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Last week's three results did little to disprove the theory that this winter close season tends to be the most prosperous time of the year for form students and favourite backers.

Lee Westwood, delivered in style at the Nedbank Challenge while Geoff Ogilvy begun his successful Australian Open bid as second favourite. If only Tiger Woods hadn't, unbelievably, surrendered a four-shot lead in his own tournament, there would doubtless be plenty of big-hitters sitting on a pile of cash right now. The sensible ones will surely have greened up when they had the chance.

After studying this week's two events, I'm convinced we're set for a similar story. Firstly, there's the Australian PGA Championship, which always seems to be a straightforward puzzle. All of the last six champions started the week amongst the leading handful in the betting, and all bar three of the 31 players to have made the top-five in those renewals fulfilled my 'golden rule' for Australian triple-crown events. To repeat, the golden rule states that calculations in these events should be limited to the relatively small number of candidates who have shown prowess overseas.

Separating the front-three at Coolum, however, is far from straightforward. Ogilvy deserves favouritism after his runaway success in the Australian Open, and while back-to-back winners are generally rare, there are encouraging precedents. Both Peter Lonard and Robert Allenby completed the Open/PGA double in 2004 and 2005 respectively.

Alternatively, there's Adam Scott, who again showed his prowess in rain-soaked conditions to win the high-class Singapore Open last month. Given that Coolum is currently under water, he should be licking his lips. With four PGA titles this century, Allenby supporters could also plausibly argue that their man deserves favouritism, although his title defence at the Nedbank was nothing to get excited about.

Though I'm confident one of them will win, (or if not, fourth favourite John Senden has rock-solid credentials), the best bet of the week comes in South Africa, where there is no dispute about the favourite's identity. Charl Schwartzel starts at just 7.6 to win the Alfred Dunhill Championship, which looks short at first glance, until factoring in the opposition. Compared to previous years, when the likes of Els, Goosen, Clark, Immelman and the odd overseas star could usually be relied upon to turn up, this field is extremely weak. Apart from Open champion Louis Oosthuizen, Schwartzel is the only member of the world's top-100.

Since this event moved to Leopard Creek six years ago, the formbook has tended to stand up, if not to quite the same degree as the Australian PGA. Three of the six champions were amongst the first three in the betting; Schwartzel, Els and Richard Sterne. That would be four, had Ernie not blown the 2007 renewal with one of the most infamous final hole collapses of all-time. Moreover, the places have been largely predictable, none more so than Schwartzel himself, who has been runner-up three times since that win in 2004. The key feature to scoring at Leopard Creek is the four par-fives, and it is here that big-hitting Schwartzel has run up most of his red numbers.

The important point to remember with Charl is that he is still improving. He was only 20-years-old when winning here, and already carrying around a big reputation. It has taken longer than many expected for him to develop, but 2010 was easily his best ever season. He's long been established as a regular candidate in Europe, but this year he started to produce on the world stage in the biggest events. Schwartzel made the top-30 in all four majors, finished runner-up in the WGC event at Doral, and third at the high-class Houston Open. Again, this is a series of results that amongst this field, only Oosthuizen could even dream of matching in the foreseeable future.

The consequence of this improved campaign is that European fans are going to see a lot less of Schwartzel, as he's decided to ply his trade predominantly in the States next year. Now he'll be getting used to PGA Tour conditions, there will be worse outside bets in the majors. He begun this final season as a 'European' player with back-to-back wins in co-sanctioned African events, and is strongly fancied to bow out in similar style.


By Paul Krishnamurty

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There was a kid at one of my old schools called Harry Hastings. It might have been something to do with his heritage given his name, 1066 and all that, but the kid was a crack shot when it came to using the plastic ruler like a sling shot. He was brilliant, he could hit the back of a teacher's head from 15 metres which quickly gained him hero status. It was a sad, sad day for us all when he was banned from using a plastic ruler and was instead given a rigid wooden one and told "if you can't use a plastic ruler sensibly then you are not using it at all!"

