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Both sides have stellar defences but that doesn't mean Twickenham won't witness a fascinating contest when Harlequins and Saracens do battle on Tuesday. Geoffrey Riddle selects the best festive period bets...


The big game between Harlequins and Saracens on Tuesday could be close to a sell-out and, with the teams dominating the Premiership, Twickenham is a fitting arena for the mouth-watering clash.

The bumper Christmas crowd may be disappointed, however, if it is expecting a feast of tries because both sides are the most adept in the section at keeping teams from the whitewash.
Sarries have continued in the same suffocating vein as last season, conceding the fewest points in the league.

Mark McCall's squad have also developed the considerable skill of adapting to each referee and have conceded the fewest penalty goals in the Premiership.

Quins have also proved themselves in this department, although their excellent defensive record is more down to their reliance on the mantra that attack is the best form of defence.

Harlequins have scored almost twice as many tries as their opponents, and last week in the Heineken Cup Toulouse could not live with their high-octane running game.

The French league leaders have a better defensive record than Sarries, which makes it all the more surprising that Saracens are considered two-point favourites.

Saracens struggled to contain Northampton in round nine, with the Saints' off-loading game overwhelming their visitors at Franklin's Gardens and although the Men in Black are the reigning champions, their crown is beginning to tarnish. Harlequins are still squeaky clean in the league, having beaten all the main protagonists and this really should be a scratch match.

Nicky Robinson's return with Wasps to Gloucester on Boxing Day will be eagerly anticipated by the Kingsholm regulars. The former Gloucester fly-half has had a torrid season with the boot and he'll have to kick much better than this season's 54 per cent accuracy rate if Wasps are to stay within their six-point start.

Wasps have scored 18 tries in the Premiership, and yet have only converted eight of those. They also have kicked the joint-fewest penalty goals in the league alongside Worcester. They have lacked a metronomic kicker, which has made it hard for them to close out tight games with back-up kicker Ryan Davis similarly poor in front of the posts.

Gloucester may have won only one of their last five Premiership encounters, but they are undervalued because of this. Bryan Redpath's side have picked up a losing bonus point in five of their six defeats in the league, going down by two points at Northampton and at Sale, and by the same margin at home to Sarries.
Admittedly, they have struggled at Kingsholm against the best sides, losing also to Leicester but Wasps can only dream of the heady days when they were considered the equal of the Tigers.

Dai Young's side may have beaten both Leicester and Sarries this season, but that was in the first two weeks of the league when the World Cup was taking place and Leicester gave them a good game despite having 11 players in New Zealand - a measure of how poor Wasps really are. Gloucester look good things, with the winning margin of between 1-12 points potentially value when the liquidity flows into Betfair.

Bath receive a 10-point start at Northampton and considering Sir Ian McGeechan's side were 16-point underdogs last weekend against Leinster, the European champions, that seems to underestimate the home side on Saturday.

If it wasn't for Jonathan Sexton's heroics in the Millennium Stadium in May, the Saints would be carrying that mantle of into the Christmas Eve fixture.

Although Northampton are not playing to a similar tune right now, their thrashing of Castres at home last week illustrates that they should have far too much firepower for Bath.


Recommended Bets (1-5pt staking plan)

1pt Back Harlequins to beat Saracens
2pts Back Gloucester to beat Wasps in the main handicap market
1pt Back Northampton to beat Bath in the main handicap market

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Eliot Pollak senses an anti-English agenda at play in recent SPOTY runnings and is banking on the Welsh masses to deliver an upset in the top-three betting.


They say history repeats itself every hundred years or so. 'They' of course are absolutely spot on. In 1913, Emily Wilding Davison hurled herself to her death underneath the King's horse at Epsom, in an attention-seeking stunt aimed at getting women the vote. Nearly 100 years later, who would be surprised if a modern-day Davison didn't suddenly appear, spread-eagled on the floor of MediaCity Salford, inviting Sue Barker's heels to do their worst.

