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five leaves left
21 Aug 10 11:37
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 117,126 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
Who gets it?

I know I've written the bullsh1tter off many times before and I'm no fan of him on LF, but he's a very decent HL's performer.
He's generally a positive upbeat character, unlike his main opposition in Mario, who is a whinger and a moaner.

He's neck and neck with Mario on TIBB and BBonline and when the DS influence works it's way out of these polls, I suspect he'll have a clear lead over him.

Of course his bullsh1tting ways could be exposed in the final days, but I suspect he's too cute to let that happen.

All things considered I'd make him favourite for 2nd and the top male spot.
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Report GeorgeBrush August 21, 2010 11:40 AM BST
I'm even on them and will prob stay that way.

Dull, I know
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 11:43 AM BST
Gamble! Gamble! , as the crowd would shout on bullseye.
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 11:45 AM BST
..and stop talking my book ;)

It's good. My best ever on the outright, but given the evictions have been a complete washout for me, overall it's about the same as last year.
Report PAKEY August 21, 2010 11:49 AM BST
Stop playing them fll, I gave up on the evictions a few years ago when I realised I could not read them.
Cue comments about how I should have given up on the outrightsLaugh
Report Cider August 21, 2010 11:51 AM BST
Josie winning is your best ever result on the outright is a bit of a stretch!
Report GeorgeBrush August 21, 2010 11:51 AM BST
It's better than talking mine Laugh
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 11:52 AM BST
Posted on another thread about this, but Mario still topping polls ahead of Dave and gets 'gay vote' and 'first-nighters' votes a fair bit too - Moley.
Report GeorgeBrush August 21, 2010 11:53 AM BST
Back both
Report Cider August 21, 2010 11:54 AM BST
I still have that 14-1 about Mario top male, which I'd given up on. Probably let it ride, I don't think bb will want Dave second.
Report PAKEY August 21, 2010 11:56 AM BST
I've sided with Andrew in the vein hope that the public fall for his wide eyed, innocent virgin b0ll0x
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 11:56 AM BST
My lips are sealed PlainLaugh

As for the evictions, watching plenty of LF tends to really pay dividends when it comes to predicting who will be up.

This year however they've been poor due to the lack of liquidity and all bar PP having given up on offering prices pre noms.


n1 on Josie btw. Very well deserved.  (the orange one was robbed! ;))
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 11:56 AM BST
I didn't think they wanted him in the final cider. Sad
Report Cider August 21, 2010 11:59 AM BST
He disappeared from the edit shrewd.
bb reminded everyone about leering Steve ln.
I think they like Andrew he may get a ramp.
Report GeorgeBrush August 21, 2010 12:00 PM BST
Dave certainly been protected by some edits
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 12:00 PM BST
Cider     21 Aug 10 11:51 
Josie winning is your best ever result on the outright is a bit of a stretch!


It's true Cider. I've no need or desire to lie.

Yes, if corin or Sammy had managed to make it, it would have been considerably better, but Josie is an excellent result, despite never really taking a strong position on her.
Report PAKEY August 21, 2010 12:01 PM BST
Thanks fll, to be honest though, as I had a feeling that the price was wrong for Pakistan to win, they may have just won an awful lot more for me in the last day, than Josie has over the last few monts.
Report Cider August 21, 2010 12:11 PM BST
I don't think you are lying fll but it's the same old same old.

Argue/discuss housemates' chances with posters throughout the series, be proven correct, but they still 'say' they end up winning buckets!

I can olnly think far less noise is made about the laying than the backing [:p]
Report PAKEY August 21, 2010 12:22 PM BST
Cider
fll has dicussed a fair bit throughout about buying both Corin and Sam at huge prices, and ensuring a green book when they went ridiculously low.
While others may claim to great winnings when being beaten, I do not think this is the case with fll, who is in my mind, one of the most respected posters on here.
Report Cider August 21, 2010 12:23 PM BST
Corin going cost me plenty on one bet tho :( , female supremecy on the spreads it was guaranteed to be one/two for the girls and a lovely payout. That was my biggest bet of the series and I could have closed out for a nice profit earlier in the week.

Some advice I bought JJ @4, he's now 8-11 so could close for a healthy profit. But 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth could end up very nice. What hope he come off the bottom spot, my thoughts were he would end up the 'fanciable male' out of the ones left.
Report PAKEY August 21, 2010 12:23 PM BST
To be fair, while I backed Josie from the start to win, I think I would have made an awful lot more money following those trains and laying off when the prices went low. (my favourite way of playing)
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 12:24 PM BST
I can olnly think far less noise is made about the laying than the backing

To be fair, that is a good comment, but something that probably applies to 99% of posters on this forum! Laugh
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 12:25 PM BST
Well yes, that's true cider.

