Betting.Betfair

...it doesn't mean they're not after you. Is Rebecca right to fear Cheryl?

The German philosopher Baron Friedrich Wilhelm Christian Karl Ferdinand Freiherr von Humboldt (Basil to his mates) was a bright old herr. In introducing his essay 'Sphere and Duties of Government', he emphasised one central idea - "the absolute and essential importance of human development in its richest diversity."

Fine words, and a theory which thanks to John Stuart Mill, has stood humankind in pretty good stead ever since. Until now. Until the appalling manipulation of the British population over the weekend, that contrived to remove the mightily diverse Wagner from our screens. Two thrust out Cowell is it? I'll give you two thrust right in that .

Savage editing and having to sing early made a mockery of the show's claims to neutrality. Like the 2010 General Election, the will of the people was largely ignored. Nevertheless, the X Factor still managed to dominate the tabloid headlines this week. Apparently, wikileak revelations have suggested that Cheryl Cole is set to become a judge on American X Factor. Or something like that - we're busy people and don't have time to read the papers properly.

How will this affect her in the UK? Well there are rumours that she may be banned from judging in the States because she was once judged unfavourably here for punching a black woman in the head. Hey, but it was a long time ago. Forgive and forget. You can always get another head.

If she is banned however, the ensuing tsunami of sympathy may be enough to make the 4.6 on her emerging as winning mentor an absolute shoo-in.

Enough of the judges - let's focus on the main contenders. Rebecca - she who sings like a Siamese cat with soul - has been overheard muttering conspiracy theories about Cher Lloyd being groomed for superstardom, whilst she's left alone to sing in front of a mirror in the bogs. Apparently Cheryl spends far more time with the spindly little rapping urchin. Rebecca is however 1.29 to beat Cher et al and finish top 'girl'.

Rebecca's paranoia isn't being helped by Simon repeatedly telling her that she looks nervous on stage. On the positive side however, addled RnB junkie Amy Winehouse has apparently vowed to write a song for her. Acutally, does that qualify as a positive?

Meanwhile, Harry from One Direction has committed the cardinal sin of taking a lover whilst on the show. According to various reports (FT, Economist, WSJ etc), he has been steamrollering her backstage or something. This could cause a hysterical backlash from angry female One Direction fans who are probably regretting getting "Harry Forever" tattoed in 'that' area of their lower backs.


By Eliot Pollak

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The Boston Celtics are the most successful team in NBA history. This legendary team has won a record 17 championships since they were founded in 1946.

The Celtics dominated the league during the late 1950s all the way through the mid 80s winning a record 16 championships in the process. Players like Bill Russell, Larry Bird and John Havlicek created a basketball dynasty that will never be forgotten. These great players were guided by legendary coach and general manager Red Auerbach who won a total of 938 games in 16 glorious seasons.

Auerbach spent most of his career with Boston and was still an executive with the club until his death in 2006 at the age of 89.

After a 22 year drought Boston returned to the big stage to play the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA finals in 2008. The Celtics, led by Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce beat the Lakers 4-2 in a pulsating series.

In the following year the Celtics lost a seven game series to Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals - a defeat that sent a shockwave through the city. There was even a rumour that the current team would be broken up during the summer. Those rumours were unfounded and the original team, with a couple of minor changes, came back last year.

After a poor regular season the Celtics turned things around in the playoffs and made the NBA finals. They eventually lost the series 4-3 to their bitter rivals the Los Angeles Lakers after a titanic struggle. The Celtics led by 13 points at the half but were eventually worn down by a determined Laker offence.
　
During the summer Boston made a concerted effort to strengthen their bench for another crack at the title. Shaquille O'Neal, Delonte West and Jermaine O'Neal were three very shrewd signings made by President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge.
　
All the starters from last year have returned which is very good news for Boston. They have started the season is blistering form and lead the Eastern Conference with a record of 12-4.
　
In the past couple of seasons the Celtics have come up a little short when it mattered. They had every chance to beat the Lakers in Game 7 of the finals last year but their bench capitulated.

This year they have improved strength in depth and are playing with a tremendous amount of early season energy. Garnett has fully recovered from a nagging leg injury and is hungry for one more title before he retires.

I really think this team has a huge chance to win the NBA championship They are the complete package and I will be stunned if they do not make it to the Conference Finals at the very least.