Such has been the imbroglio surrounding the male-only names on the 2011 SPOTY shortlist, that the absence of women has dominated all prior publicity (one assumes this was exactly what the BBC had hoped for.) In truth, and ironically really given Davison's exploits, one could make a better case for a horse winning this year's prize rather than a woman. I'm sure Keri-Anne Payne is a tremendous swimmer, but isn't it time Denman's career exploits were rewarded, in this, his retirement year?

So who will win? The market suggests it is Mark Cavendish's to lose, priced in as short as 1.36. This may be due to lower-profile sports dominating the award over the last five years, with the winners roll-call reading Zara Phillips (Eventing), Joe Calzaghe (Boxing), Chris Hoy (Cycling), Ryan Giggs (you know what he does, right?), and last year's winner Tony McCoy (horse racing).

But another even more important factor is worth considering before having a punt - the power of the anti-English vote. Not since 2006 has an English person lifted this famous old prize, and even that year's winner, Zara Phillips, is effectively German. With this in mind, bettors' focus should shift to the Ulster pair of Rory McIlroy and Darren Clarke, or perhaps to the Welsh hurdler Dai Greene. (Cavendish for the record, is from the Isle of Man - not such a large voting block sadly.)

So why have minority sports and anyone-but-England voting dominated the award of late? Consider by contrast the first six winners of this century (Redgrave, Beckham, Radcliffe, Wilkinson, Holmes and Flintoff); all English, all playing high-profile sports.
Many have argued that it is the changing of the programme format where the answer lies.

In the olden days, Des and AN Other would review the sporting year, before handing over the prize, perhaps stopping for a cheeky five minute table-tennis match between Henman and Rusedski along the way. Nowadays, there is more sports footage at the Brits than in the SPOTY show. The Beeb don't have the rights to anything worth showing, and time is instead filled with an old girl winning the unsung hero award, because she runs a bridge club for urban youths.

Hence the voting demographic has dramatically changed - whereas once you would have your general sports hounds (who tend to like football, cricket etc), the audience these days is similar to the Holby City crowd. It is too cold to go out in Wales so let's put the telly on. In Scotland, it's too cold even to get up and get the remote, so leave it on BBC1.

This year a further complicating factor on the viewing figures is the day/time. The vote clashes with the Thursday evening before Xmas (where those in London will be attending work dos - no offence Scottish friends...) and coincides with Spurs-Chelsea, a match no serious football fan would miss simply to watch Jake Humphries.

All the more reason then to back a Welshman. It may be folly to oppose Cavendish, but our tip would be to back Dai Greene at 21.0 to finish in the top three.


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Could Manchester United really receive a Champions League reprieve? Hannah Duncan explains why such a move would be completely wrong.


Cards on the table, as an ardent Chelsea fan I found it rather amusing when Manchester United were knocked out of the Champions League group stages by FC Basel two weeks ago.

I watched the game, fully expecting a typical display where Sir Alex Ferguson's side get the result they need with relative ease, casting disappointment across England (except those lovely folk in Torquay, Buckinghamshire and other areas where United are popular). But on this occasion, there was no gallant performance or lucky 98th minute equaliser and the English champions crashed out at the group stages for just the third time in 17 years.

But news broke earlier this week which could see Manchester United snatch a winner way beyond even the seemingly interminable 'Fergie-time'. Swiss side FC Sion, who currently sit third in the Swiss Super League, were ejected from the tournament after fielding ineligible players in their qualifier against Celtic, which allowed the Bhoys into the group stages despite their 3-1 aggregate defeat. Since then, the Swiss FA have failed to punish FC Sion - 6.2 to be Swiss champions - beyond the reprimands handed out by Uefa. They have been given until January 13 to act, after which time FIFA are threatening to suspend Switzerland, their club sides and officials from international competition - including booting the innocent FC Basel out of the Champions League.

