she accepts tearfully, close to finals night, then we have a titanic battle of the jollies on our hands...
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Do you honestly think Brian will accept though shrewd, I thought he had a boyfriend already?
I've backed the two bints to win again at stupidly high prices, that will guarantee that tey both get evicted on Friday I'm off for lunch, have a good one guys |
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Pakey
I don't think there is insider trading going on. What you may be doing is what we all do and that is rationalizing events to fit with our books. Your long odds punt on Ulrika and Nadia was perfectly reasonable, but the simple fact is that both needed events to go their way to triumph. Ulrika only led right on the line in CBB and that was because Terry lost interest, Vern's appeal was over rated, Ulrika herself showed a soft side and she demonstrated an ability to laugh at herself. None of these elements exist this time round and it is very hard to see her winning at this stage. She was a great winner for me in CBB, but she feels like a busted flush here. Nadia 'emerged' from BB5 because of a very exceptional set of circumstances. Her 'outsider' appeal then is like the key card in a game - it can only be played once and she has already played it. I honestly believe that the house would have to turn into a war zone and Nadia would have to be picked on by VicNick (possible of course) for her to win. I am like you in that I have taken a position. But I have backed Nikki to offset my green on Brian. And like you I see events to fit my book. Yes, I saw Nikki act up last night, but I also saw Nikki acknowledge that she was being difficult and unresaonable. Like you, I need events to go my way for Nikki to beat Brian, but I'm not convinced she is quite the 'spiteful little bi tch' which you claim she is. Sure she has issues, but then don't we all? Best Wishes |