The Celtics are currently priced at a generous 8.6 to win the championship - odds that compare favourably with the Miami Heat who are inexplicably trading at 3.65. The Celtics have already beaten the Heat twice so far this season and have looked the far better team. Make no mistake the Celtics are the team to beat this year.


By Nick Shiambouros

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The snow is falling. More importantly, we've just moved into the 30 day bandwidth for Met Office advance weather forecasts. It's time to consider our 2010 White Christmas bets!

In preparation, I went to a seminar on cyclical recurrence and how to apply this advantageously to betting markets. In the bar afterwards I was in conversation with a Worzel Gummidge lookalike (how do I always attract these characters in the bar after seminars?) who was convinced the current cold snap (and last winter in the UK) was pre-cursor to a 200 year cyclical return to the mini ice age of the 1500 to 1800s in Britain.

" 1813 was the occasion of the last frost fair on the Thames in London and my thinking is that they'll be back as a regular feature of British life by 2013. Winters are going to be a lot more severe from now on. "

He also thought the duplicitous nature of British politics would see a complete LibDem U-turn on its University education policy. If he gets that right perhaps I'll take him more seriously!

Fact is though that 2009/10 was the coldest UK winter for 30 years. The white Christmas market paid out last year which was the second time in six years and the bookmaker records of the last fifty years show that they only expect to pay out ONCE every six years. So patterns and trends ARE changing and perhaps 'Worzel' has a point.

I was driving in from Kendal on Sunday evening as the six black crows circled over Ghyll Scar. That is local weather forecaster's folklore round here for a heavy dump of snow and sure enough, within an hour, the most humungous pregnant black cloud formed and we got six inches in under an hour. Very unusual for November according to records over the past fifty years and further sign perhaps that 'Worzel' is on the right track.

So what do the Met Office say? Their current 30 day forecast predicts " cold likely to continue. Precipitation amounts average or slightly below. Risk of snow in many areas. West and South of England likely to be less cold. "

My six black crows have taken up residence so the Met Office - whose long range predictions have become noticeably more accurate in the digital age - could well be right. Chances of a snowflake on Christmas Day could be about to move from 1 in 6 to a much lesser ratio.

So how and where to bet? Betfair markets allow regional UK investment with Edinburgh and the Castle Weather station boasting the shortest odds on a 'yes' to a snowflake falling sometime in the 24 hours of December 25th. That's 3.6 for a White Xmas in the Scottish capital although interestingly there is some 4.5 around for the 'yes' in Glasgow, where the cathedral is the umpire's destination. Longshot is London, currently available at 5.7 and perhaps not surprisingly, this is the Betfair market with most liquidity and a current over round of just 102%, making it a robust market to play in. The Met Office however are suggesting that London is the most likely to miss the snow and that is born out also by a look at the historical records of the last 56 years, during which time there has only been a London payout at an incidence of 6%. Contrast that with a 26% payout in Glasgow during the same period (15% in Birmingham and 22% in Belfast) and you see where the value lies.

If you are in the cyclical change camp with 'Worzel', that 5.7 on the queen getting a drop of the unique in her Xmas G & T (Buckingham Palace being where the Met station lies) is a decent price - especially with the Met Office long range giving it some encouragement - but personally I'm playing only partially into that scenario and sticking more with my Northern black crows and the historical percentage incidences of Scotland. A snowflake in the Glenfiddich is much more likely and that 4.5 on Glasgow is my idea of a steal.


THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED WHITE XMAS BET:

1pt on a 'Yes' in the Glasgow regional market at 4.5 or greater


By Gary Boswell

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When your team wins a penalty, it is normally a signal for some type of rejoicing to take place. Whilst no side is ever guaranteed to convert all of their penalties, you would expect the majority of spot kicks to fly into the back of the net. Whilst a penalty being awarded isn't quite as good as a goal, it's certainly the next best thing.

This is true of course, unless you support Spurs. When a penalty is awarded at White Hart Lane you hear the normal amount of cheering, but then something very strange occurs.

Slowly, it collectively dawns on the crowd that rather than this being an opportunity for Tottenham to score, it is instead more likely to serve as an opportunity for another player to completely humiliate himself.

Most supporters know exactly who their penalty taker is and who would deputise if the first choice taker was unavailable. Yet for Tottenham fans, every penalty awarded sparks a mass debate over which of Spurs' highly paid professionals is least likely to miss from 12 yards.