I don't believe that's being disingenuous though
I just think it's a given that if you've backed a HM @ 20/1 that when they're trading between 3-4 that you're probably building up a nice green book by laying some off.
That's how betfair works. There's no need to start threads about it.

All my big positions have paid dividends this year.

Backing Corin in the 1st few days.
Backing her again when she was up for eviction and drifted right out.
Laying Steve early on.
Backing andrew when he 1st went in.
Backing Sammy at the start of last week.

They've been my 5 main positions. I've never taken a big position on JJ depsite hating the guy, or Josie who I've liked at times and disliked at others.

The value has always been elsewhere for me.
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 12:27 PM BST
That was a reply to this comment obviously -

I can olnly think far less noise is made about the laying than the backing
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 12:29 PM BST
It's an interesting point the fll - I reckon a lot of posters are laying while they are simultaneously posting good comments about a selection on here. Not really earth shattering news that this happens though! Grin
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 12:30 PM BST
*though fll, not 'the' Laugh
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 12:34 PM BST
CoolLaugh
Report Cider August 21, 2010 12:35 PM BST
I'd never thought of that, shrewd! Laugh
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 12:38 PM BST
True shrewd, but I don't there's anything wrong with posting about how much you like a HM, but at the same time laying them, or vice versa.

However saying someone is a great back or lay while doing the opposite is out of order and something I'd never do and I don't think many/any regulars would do either.
Report PAKEY August 21, 2010 12:40 PM BST
Wot fll said
Report Cider August 21, 2010 12:48 PM BST
If laying people should state they are laying, in the same manner they do if they are backing, imho.

How about JJ2 then ? Happy
tbh I'm leaning towards closing out.
Report dougs August 21, 2010 1:01 PM BST
Any chance they could do runners up "in no particular order" similar to last night? could screw up top male.
Report johnnyrant August 21, 2010 1:04 PM BST
I was keen on that supremacy bet Cider but baled for 5 quid loss after getting sense Corin would be a goner. There was some decent spread value after the quadruple eviction announcement and how the edit went this week. My difficulty is, they won't let me have much on.
On Outright sold Sam at 21, bought Andrew at 3 and Mario at 7. FWIW I have sold on Andrew at 12 but sitting tight on Mario. I see Mario & Dave finishing 2nd and 3rd - don't know in which order. Andrew will need a magic edit over next few days to get himself any higher than 4th imo.
Report Cider August 21, 2010 1:18 PM BST
jr, if Corin had survived I would have been extremely likely to have had a 23 point winner. If Josie wins it's still a 3 point winner. I should have hedged some more as Corin got more and more exposure.

At the time I didn't realise exactly how good a buy JJ2 was. circa 8-1 to be evicted but a five point winner as he's survived. There was very little downside to the bet.
Report jack12321 August 21, 2010 1:37 PM BST
Please don't tell me Dave's going to come second Cry
Report alfie46 August 21, 2010 1:38 PM BST
ok i wont but his gonna be top maleHappy
Report Mooono August 21, 2010 1:40 PM BST
Dave deserves to come 2nd..The other 3 have been complete bores
Report jack12321 August 21, 2010 1:46 PM BST
But... it's Dave Cry he should've been out a month ago
Report GeorgeBrush August 21, 2010 1:47 PM BST
He should be eviscerated by a falling pole from a church tower

re Damian Omen
Report cjhornet August 21, 2010 1:56 PM BST
I agree with your op FLL.
Report five leaves left August 21, 2010 2:24 PM BST
Stuff like this doesn't help Mario.

http://bb-cache.channel4.com/bigbrother/article/news/2010/Aug/21/will-andrew-say-yes/view.c4
Report alfie46 August 21, 2010 2:29 PM BST
mario and dave should flip flop
Report leveller August 21, 2010 2:54 PM BST
I see Mario as the protest vote, (on DS etc) but dave as a bigger personality.  He has shown warmth and humanity, and his obvious flaws have failed to damage him even with online campaigns imo.

Mario has had fairer edits (good and bad) but seems petulant and desperate.
Dave has made me laugh, got on well with most housemates, and his negative votes couldnt make an impact on evictions, and they cant stop positive votes in a vote to win.

both have been the house glue this year, talking/listening to everyone but mario has been more cliquey.