If this were to happen, Manchester United could be granted a reprieve and go on to face Bayern Munich in the last 16. Alternatively, 2010 runners-up Bayern, who are third favourites at 6.6 on Betfair to win the tournament, could be given a bye into the quarter-finals. Neither courses of action are right.

FC Sion were correctly punished by UEFA for their actions, but surely it remains up to the individual Football Association to decide if any further disciplinary action is to be taken. If UEFA or FIFA feel otherwise and wish to flex their egos - sorry, muscles - they must wait until next season to do so. Innocent bystanders Basel shouldn't be punished for the actions of other clubs or the inactions of the Swiss FA. Common sense should apply - but then this is FIFA we're talking about...

The same FIFA who awarded Qatar the 2022 World Cup, to the bemusement of the entire football world (but not necessarily the FIFA's bank managers); the same FIFA who still stick their heads in the sand when it comes to goal-line technology; and the same FIFA who are headed by a man who thinks racism can be solved by a handshake.

If nothing else, the removal of FC Basel would make a mockery of the Champions League and have knock-on effects in the already mock-able Europa League. If Manchester United were to be reinstated into European club football's biggest competition, UEFA would either have to award Ajax a bye into the last 16 of the Europa League or get into a muddle (lasting into next season knowing UEFA) working out who to bring back. United are 7.8 to lift the trophy, second favourites behind neighbours Manchester City 5.6, but it's anyone's guess who could be in what competition after FIFA have had their say.


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Mike Norman takes a look at some young golfers who have very exciting futures ahead of them on the European Tour, and who could provide backers with a big price winner in 2012.


As preparation for playing on the European Tour there's arguably no greater experience than plying your trade on the Challenge Tour, European golf's second tier.

In recent years players such as Rhys Davies, Richie Ramsay, Nicolas Colsaerts, David Horsey, Alexander Noren, and Joost Luiten have all graduated from the Challenge Tour and claimed wins - and in some cases multiple wins - on the main tour.

And not content with being a multiple winner, Italian Edoardo Molinari has made a Ryder Cup team having been a Challenge Tour player in 2009, whilst German Martin Kaymer - who finished fourth on the 2006 Challenge Tour money list - has since recorded 10 European Tour wins, won a Major championship, and briefly held the position of number one golfer in the world.

Of course, some youngsters - Rory McIlroy, Matteo Manassero and Tom Lewis to name but three - simply have or had too much ability to have held a full Challenge Tour card, but for those young golfers not so naturally gifted, playing on golf's second tier is a perfect way to enhance your game.

Below is my list of five players to watch out for on the European Tour in 2012 having all played on the Challenge Tour either last year or the year before.


Lorenzo Gagli

Gagli has fast become one of my favourite players but it's not from the heart that I make him top of my five to follow list. This 26-year-old Italian finished as far down as 17th on the Challenge Tour rankings in 2010 but that was enough to secure his playing privileges on the main tour in 2011, and he took the step up in grade completely in his stride.

Gagli recorded no fewer than six top-five finishes in 2011, including a second place finish at the Madrid Masters and a third place finish at the prestigious Scottish Open in July. But it was his astonishing performance at the Johnnie Walker Championship that will live long in my memory as the most frustrating golf bet I've ever had. After getting to the lead on seven under par early in round two, Gagli then hit an incredible 29 consecutive Greens in Regulation, and at least two-putted every single one of them.

The Italian's ball-striking is lovely to watch at times and he'll give himself stacks of birdie opportunities in 2012. He's a winner waiting to happen in my eyes, but as with every golfer, he'll need to putt well to get his nose in front.