Over the last week I have been at White Hart Lane and witnessed two different players miss a penalty. On both occasions I saw several grown men turning away from the action, because they were so sure that the penalty would be missed.

It was pretty obvious to anyone who has followed Jermain Defoe's career that he would spurn his chance to score against Liverpool. He has now missed seven of his last 12 penalties, which is the sort of record of success you would normally associate with someone who had taken their spot kicks while blindfolded.

Defoe has surely now got to be banned from grabbing the ball in such situations, although the alternatives aren't that much better. There can't be many players with more reason to be confident right now than Gareth Bale, but he missed a penalty against Werder Bremen, after Roman Pavlyuchenko fluffed from the spot in Tottenham's game against Blackburn.

Rafael van der Vaart has also missed for Tottenham this season, although as he showed a lot of confidence in the two that he has successfully converted, perhaps it was just an anomaly. Unfortunately, Van der Vaart is now out with an injury for the next month, leaving Spurs without a reliable penalty taker.

So who are the other contenders? Robbie Keane has a good record from the spot, but rarely features in the Spurs first team these days. Niko Kranjcar is another attacking player who is currently out in the cold.

Of the midfielders, Jermaine Jenas and Tom Huddlestone both missed the last time that they took a penalty for Tottenham. Luka Modric scored one for Croatia in Euro 2008, but could be suffering from penalty phobia, after missing in the shoot out that saw his team eliminated by Turkey. Wilson Palacios struggles to pass the ball five yards, so it may be too much to expect him to score from 12...

None of Tottenham's four penalty misses this season have proven to be costly, with Spurs going on to win all of these matches, but if they keep on missing, there's bound to be consequences further down the line.

Harry Redknapp's side are now just a point off fourth place, despite having endured the rigours of a Champions League campaign. Spurs are available at 2.8 to finish in the top four and 32.0 to win the Premier League.

Of course, what Tottenham really need is not just a penalty taker but the sort of striker who can also lead the line in a 4-5-1 formation. If Tottenham can recruit such a player in January, then perhaps their ambitions can be fulfilled.


By Dan Fitch

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I hate feeling sorry for multi-millionaire sportsmen. It's a character flaw which goes beyond preposterous - and that's even before I check my monthly bank statement, or assess my own athletic ability. In fact, I'm going to make it my New Year's resolution to stop. But before I do, permit me one last journey where I scale the heights of Mount Ridiculous and throw myself off its peak... this time for thinking Ernie Els needs a little TLC.

Save your breath, I've heard the riposte. Three Majors, two World Golf Championships and 60 other professional titles to his name, numerous lucrative endorsements, it's not a bad CV. As for the personal side of things... privileged upbringing, attractive wife, sweet kids and a healthy appetite for good food and wine. There are worse fates, I suppose. And I'm living one of them.

Still, things have gotten somewhat more complex for Ernie since he first burst on the golfing scene with his effortless swing and easy-going demeanour. Major success quickly followed and by the age of 27 he had picked up two US Opens and World No.1 status. It was a phenomenal effort for one so young. And he appeared the one "phenom" who was actually delivering on his potential. The year was 1997.

However, in golf, 1997 is remembered for the emergence of the phenom's phenom, Tiger Woods. Woods took his first major, The Masters, in the same year by a staggering nine shots as a lean 21-year-old and blazed a trail of dominance the like of which professional sport has seldom seen. And if Els didn't crumble, he was certainly left in Woods' wake.

The year 2000 proved a most eloquent case in point. Woods won three of the four majors, often by record margins, Els finished second in three. The Big Easy was growing uneasy. For so long the lead composer for a new generation, Els was about to be recast in a supporting role. Now he was doomed to play Salieri to Tiger's Mozart. Cue the violins.

Thirteen solar cycles since Tiger tore up Ernie's script and not much has changed when it comes to golf's premier prizes. In fact, the affable South African has only managed to add one major (the 2002 Open Championship) to his rollcall of honour. Woods has 14. Even Phil Mickelson, America's original nearly man, now owns more majors than Els.

Indeed, Mickelson's belated breakthrough at the 2004 Masters set Big Ernie back even further. While the left-hander was getting lost among the azaleas of Augusta National, Els produced a dazzling final round of 67 to set what appeared an insurmountable target. The only salient question was: did they have a green jacket big enough? But Mickelson was not to be denied, posting an astonishing five birdies over the closing seven holes to make up a three-shot deficit. Els was left marooned on the putting green to a cacophony of cheers from the partisan galleries. He has never come close since, which is odd around a track which plays to his strengths. And after a never-nearer 18th at Augusta this season, Els left the course in a state of disarray, expounding that the place simply held too many bad memories for him.