The ECB might have to follow the lead of stressed out inner-city teachers and come down hard on habitual offenders that can't use things sensibly. Kevin Pietersen has had an awesome second Test, notching a double hundred and taking that vital wicket with the last ball before stumps on day four. However, he was once again making headlines for all the wrong reasons prior to the Test getting underway, due to his carelessness with a hand held device and a Twitter application.

He openly criticised the new curator of the Adelaide Oval, Damian Hough, calling his failure to ensure that the players could practice outdoors "PATHETIC!" "What should a groundsman make sure he does 2 days out from a test match???? Cover the nets when it rains maybe???" Hardly a tweet designed to enhance the relationship between the two countries vying for Ashes glory!

It's not the first time that KP has let himself down on Twitter. There was his infamous outburst when he was left out of the One Day side against Pakistan and he vented his frustrations in the public domain. And that is the crux of the matter, the problem isn't that Pietersen felt bitter and betrayed when left out of the England side or that he has the hump with an Aussie groundsman, it's the fact that he has put that information into the public domain.

Tweeting is a dangerous game (ask One Show host Jason Manford) because there is a cosiness about it, it's almost like sending a text to a mate and we all know what we put in texts to our trusted pals. Unfortunately, followers on Twitter are not your mates. In fact in Pietersen's case he probably knows only a very few of them personally.

Once he has pressed the 'tweet' button that's it, his thoughts are out there for the whole world to see. There's no time for quiet reflection, no thought given to any repercussions, it's a simple case of composing a short message, chuck in a couple of expletives and put the world to rights. Totally crackers and guaranteed to incur the wrath of team-mates and opponents alike as well as ensuring that he is about as popular with Australian sports fans as the FIFA World Cup bid delegates!

Enough is surely enough and the ECB need to do something about it. They can't single Pietersen out for special treatment and ban only him from using Twitter, they will have to impose a blanket ban on all of the squad. It might seem a little extreme but there is no way that the ECB would allow any of the players to give a TV interview and be disrespectful to opposing officials or even their own selectors. There really is no difference between that and putting out an offensive Tweet.

KP showed that he didn't need an outdoor practice session with an innings that has silenced his critics and will do wonders for his confidence. It was pointed out in this column before the Ashes started that he could turn out to be a steal at a big price to be the top batsman of the series. His odds have shortened considerably but even so 7.0 should be attainable which is still tempting.

As for the Twitter application it's the same as a plastic ruler - dangerous if not used sensibly!


By Frank Gregan

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They say that taking a step back can be a good thing. Get away from the day to day hurly burly, and you can sometimes look again with a clear perspective.

Let me tell you it doesn't work as far as the Premier League is concerned. Coming back cold (both literally and figuratively) after three weeks Down Under, this season seems to have turned into the most confusing ever.

Take Chelsea as an example. When I left home, Carlo Ancelotti looked relaxed and happy and his team of Double Winners were pretty much guaranteed to retain their domestic title. Now a 1-1 draw at home to Everton means they are four games without a win, have a group of players sulking over the exit of the popular Ray Wilkins, and Roman Abramovich seems to be in the mood for more meddling.

A club which had been backed as tight as 1.44 to finish top of the pile has now slid out to 3.0, and Ancelotti faces a three-game run against Spurs, Manchester United and Arsenal that could easily end with the Russian Oligarch seeking his seventh manager in as many years.

But then look at the top four and there's nothing straightforward about any of them. Manchester United are now 2.92 favourites after sticking seven past Blackburn a week ago, and then taking a weekend off because their game at Blackpool was postponed. There are still too many unanswered questions to be confident about backing them, however. Not least that Wayne Rooney wasn't among the scorers in that rout and is hitting half way in the season with only one League goal, and that a penalty, to his name.

Arsenal are the new leaders and now 5.0 to end seven years itching for a title win, with Sami Nasri in dazzling form scoring a delightful double in a 2-1 win against Fulham.