Personally I like andrew Happy but would prefer dave to finish top male - he has given more fun & entertainment.

Ben/Corin fans will vote Mario though.

JJ's only hope is if JLS become more vocal in their support, otherwise he fails to make any impact imo. He wont even get John James fans votes - they will go to josie.

Thats my ramblings done... Im still completely flummaxed(?)
but I expect to see Dave holding Josies hand in the final 2.
Report johnnyrant August 21, 2010 6:15 PM BST
fair play Cider - I presume from that, you were able to buy that supremacy at 7. Must have shot up rapidly. When I bought it was 17 (sold at 16).
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 6:36 PM BST
I'm not sure I can believe that the fairly young demographic of viewers for this show will be voting in droves for Dave.
Report johnnyrant August 21, 2010 6:38 PM BST
Given the way the hordes of tweenies have contaminated the voting, are you saying shrewd you can see this continuing - so a late surge for JJ2 a distinct possibility? Their mobile phone costs must be through the roof. Spoilt little sh*ts.
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 6:43 PM BST
Not sure JJ2 has a strong enough hold to gain significant votes.

Andrew or Mario potentially for a late run, though Mario more likely IMO. I just can't see the 'spotty kids' voting for a middle-aged strange man like Dave on redial.
Report shrewdbury August 21, 2010 7:53 PM BST
Roll up roll up for the only market worth playing now this series!
Report Cantona77 August 21, 2010 8:53 PM BST
What do you lot reckon the straight forecast at laddies 13/8 josie/dave?
Report layz August 21, 2010 9:00 PM BST
i think the dave top male on here is better eric
Report alfie46 August 22, 2010 9:58 AM BST
2.40 mario traded.its 2.70 in streetShocked
Report Goldie08 August 22, 2010 3:21 PM BST
Am i missing something, why is andrew trading at 8.0 for this.
Report armagnac August 22, 2010 3:25 PM BST
because since pepper went in, andrew has turned into a piece of furniture that mario takes to bed
Report PAKEY August 22, 2010 6:29 PM BST
Lucky that Pepper has gone now then army, I wonder who the edit team will target/promote now?
Report armagnac August 22, 2010 6:36 PM BST
dave is the only one with any life to him
Report PAKEY August 22, 2010 6:40 PM BST
Josie would be almost impossible to stop, and why should they bother really with UBB comping up?

But, if they wanted to, they could edit one of these guys into a decent position, while showing Jose in a less favourable light.
This competition is no doubt dead, but I've just had a little of my Josie green on Andrew at 50/1, just in case. There would not be enough value in the price of the other three to interest me.
Report PAKEY August 22, 2010 6:43 PM BST
I've also taken Andrew in the Top Male with a view to recover losses on Stevo.
Report squares August 22, 2010 6:43 PM BST
there's only tonight's show which sounds another big zzzzzzzzzzzzzz anyway, and tomorrow night which will be Anthea Turner serving breakfast (the reek of desperation was overpowering) and Josie having her hair done for about ten hours.  Don't think there will be much of a HL show on Tuesday with 5 interviews and launch of UBB.
Report PAKEY August 22, 2010 6:48 PM BST
Looks like they've weighed in then squares.
With a bit of luck, we will get a decent mix for UBB.
Report squares August 22, 2010 6:54 PM BST
the early lists were too good to be true; the recent ones have been disappointing to say the least.

Don't think much of this hairdresser type, apart from Josie they looked better before he started.  The blokes looks gay as anything.



DaleDiva will surely hack up in this DSB - load of middle aged, overweight women giving it plenty.
Report PAKEY August 22, 2010 7:36 PM BST
You'll have to forgive me as I've no idea who is supposed to be going in, and haven't a clue what a DaleDiva is.
Report five leaves left August 22, 2010 7:37 PM BST
New bbonline poll -

Who do you think deserves to be the series Runner-up?

Andrew     18%
Dave     40%
Joe John     12%
Josie     7%
Mario     22%
Report Mooono August 22, 2010 7:41 PM BST
Has to be Dave people backing Mario are crazy
Report PAKEY August 22, 2010 7:53 PM BST
Having just read the spoiler for tonight's HL show, I've now lumped onto Andrew for Top Male.
Mario basically wanders around in the nude (not a BB winning solution), while Andrew takes centre stage again as the stooge, or the butt of everybody's joke. (not allowed to say no)
I would seriously expect a flip/flop with Mario's price, and with any further meddling from the edit team, a serious assault on Dave's chances.
In Fact, as we have not had one for a while, I think we need a When will....Flip/Flop thread.
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