Things have been tricky off the course, too. First there was reconstructive knee surgery in 2005. Then four years ago, the bombshell: doctors finally discovered what had been holding back his slow-developing son, Ben. Autism was the diagnosis and it hit his whole family hard. A private person with a public profile, Els was initially reluctant to talk about his boy's acute condition. But the initial shock soon turned to understanding, and he now champions a charity for the neural disorder. Els For Autism.

An ensuing relocation from Surrey to Florida in order to facilitate his boy's therapy also bodes well for Els' golf - especially on the US Tour where he got back to winning ways with back-to-back victories earlier this year. This is surely only the beginning. At 41, Els is entering a stage of his career that can yet prove his most prolific. After all, it happened for Vijay Singh and Kenny Perry, and they only had a fraction of his ability.

So watch out for any fancy prices chalked up on the European and in particular US Money Lists when more liquidity appears over the coming weeks. More immediately, though, consider the South African for this week's homecoming at the Nedbank Challenge where he's a stand-out 6.4 to back. No-one plays the Gary Player Country Club better than Els (a three-time winner and two-time runner-up) and he'll benefit from the warm and fuzzies of home comforts and old friends. Oh, and then there's the small matter of $1.25m for winning before boarding his private jet back to the States.

Yes, this is another multi-millionaire who neither wants nor needs my sympathy.


By Romily Evans

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England will be feeling pretty chuffed with themselves and quite rightly so after digging themselves out of a massive hole at the ground nicknamed the 'Gabbatoir.' Starting their second innings 221 runs behind at a ground which in the past has been as helpful to them as a traffic warden with piles, England's top three gave a batting masterclass that secured a draw.

Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott were magnificent, making more records than the Beatles, as they taunted the Australian attack. Peter Siddle had claimed before the Test that the Aussie bowling attack was the best in the world and on their second innings showing he could be right - if you were to take out South Africa, India, Sri Lanka and England. You could probably throw in the rest of the 'Big Eight' and while you're at it - Zimbabwe and Bangladesh as well!

The confidence that the English supporters felt prior to the Test started to wane after their side's poor first innings display with the bat and was then vaporised by the Michael Hussey and Brad Haddin stand that guided Australia to a total that looked a couple of light years away - 481. All that was turned on its head courtesy of the magnificent fightback and England fans are not only confident once again, they're downright cocky!

But how will the players be feeling? It must have been a subdued hotel after day three with a lot of rallying cries being made and tons of soul-searching going on. They responded brilliantly and Andy Flower will be keeping their feet on the ground to make sure that they are mentally prepared for Adelaide on Friday. The players will be keeping it in perspective, getting out of jail in the manner that they did might feel like a win, but it wasn't. All they did was draw a Test match and they know all the hard work still lies ahead.

The team meetings this week will be interesting. There's no doubt that England 'walked into one,' the Hussey/Haddin partnership which could easily have proved a match winner and without which Australia would really have struggled. Lesser sides (including many English teams of the past) would have folded but England stood tall. Confidence is a state of mind and they have many positives to take out of the first Test which Flower will be using to inspire. But...

England won't be thrilled with their bowling. There were however, some positives. Steve Finn's figures of 6-125 were especially pleasing but the attack bowled 184.4 overs and only took 11 wickets over the whole match. That's not a great stat but it compares favourably to the Aussies, who bowled 228.5 overs for the same wicket return.

The lack of wickets is a worry and the Adelaide track is forecast to be as tame as the one that they've just been playing on, so there's not going to be any additional help coming from the surface. Flower has to get inside the bowler's heads and make them believe they can take twenty wickets this time around.

The betting is really close, with Australia at 3.65 to win the second Test, England available at 3.75 to back and the draw at 2.16 because of the batsman-friendly wicket and the blunt bowling attacks. The series betting has fluctuated, England started the series at 2.9 to prevail over five tests but drifted out to 4.2 after day three of the first Test. After the top three batsmen's heroics they are now a much more realistic 2.52.

This is going to be a really tight series. Andy Flower knows that and he'll be making sure that the players are mentally sound going forward. There's no room for cockiness or arrogance, what is needed is the same kind of gritty determination that pulled them back from the brink at the Gabba.