But even that asked questions of their long term potential with Mark Hughes raising questions about the strength of the centre back pairing of Sebastien Squillaci and Laurent Koscielny. Having Jack Wilshere trumpeting on his Twitter page about being top would worry me too - as Rio Ferdinand replied "only shout about being top when it's the last day of the season. . that's when u pick up the medal . . tick tock!"

Manchester City remain valid contenders, priced at 10.0 after a 1-0 win over Bolton kept them three points off the pace. Yet another row between Roberto Mancini and Carlos Tevez, angry at being subbed, doesn't augur well for them though. And neither do the fancy dress pictures of Joe Hart, Gareth Barry and Adam Johnson on the way to the club Christmas party. City still rely totally on the tempestuous Tevez for their goals - he's 4.6 favourite to win the Golden Boot after reaching double figures for the campaign with a fourth minute strike.

You'd think the only certainty is that those four will make up the Champions League places in one order or another. There's a gap opening up ahead of fifth placed Tottenham after they let a lead slip late on in a 1-1 draw at Birmingham. But the return to fitness of Jermain Defoe will give Harry Redknapp some more options and 3.05 to repeat last season's late surge, doesn't look a bad price.

Things aren't much more clear at the other end of the table. West Ham's 1-0 defeat at Sunderland yesterday leaves them 1.73 favourites for the drop, but the arrival of Wally Downes behind the scenes does seem to have made a difference and the gap to survival is still relatively small. Wolves, whose 3-0 defeat at Blackburn was their fifth in six games, are 1.76 and look the most certain to stay stranded but last year they came up with a big run in the second half of the season and you wouldn't rule out the same thing happening again.

Wigan, who twice came from behind to get a 2-2 draw with Stoke, are the other odds-on side at 1.8 but their knack of grabbing


By Ralph Ellis

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The Lord wraps up the big stories from the world of greyhound racing with a look at the big race action and good news for greyhound racing in Northern Ireland.


Thursday's live-on-Sky Eclipse final features not one, not two, but three Derby champions! The winners of this year's English and Scottish Derbys will go to traps in the form of Bandicoot Tipoki and Nambisco, while the 2009 Derby hero Kinda Ready has also made the final. It is a fantastic comeback from Mark Wallis's champion who famously denied Fear Zafonic in the shadow of the post at Wimbledon to claim Classic glory some 19 months ago. Lightly-raced since, there has been an Irish Derby campaign and wins at Monmore, Shelbourne and now Nottingham in heat and semi-final of the Eclipse. For good measure, Kinda Ready went quicker than the winners of the other two semi-final winners Nambisco, who led home Bandicoot Tipoki and Mcgahon Toots.

Trap draw for Thursday's final is: 1 Mcgahon Toots, 2 Nambisco, 3 Bandicoot Tipoki, 4 Kinda Ready, 5 Ballymac William, 6 Tudor Prince.

Sky's season of greyhound racing coverage is set to break new ground in 2011 with a trip to Northern Ireland. A date in the summer has been set and the event will be a Derby-type affair, with a sizeable five-figure first prize. One source said: "There have been visits to Shelbourne Park in the past for the Irish Derby final. "Hopefully this event will act as a sort of springboard for encouraging other major Irish events to be covered live on Sky."

The Oaks at Wimbledon has a new schedule after Friday's planned quarter-finals were unable to be run because of a frozen track. The late decision of the management has caused quite a stir, with it seems temperatures dipping rapidly at dusk on Friday caused the problem. The new format for the bitches' Classic is the second round on Tuesday, the semi-finals on Friday and the final on Sky on Tuesday, December 15.

The Greyhound of the Year race is set to take a few twists over the coming days. Long-time favourite for the title Jimmy Lollie missed an intended engagement in the Scurry Gold Cup final at Belle Vue because of the weather and now heads to Nottingham on Monday (December 6) for the heats of a top-class National Sprint.  And, of course, a busy period at the Colwick Park venue continues on Sky on Thursday with the Eclipse final which features Greyhound of the Year contenders Bandicoot Tipoki and Nambisco.

Monmore shares the open-race centre-stage with Nottingham on Monday with a host of open-races making up the Xmas Festival at the Wolverhampton venue.  The finals, like the heats on SIS and into the country's betting shops, take place on Friday.