Tommy Fleetwood

I'm really looking forward to seeing Fleetwood on the European Tour in 2012 as he strikes me as a fast-improving player with a great head on his shoulders. He won just one tournament on the Challenge Tour in 2011 but finished the year as the leading money earner thanks to an extremely consistent campaign. And he also showed that he doesn't look out of place on the main tour when - in late September - he recorded a top 10 finish at the Austrian Golf Open and a quite brilliant top five finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in a field that contained Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Graeme McDowell and Charl Schwartzel.


Andrea Pavan

Pavan has made giant strides in the game of golf since turning professional in 2010. Remarkably, he didn't even have a full Challenge Tour card last year and relied on sponsor's invitations to get into most tournaments, but he ended the year as runner-up on the money list behind Fleetwood thanks to two victories. I won't confess to knowing a great deal about this 21-year-old Italian but he won't be the first player to make an instant impact on the main tour, especially given his two performances on the European Tour last season, a 23rd place finish in the Italian Open and an excellent seventh place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Championship.


Thorbjorn Olesen

Like Gagli, Olesen is a 2010 Challenge Tour graduate; in fact he finished third on the money list that year, 14 places ahead of Gagli. And there were signs in 2011 that the 21-year-old Dane was much the better player of the two, recording excellent second place finishes at both the Italian Open and the Open de France. But as the year went on, with his playing privileges secured for 2012, Olesen understandably ran out of gas. He remains a very exciting prospect, and with the experience of last year now in the memory bank look for him to make a winning breakthrough next season.


Bernd Wiesberger

Whilst most Austrian golf fans are pinning their hopes on the highly-promising amateur Matthias Schwab for the future, it was hard not to be impressed by fellow Austrian Wiesberger last year. Having failed to keep his main tour card in 2009 the 26-year-old was back on the Challenge Tour in 2010 where he recorded two victories and finished the year fifth on the money list. He started 2011 very slowly, but from late July onwards he was arguably one of the most eye-catching youngsters on tour, recording four top-five finishes including a fourth at the high-quality Irish Open and a second at the Johnnie Walker Championship. This late season form augers very well for 2012.



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Jaymes Monte has seen enough from one of the game's so-called underachievers to believe that his fortunes may be about to turn...


Michael van Gerwen is often accused of being one of the game's perennial underachievers. It's a ludicrous accusation given that he is still only 22 years old, but one that gives you an idea of just how much talent the youngster has.

Having burst onto the scene as the youngest ever winner of a televised major when he won the Winmau World Masters at just 17, he has yet to go on to achieve the success that many had predicted. But he has time on his side, and if recent performances are anything to go by he is certainly heading in the right direction as a player.

He produced some mesmerising performances to top a difficult Grand Slam of Darts group a month ago and did nothing wrong in defeat to Gary Anderson at the Players Championship Finals last weekend. The Dutchman also revealed on Twitter earlier this week that he is over the debilitating foot injury that hindered him in Doncaster.

His opponent, Colin Osborne, has had another disappointing year in front of the cameras and has now failed to make it past the last 16 of a major event since January 2010.

Osborne's steady game sees him pick up enough prize money to stay in the top 32 in the Order of Merit, but he doesn't have that extra gear required to crank up the pressure against the best in the game. Van Gerwen does have the extra gear - although admittedly he doesn't always find it - and, so long as he doesn't start to beat himself up, he looks a good bet at odds of 2.0 for the win here.


Recommended Bet:

Back Van Gerwen to beat Osborne @ 2.0


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Mark Cavendish heads up the BBC Sports Personality of the Year odds at 1.4. But while victory for Cav would mean a second win in four years for cycling, the Contrarian has drawn up the profile of a typical winner and it looks nothing like the sprinting sensation...

Cavendish is from no man's land
Well, actually, the opposite is true given that he hails from the Isle of Man, but that's far from a good omen when it comes to the Sports Personality of the Year, because recent history suggests that you need a large amount of local support to take the trophy. His island, however, has a population of just 84,655. The last four winners - Joe Calzaghe, Sir Chris Hoy, Ryan Giggs and Tony McCoy - have all been propelled to victory by sizeable backing from either Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland, with Zara Phillips in 2006 the last person to triumph from outside one of those countries.