Opportunities to win Test matches are going to be very difficult to come by. Australia had a gilt edged one but blew it, England will take great heart from that, it might just be enough to give them the mental edge.


By Frank Gregan

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"It's the most open Premier League in years" - everyone's saying it so it must be true. The top six has a familiar look to it though, except for the presence of Bolton. Wanderers were held 2-2 at home by Blackpool this weekend but given Blackpool's performances so far this season such a result no longer necessarily represents two points dropped.

Owen Coyle's side have been going about their business in efficient and consistent fashion, losing just twice, which is less than all the sides above them save Manchester United. In Kevin Davies and Johan Elmander they have a front pair that boasts 14 league goals already, a return most would have predicted for a season's work rather than 15 games worth.

So after a 14th place finish last term, Coyle seems to have turned muck into brass at the Reebok and you could get your hands on some of it as there are decent prices to be had in a number of markets. Odds of 1.73 for a top ten finish isn't bad; other clubs may seem more attractively priced and it's easy to succumb to the temptation of longer odds but Bolton's stats stack up very well. Whereas other teams' results have been up and down, their's haven't.

The Trotters have yet to lose consecutive games and their positions in the league tables of goals scored (fourth), goals conceded (eighth), home form (eighth) and away form (fourth) are very closely aligned to their actual league position. Despite this model consistency they remain unfancied at 5.0 for a top six finish with the likes of Aston Villa and Everton, who are respectively six and seven points behind them, preferred by punters who are living in the past.

One market where their form has been recognised is the Handicap win but 4.8 at +40 points is still a good price especially when Blackpool, West Brom, Wigan and Wolves are the only teams who are given more points with the last two already six and nine points back with handicaps taken into account.

Talisman is not the word most people would associate with Kevin Davies but he is undoubtedly Bolton's. The reaction to his England call up demonstrated how unfashionable he is, but at club level there are few more consistent performers and age is certainly proving no barrier. It's true that over the course of his career his name has never featured highly in the goalscoring charts but the 33-year-old has netted six times already and when you consider he's the first name on the manager's team sheet, is hardly ever injured (the last five league seasons have brought an average of 34.4 starts with the last two both boasting 37), and that he takes penalties, that fact could be about to change.

Leading overall goalscorer is too much of a stretch but leading English goalscorer isn't and 8.2 for him to be just that catches the eye. Darren Bent, Andy Carroll, Wayne Rooney, and Jermaine Defoe are all preferred currently but Rooney's problems on and off the pitch are well documented, Defoe's been injured and has yet to get off the mark, Bent has missed games for the first time in 18 months and Carroll, although he leads the way with a tally of eight, is a newcomer and his staying power over the course of a whole season in terms of form and fitness is unknown.


By Andrew Clarke

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The most exciting Premier League race in years took another unexpected turn yesterday as Arsenal and Manchester United both actually won. While the Gunners went 2-0 up at half-time, staged their predictable wobble (twice) before overcoming Aston Villa 4-2, United stepped up to the plate with a 7-1 mauling of Blackburn Rovers. Whatever next? Chelsea beating Newcastle?

The win was a welcome return to goalscoring form for Dimitar Berbatov, their skilful Bulgarian striker, who faded into obscurity after scoring a hat-trick against Liverpool and has in the interim been linked with a potential move to Juventus in the January transfer window.

His five-goal performance against Blackburn will certainly have been noted by the Bianconeri, who were held to their third 1-1 draw in four matches yesterday, and some might say that United could do worse than offload their streaky striker while his stock is high. The Juve deal will be dead in the water now, though, given that United have signed Danish goalkeeper Anders Lindegaard; any swoop for Berbatov was to be based on the high-earning Gianluigi Buffon moving in the opposite direction and United no longer need a shot-stopper.

So Berbatov will stay, to score yet more goals in maybe another 11 matches time, the cynics will carp. The 29-year-old is often criticised for not scoring regularly enough - and he doesn't. In his four previous seasons in England he has only once managed to score more than 12 league goals ― in 2007/08 when he managed 15 for Tottenham. Doubtless Sir Alex Ferguson was hoping to rediscover the player who netted 57 Bundesliga goals in his final three seasons with Bayer Leverkusen when he shelled out £30.75 million for an international striker approaching his prime. But Berbatov is more than just a striker - in fact he isn't really a striker in the traditional sense at all. He is a naturally gifted footballer whose natural diffidence, which is sometimes mistaken for indifference, has too often seen him overshadowed by big players with big egos, such as Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney.