Finally, the Betfair Prestige at Hall Green will kick off the 2011 big-race season with heats on Tuesday, January 4, over 645m.  Worth £4,000 to the winner for two runs, the Betfair Prestige also kicks off Sky's new season of live racing with a gala supporting card to the decider on Tuesday, January 11.


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Not for the first time in midweek Steve Claridge's BBC radio co-commentary on the Carling Cup quarter-finals made for irritating listening.

While Arsenal were struggling to break down Wigan, Claridge opined that Arsène Wenger's preference for fielding second-string and reserve team players away at places like Stoke was disrespectful towards the 6,000 or so supporters who pay good money to travel all that way on a week night.

After the Gunners had dispatched Wigan 2-0 at the Emirates, the former Portsmouth striker subsequently agreed with a caller who said that Arsenal's squad depth isn't as shallow as once it was and that the Gunners are now more of a force to be reckoned with these days. Hmm, I wonder why that is, Steve?

Wenger has long claimed that his refusal to buy his way out of trouble is based on a belief that emerging players need the space to flourish. Only the Frenchman really knows whether this is in fact true, or whether in reality his hand has been forced all the while by budgetary limitations. Either way, for the long game to prevail, Wenger has needed time. Time for the players to grow and learn; time for young fledglings to make naïve mistakes; time at the cost of a genuine title tilt for five years.

Wenger has long used the Carling Cup to blood fresh youngsters and away trips to Stoke are exactly the sort of test that is required to see who stands up to be counted. At 16 years and 177 days Cesc Fabregas became Arsenal's youngest ever player in a League Cup tie against Rotherham, in a side that included fellow debutants Justin Hoyte, Jerome Thomas, Gael Clichy, Graham Stack and Ryan Smith. If you don't blood your most promising players in the Carling Cup, when will you?

Well, actually, Wenger has begun to use every competition going to see what his young bucks are made of. Last season Aaron Ramsey made 18 league appearances and equalled his previous year's best of six Champions League sorties before sustaining the leg-break which sidelined him for nine months. Arsenal have also started farming out players to Championship and Premier League outfits to see how they fare when exposed to the cut and thrust of the professional game away from the home comforts of London Colney.

Ramsey, for example, is currently speeding his recovery with a loan spell at Nottingham Forest, Henri Lansbury (another victim of a long-term injury) is serving his apprenticeship at Norwich City, while Jack Wilshere was fast-tracked last term at Bolton.

At last Wenger is beginning to reap the fruits of his long-term strategy. Now, extraordinary player though he is, the Gunners are not so dependent on Fabregas. The Spaniard no longer has to bale his side out on a weekly basis because the likes of Jack Wilshere and Alex Song are coming of age. In fact, over the months in which they have had to make do without Thomas Vermaelen, Tomas Rosicky, Theo Walcott, Robin van Persie and Nicklas Bendtner, their squad mates have gained vital experience - because Wenger has trusted them.

Most impressively of all, midfielder Samir Nasri has stepped up to the plate. Before this campaign the Frenchman had only shown occasional flickers of brilliance, but this term, his third since signing as a callow 21-year-old, the Frenchman has started to fulfil the promise that convinced Wenger to spend £11m to prize him away from Marseille.

Possessing a fleetness of foot and mind matched only by the very best players in the division, Nasri has developed the confidence to express his unpredictable skills. With eight league goals to his name already, including both in Arsenal's table-topping 2-1 defeat of Fulham, the France international is showing the sort of consistency and leadership that has been missing whenever Fabregas has been - not to mention finishing that makes his 50.0 to finish top Premier League goalscorer a bet worth considering.

Of course, so brittle is their defence that it would be madness to suggest that Arsenal, who are 1.62 to break their five-year trophy doubt by lifting the Carling Cup and in to 4.9 (from 6.2 a week ago) to win the Premier League, will go on to win the title, even in this maddest of seasons. Chelsea (out to 3.05) and Manchester United 2.88 will have plenty yet to say about that. But it all makes for an intriguing state of affairs ahead of the latest league leaders' visit to Old Trafford next week, when, probably without Fabregas, Arsenal hope to take another significant next step in their evolution.