Berbatov has been happy to play a supporting role to these stars and developed into an unselfish all-round team player who thrives on goal making as much as goal-getting, and in the modern game, particularly in a free-flowing team such as United, who often play one up front or a withdrawn striker in a two-pronged attack, an assist is as important as a goal. Berbatov turned provider in 10 league matches last season (he scored 12 league goals).

The other point to make about Berbatov, who has 11 league goals to his name and is 4.2 to finish top goalscorer this season, is that he has forged an excellent understanding with Rooney over the last three seasons. It's no coincidence that he hadn't scored since last partnering the England striker, who like Berbatov, is also as comfortable at creating as he is scoring (indeed the calibre of Rooney can be measured by his four assists in five league starts this campaign and, better still, the seven assists he created to complement his 26 goals last season).

The suggestion is then that United are only just getting their motor running. They have been playing badly without once losing a league game and are ready to roll now that Rooney and Berbatov are dovetailing once more. Of course it isn't just about the front two - Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic are also getting reacquainted at the back and the unsung Park Ji-Sung has contributed hugely to improved displays, after being given a regular run in the side following injury to Ryan Giggs.

United have enjoyed four wins and two draws with the Korean in the side, with Park providing three goals, an assist and tireless energy to a United side now 3.15 to win the league. Those odds are not unreasonable given that Chelsea 2.3 appear to be self-imploding, Arsenal 6.2 can't defend for toffee and Manchester City 15.0 are the most expensively-assembled crown green bowls team known to man.

On the other hand, should we really be getting sucked in by a performance that was as much down to the abject defending of an injury-ravaged Blackburn side as it was United's delightful football? United were good, particularly Nani, Rooney and Berbatov, but then most Championship sides would have beaten Blackburn yesterday (12.0 to be relegated) so complicit were they in their own downfall.

The fact is, anything other than a United win yesterday would have been deemed a shock result - and perhaps even Sam Allardyce was trying to make a very convincing case for his new employers to buy some new players in January. It certainly wasn't a convincing case for prospective new employers. "I am not suited to Bolton or Blackburn," said Big Sam in September. "I would be more suited to Inter Milan or Real Madrid. I would win the double or the league every time." After Saturday's performance, Rafa and José won't be losing any sleep.


By Richard Aikman

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An old colleague of mine used to wonder at snooker's propensity for propagating the long-time survival of the disturbed, erratic genius. I reasoned that its non-combative nature was perhaps the genetic source. After all, it's hardly in the spirit of this noble art to throw a punch, smash a ball past a rival, tackle them headlong, or even ride them off the road.

Instead, when your opponent is attacking you (or "break-building", as I believe is the popular term) you just have to sit back in your seat and take it quietly. And in the absence of any cathartic way to fight back or rage, many exponents of the game - above all, the supremely talented ones - can be left with some unresolved issues.

The progenitor of the species was Alex Higgins, snooker's original bad boy. His towering but tottering talent eventually came crashing down around him in a heady mix of delusion, remorse and alcohol. The Hurricane whipped his audiences into a frenzy and divided public opinion like few sportsmen before him, as he struggled to discover whether his genius was a gift or a curse. But for all his dazzling play (two World Championships hardly do justice to his skills), wayward tendencies and curious sound bites, Higgins became enduringly The People's Champion.

Even before Higgins was gathered to God, another was there to take up his mantle. And Jimmy White enjoyed a gentler DNA to his own flawed genius, which made him more endearing. No less talented, his genius with the cue was never matched with the killer instinct to pull off a World Championship.

Of course, The Whirlwind had the misfortune to ply his trade during the game's golden era, where the more prosaic and stable minds of Steve Davis and Hendry would help render him The Crucible's bridesmaid no fewer than six times. White was the modern-day Sisyphus, condemned by the gods of the green baize to forever push his boulder up a mountainside only for it to roll back down just as it reached the peak.

Who could find joy in such a struggle where one is always left a ****-paper shy of greatness? Booze and depression were inevitably the demons that circled, but so pure was his love of the game that White has been able to return to the battlefield time and time again. His eternal labour continues.