By Richard Aikman

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All the talk in snooker at the moment is for faster formats, fewer frames and quicker matches but the UK Championship, with its two session contests, will provide a significant test. It is for this reason that, since its first staging in 1977, it has produced so few shock winners, and the 2010 event seems likely to end in victory for one of the usual suspects.

Last season I tipped Ding Junhui, who duly did the business. This season I'm tempted by Shaun Murphy, the champion two years ago and always a dangerman, even though his lack of consistency sometimes lets him down. This was evident in the Premier League last weekend. Having played superbly to beat Marco Fu in the semi-finals, his game went to pieces in the final and he was hammered by Ronnie O'Sullivan.

Murphy, though, has had a good season so far. He finished top of the order of merit for the new Players Tour Championship, a new series of largely under-the-radar tournaments that have kept players sharp. He is unlikely to encounter too much resistance in the opening round in Telford from Northern Ireland's Patrick Wallace, who has played on television only rarely, since his surprise run to the quarter-finals of the 2001 World Championship.

Having gone through a difficult divorce, Murphy is now nicely settled in Lancashire with a new girlfriend and solid set of mates. As one of only ten players to do the world and UK double it's clear he relishes the major events. He finds himself in the same quarter as world champion Neil Robertson. The Aussie is world champion and world no.1, a status he underlined by winning the last ranking title, the World Open, but his record in the UK Championship is nothing to write home about, with a quarter-final appearance in 2005 his best performance in the game's second biggest tournament. Murphy represents better value at 12.0 for the title.

Another player worth supporting is Mark Williams, the UK champion in 1999 and 2002 and back playing the sort of snooker that got him to top spot in the world rankings a decade ago. Williams landed the China Open title last season - his first major trophy for four years - and he is back in the top eight. He should come through against Mark Davis, a much improved player in the last year but still not as good on TV as he is in the qualifiers, and Williams would also be favourite against Stephen Hendry or Jimmy White in the last 16.

After his victory in the Premier League last weekend many can't see past O'Sullivan, but I would offer a few words of caution before parting with any cash. O'Sullivan himself admitted that the longer format of the UK Championship is "a different ball game" to the shorter format of the Premier League, which is played as a series of one night stands. Two session "best of seventeens" over nine days is not the preferred formula for a player who struggles with boredom at the best of times. Plus, unlike in the league there's no shot clock, which clearly favours the instinctive genius that is the Rocket.

That's not to say he can't win the title - he's done so four times before - but I'm not sure the Premier League has any bearing on what will happen in Telford. The good news for O'Sullivan fans is that he is in a genuinely good frame of mind following the recent release from jail of his father, Ronnie senior. How long this will last, though, is anyone's guess.

His match against Stuart Bingham looks like one of four first round bankers, along with Murphy to beat Wallace, Robertson to beat Rory McLeod and Ali Carter to overcome Mark Joyce, who won four qualifying matches but who has only a handful of TV appearances under his belt. Put these together in a Betfair Multiple when the individual match markets go up.

Top 16 seeds who look vulnerable include Graeme Dott, who faces the much-improved Martin Gould, a player with a deadpan expression but a deadly attacking playing style. Tom Ford failed to beat Mark Allen on his Crucible debut in last season's World Championship but may fair better this time round, particularly as their match is not on TV.

And what of Hendry v White? One of modern snooker's greatest rivalries returns some 24 years after they first played as professionals. Hendry has of course dished out plenty of misery for White and his vast army of supporters down the years, including four world final defeats, but comes into this match mired in a scramble to keep his elite top 16 place and avoid future trips to the qualifiers. It would be a delicious irony if it was White who condemned him to this fate, and it's a real possibility given the Whirlwind's recent form. He played superbly to qualify and is finally a world champion in his own right, having just won the revived World Seniors Championship. White won their last meeting in a ranking event at the 2004 European Open but Hendry leads 33-18 in their personal head to head.


By David Hendon

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Oscar Wilde once said that England and America were two countries separated by a common language. This appears to be particularly true at Thanksgiving, the stateside holiday just passed where Americans, erm, give thanks and pass the turkey in honour of their pilgrim fathers. In England, it's an altogether more contemplative time where we mourn the loss of the colonies.

Michael Vick is neither English nor a turkey, but there's been much more to contemplate than celebrate in the recent course of his life. Incarcerated in 2007, having been implicated in an illegal dog-fighting scandal which drew the ire of the US public, Vick served two years in prison for his crimes. Perhaps the most exciting quarterback of this or any generation had hit the buffers in spectacular style - and the press had a new train wreck to promote as a cautionary tale to the heady excesses of modern-day sport.

Prior to that, Vick had been living the American Dream. Drafted "first overall" in 2001 by the Atlanta Falcons (the first African-American QB to have claimed such an honour), Vick soon became the heartbeat not only of the team but also the wider city. He had an arm that could pass for over 70 yards, even when flat-footed and standing still. However, it was his unbridled speed and agile scrambling that set him apart. Defenses foundered, touchdowns ensued, fans' chins dropped into their chests and Falcons' ticket prices soared.

But the cold truth was this was a one-man band - an exceptional player constrained by a team mired in mediocrity. And Vick knew it. He had become the highest paid player in the NFL (not bad for a kid who came from deep poverty in Virginia's ganglands) and believed his visage deserved its place atop the totem pole. No-one is above the law, though. And it's a long way down from the top of that pole.

Vick's was a fall from grace which saw him literally lose everything: his football, his fortune, his fame, his family and his freedom. He says he really hit rock bottom after his children stopped crying when they came to visit him. But they say it's darkest before the dawn. After his release and subsequent house-arrest, the bankrupt Vick finally got a gig back in the big time at the Philadelphia Eagles. Vick was provisionally reinstated after the start of the 2009 season, but was third-choice quarterback behind Pro-Bowler Donovan McNabb and his deputy Kevin Kolb. Redemption, on the field at least, would have to wait.

His chances of becoming a regular starter didn't look much better at the start of this season. Until fate intervened. First McNabb was surprisingly traded to the rival Redskins of Washington. Then, after a bizarre run of Eagles head-injuries also knocked Kolb out with concussion, Vick got his chance. And he seized it.

Since subbing admirably for the erratic Kolb, Vick has overcome the odds, a rib injury and numerous other opponents to take the Eagles ahead in NFC East - a contender for toughest division in the entire league. Kolb would have every right to feel a little bitter. But not a bit of it. He calls his team-mate a friend and natural leader with a work ethic to match. "It's changed him. No doubt," expanded Kolb on Vick's jail-term. Andy Reid, the veteran coach who staked his reputation on a redemption, agrees: "Don't forget, defenses still fear Mike but so do the American Kennel Club. But that Michael Vick has long been dead and buried."

Eagles fans, notoriously the hardest in the league to please, have also been moved. Sure, Vick humbled their former lynchpin, McNabb, in a rout of the Redskins (where he passed for a record 333 yards and four touchdowns, then rushed for a further 80 yards and another two TDs) but that isn't the only reason. His unwavering work in the community and grace in the face of constant criticism are also winning back some trust, even admiration. You get the sense Vick's humility is more than a PR campaign.

Back on the field, Vick enjoys another chance to showcase his new-found blend of ability and maturity against the Houston Texans on Thursday night. The Eagles are near-certainties to win the primetime game and bolster their prominent play-off position. They also hold decisive tie-breaking divisional records against their main rivals - a fact which makes them a very fair bet to prevail in the NFC East, for which they are 2.04 to back. Those who believe in Vick's professional salvation coming in possibly the most open year in history can also take the 12.0 on the 30-year-old leading his team to Superbowl glory.

Such a feat would doubtless complete the most compelling sports story in recent memory. And whether or not this is a man you can cheer for, Michael Vick knows he has plenty to give thanks for. No matter what the time of year.