However, neither of these two geniuses was forced to scale the brick wall of neuroses that faced Ronnie O'Sullivan. The Rocket has taken characteristics, both disreputable and redeeming, from his forefathers, added his own, and then fused them with an ability that surpasses all before it.

O'Sullivan's own father also brought a heavy burden to bear. Ronnie Senior served 18 years for murder and was only released this week, having been imprisoned when his son was 16. Since then, O'Sullivan has often struggled with guilt. His performances and titles at the table were a way to keep his dad going through the dark times. So if he lost - or didn't win in style - more excruciating self-blame and reproach would follow for failing his father.

A spell in The Priory and some psychotherapy-speak have at least saved snooker's major draw from himself and papered over the cracks of his tormented talent. The game certainly needs Ronnie at a time when its reinvention is required to attract a public basking in quick-fix culture. O'Sullivan has already proven himself the master of the game's new high-speed formats like Power Snooker (snooker's answer to 20/20 cricket) and the stop-clock of The Premier League. The latter competition draws to its thrilling climax this weekend on Sky Sports and O'Sullivan is rightfully installed the 2.02 favourite to win his seventh crown (and 1.47 to beat Neil Robertson in Saturday's semi-final).

No event is better tailored to O'Sullivan's skills than the Premier League. It diminishes his lofty expectations for perfection, alleviates his boredom, and makes a virtue of his ambidextrous cuing and rapid-fire play. The layers among you will doubtless counter that he too readily sows the seeds of his own destruction. You may be right. But odds against for a genius in a field of four seem fair enough to me. Even a mad genius.

By Romilly Evans

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Never one to keep his opinions to himself, the Betfair Contrarian tells us why red-hot favourite Susan Philipsz will be disappointed when the winner of the Turner Prize is announced.


Over the course of the last six months, the Contrarian has provided winning advice on subjects as wide-ranging as motor sport, football, greyhound racing, reality TV, the Eurovision Song Contest and Labour leadership contests and the success has made him more unbearable than ever. He's so confident right now that he's even branching into the world of art, explaining why Turner Prize favourite Susan Philipsz 1.77 is going to be left disappointed next month...


She's a lady

It's very rare for a female artist to receive the Turner Prize, with only three being chosen since its inception in 1984. All but one of the last dozen winners have been male and that's despite at least one woman featuring on the four-person shortlist in each of the last eight years and 11 of the 12 since Gillian Wearing's 1997 triumph.


Her work isn't visual art

According to the Turner Prize website, "The exhibition presents the very best of current British visual art with the intention of stimulating a lively exchange of opinions". Susan Philipsz' work therefore doesn't meet their own criteria, as the focus of the Scot's "sound sculptures" - in which she attempts to alter the perception of a location through the medium of singing - is on the aural impact of the audience, rather than what is actually seen. She described her art in a recent Guardian interview by saying: "It's all about how the emotive and psychological effects of sound can heighten your awareness of the space you are in." In terms of her visual display at Tate Britain, all there is to look at are the speakers that are playing the music, which of course aren't supposed to be the focal point.


She isn't a great singer

That's not the Contrarian being cruel, that's Philipsz' own admission, as she has been quoted saying that she hates her own voice. A great deal has been made in the press about how the beauty of her "installations" is that she has an untrained voice, however quite how someone whose art is focussed on their singing can win the most prestigious art award going without specialising in what they do is unclear. The Booker Prize is never likely to be handed to a self-knowingly average author and the Academy Award for Best Actor doesn't just go to anyone capable of delivering a semi-believable performance. So it would be staggering if the Turner Prize was won by someone who openly acknowledges such significant shortcomings.


She's not old enough...

Despite being born in 1965, Philipsz is far from the oldest of this year's nominees and that doesn't bode well as in each of the last three years, the most experienced contender has been crowned the winner. The logic of the jury is perhaps that younger challengers who are unsuccessful still have opportunities to earn recognition again, and that by at least showing that they are impressed with their work, they are motivating them to reach even higher levels.


...and it's Dalwood's last chance

Only artists under the age of 50 can win the Turner Prize, meaning that this is 4.8 second favourite Dexter Dalwood's one and only shot at the honour. In his favour are a number of factors besides the aforementioned age trend. He is English, as were seven of the last eight winners, and was born in Bristol. Five of the last seven victors hailed from the south - two from London, two from Essex and one from Surrey. In addition, his works are paintings and while there was a lengthy period in which painters didn't fare too well, two of the last four winners incorporated the skill in their efforts.

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