By Romily Evans

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There are about 750 churches in Adelaide. Normally when the two Ashes protagonists arrive in the capital of south Australia it is the English who are need of divine intervention. This time, though, it would appear it is the Aussies who are on their knees, ready to serve a penance.

When I was there four years ago, I took a tour of some of these places of worship. The imposing and beautiful St Peter's cathedral, which so neatly frames the picture-postcard Adelaide Oval, is worth seeing. The church of scientology was also of note, although mainly because it offered a free personality test, something which one felt at the time that England coach Duncan Fletcher should take up.

Michael Vaughan, my betting.betfair colleague, reckons that it is the best city in Australia. He is right when it comes to charm, that's for sure. It is how an English city would have been 40 or 50 years ago with pinking trams, the home from home that is Victoria Square and a rather reserved atmosphere.

Certainly the travelling Barmy Army enjoy it the most. With Adelaide's population of 1.8m it is the smallest of the five Test venues and the hordes, faces painted white and red, like to think they have invaded. It will certainly seem that way when play begins tonight.

The grassy knoll beneath the Victorian scoreboard is where they will congregate, singing, slurping and sweating. Four years ago there was more sighing though, as England imploded horribly.

On my stroll around the ground in an atmosphere thick with panic - it really was that tangible even 20 or 30 minutes in - I made the mistake of standing next to one Barmy Army member, who had a Blackburn Rovers tattoo on his chest and a plastic cup of beer in hand. He began to sing, only to vomit instead. On my foot. I was wearing flip flops. Unperturbed he wiped his mouth, took a swing and carried on singing.

As far as wagering is concerned, a back to lay on the draw could improve the constitution. With both sides looking likely to struggle to take 20 wickets, it will not take much to force it below even money on the first morning.

Currently at 2.06, a wicketless 30 runs could indeed knock a whole point off, especially as there was a slight rise in the price after poor weather in the build up and more and more punters are becoming aware of the good batting track.

Other potential wagers are backing England for 425 runs or more in first innings at 2.10. Australia are slightly shorter at 2.00. Another price of note is the 2.04 that Andrew Strauss' side manage a first-innings lead.

I shall be producing my live in-running blog for day one of this Test so do make sure you get online to join in the fun. We had some successful trades at the Gabba, correctly spotting the trend for runs in both teams' second innings. I'll also be conducting a test as to which biscuits provide most assistance to staying awake. How can you miss that?


By Ed Hawkins

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The overwhelming feeling after the first Test in Brisbane is one of relief. Relief that the phoney war is over and the real action has begun. Relief that all of the averages, statistics and trends jotted down on pieces of paper that showed England were the better side have not been proven to be false scribblings.

Because up until that first ball is bowled, the cricket bettor has nothing else to cling to. On paper, he only suspects that one team is better than the other. And the great thing about the first Test was that in the very flesh there was proof.

We suspected England were the better team. They are the better team. They will retain the Ashes. Granted, you could be forgiven for scoffing at such a statement of clarity at such a juncture, particularly coming from a man who did not go to bed for four out of the five nights.

Sleep deprivation can do strange things but one of the side effects, it is understood, is not failing to recognise a poor cricket team when they are staring back at you, no matter how bleary-eyed you might be. Australia look a very poor side indeed.

The barometer for how bad they are is Alastair Cook. They made a batsman who has more holes in his technique that some of the fishing nets on the nearby river look like Bradman. Even decent Test bowlers expose Cook's leaden footwork, airy-fair bat lift and scant shot selection.

That he should so ruthlessly be able to put Australia to the sword is a damning indictment on the strength of their bowling attack. Ben Hilfenhaus is military medium at this level, Peter Siddle an honest trier who, somehow, has a Test hat-trick to his name and Mitchell Johnson a charlatan.

Johnson boasted at the start of the series that he was going to target Andrew Strauss. He would have been better advised to target the cut strip. For a player touted as potentially being the difference between the sides, he was disastrously bad for Australia.

They now have real selection problems. Johnson, wicketless and runless at the Gabba - he dropped a catch, too - is a doubt for the Adelaide Test, which starts late Thursday night. His replacement could be Doug Bollinger or Ryan Harris.

Neither will scare England. They may even be slightly relieved that Johnson is no more. He is the only Aussie capable of cranking up the pace and, hell, if he doesn't know where it's going the batsmen certainly won't.

The home selectors have also made petulant error in not dropping Xavier Doherty and going back to the respectable Nathan Hauritz. Oh and Marcus North's place is in doubt and Michael Clarke does not look fit.

England, meanwhile, know the XI they will pick for the next four Tests and several more beyond. Clarity counts for an awful lot. So by now it should be crystal clear for everyone: England to retain. Make it a big one.


By Ed Hawkins

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Horse racing has never produced the Spoty winner and there are many reasons to believe that hot favourite AP McCoy will be another losing name on the list.


The BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award surpasses even Christmas as the highlight of the Contrarian's December, because every year without fail, the British voting public show that their line of thought runs perpendicular to that of most bettors. This year, the punters can't get their hands off Tony McCoy, and there's such confidence in the jump jockey that he can be opposed at 2.12. Here's why you should take that price...


The market is rarely right

Tony McCoy has traded at odds as low as 1.75, which is quite staggering given the frequency with which the favourite is overlooked. Need a refresher? Jenson Button was odds-on at one stage last year, while eventual favourite Ryan Giggs was backed at 1000.0! In 2008, it looked like a straight fight between Lewis Hamilton and Rebecca Adlington, only for Chris Hoy to take the prize, while in 2007, Hamilton and Ricky Hatton suffered setbacks on the eve of the ceremony that enabled Joe Calzaghe to swoop in for a surprise victory.


The British public don't vote for jockeys

Figure skaters, show jumpers and Zara Phillips have won the award before but there has never been a jockey crowned Sports Personality of the Year. The closest anyone involved in horse racing has come is third, a feat achieved first by Frankie Dettori in 1996 and then McCoy in 2002. On that occasion, he finished behind David Beckham, who - Argentina match aside - had an unremarkable World Cup and ended that year warming the bench fairly frequently for Manchester United.


It would be a lifetime achievement award

Ryan Giggs' triumph last year attracted a fair amount of criticism because many believed his accomplishments in 2009 didn't warrant the recognition and that he was instead victorious due to his overall career contribution and the lack of outstanding candidates. Admittedly, McCoy's case isn't quite the same, as he did win the Grand National for the first time in April, however, it's not as if he has had a record-breaking year besides that, at least not compared to his last serious challenge in 2002. It is less likely that someone will win in such a fashion this time for three reasons - Phil Taylor is there to split the vote for those looking to give an unsung hero a chance to shine, there are more genuine contenders and those angry about the 2009 outcome will do more to prevent a repeat.


The Northern Irish vote lacks power

The power of patriotic voting has become apparent of late as for the first time ever, three years have passed without an English icon taking the trophy, yet while Scottish and Welsh sportsmen have enjoyed recent successes, there has been just one Northern Irish winner ever, athlete Mary Peters, who earned the public's affection in 1972 after delivering Olympic gold in the pentathlon. Even George Best failed to rack up enough votes to place higher than second. Besides McCoy's bronze in 2002, golfer Darren Clarke is the only Northern Irishman to seal a podium finish in the last 27 years.


There's a stellar shortlist

As referenced above, the standard of this year's shortlist is a cut above some of the recent ones. Among those who will feel they have strong claims on the prize are Europe's Ryder Cup hero Graeme McDowell at 6.8, the man who displaced Tiger Woods at the top of golf's world rankings, Lee Westwood, at 16.0, Winter Olympics gold medallist Amy Williams at 26.0 and young Commonwealth Games success story Tom Daley at 29.0. Whereas the Grand National can be won any year - and of course has never resulted in receipt of the Sports Personality of the Year Award before - all of those achievements are either once every two-to-four year opportunities or, in Westwood's case, unique.


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