His best days are still ahead of him...
If Cavendish earns the prize aged 26, he will be the youngest recipient since a 24-year-old Jonny Wilkinson was recognised in 2003. The circumstances then were rather unique, with the rugby union star scoring the drop goal that handed England the World Cup, and briefly made the sport the most talked about in the country. The last four winners have all been in their 30s, and for Calzaghe, Giggs and McCoy, it could be viewed almost as a lifetime achievement honour for a respected sportsman who has always excelled, without previously experiencing the individual glory that seemed deserved.

...whereas it's now or never for Clarke
Of this year's candidates, 7.4 second favourite Darren Clarke best fits the billing above. He is hugely popular among golf fans and clearly has a big enough fanbase to make an impact having finished second in 2006. Clarke is more worthy of top spot on this occasion after his spectacular Open success and meets all the criteria generally required to be a winner these days: he's Northern Irish, at 43 it could be his last shot at the trophy and his standing in the market sees him rated a serious contender without being so fancied that potential voters feel there's no need for them to vote, as they might with a red hot favourite.

A cyclist is unlikely to win
Though there is no doubt that the popularity and quality of British cycling is on the rise, there have still only ever been two cyclists ever crowned Sports Personality of the Year (Tom Simpson in '65 and Chris Hoy in 2008). Indeed, Hoy was the only cyclist to have made the top three since Beryl Burton in 1967, and he could hardly be ignored after claiming three Olympic gold medals. Cavendish was shortlisted in 2010 after an impressive campaign but failed to finish in the podium positions despite it being far from the strongest line-up ever, hinting that his best chance of lifting the BBC's silverware will be after a star turn at the Olympics.

It's not a market for favourites
Backing the favourite has rarely proven a profitable strategy in this market, with Tony McCoy's 2010 success the exception rather than the norm. The legendary jumps jockey wasn't as clear a frontrunner as Cavendish is this time and several other high-profile icons who have been overlooked in the past were. Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button and Rebecca Adlington have all been left disappointed after being widely tipped in recent years and there have been several massive shocks, like Calzaghe elbowing his way into what was thought a two-way fight between Hamilton and Ricky Hatton in 2007, and Hoy doing the same to Hamilton and Adlington 12 months later. Giggs meanwhile was at one staged backed at 1000.0 when he prevailed in 2009, indicating that you mustn't be scared off by the size of the odds.


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The brightest stars in the Premier League were shining this weekend as the leading three found a way to win tricky fixtures, says Ralph Ellis.


Okay, so we all know it's a squad game these days, there's no 'I' in team, and all that sort of stuff. But one thing that doesn't change is that in every football side there is one key player.

It's true of your Sunday pub team. Be honest. There's one bloke you hope will be there every week, come rain, shine, or mother-in-law's Christmas get together. And whatever the manager might try to claim it's true of every club in the Premier League too.

If you can identify that player, then checking the team news to discover he's missing can give your betting a real edge. For instance Darren Bent was out injured from Aston Villa's dismal 2-0 defeat by Liverpool yesterday, but they were already doomed to defeat by Liverpool because it is Gabby Agbonlahor, who was suspended, who has become the real key player for Alex McLeish. His electric pace is the only thing that gives an outlet to a club that sold the creativity of Ashley Young and Stewart Downing. He'll return against Arsenal on Wednesday and is the one reason why a price of 5.1 for a home win looks a great bit of value.

Wolves had been improving at home before Saturday's meeting with Stoke, but their key player has become Jamie O'Hara. He made all the difference in keeping them up after arriving on loan from Spurs last season, and is just as vital now. Used in a deeper midfield role earlier in the campaign he wasn't so effective, but two home wins was the result once he returned to play just behind Kevin Doyle. I'm patting myself on the back for laying favourites Wolves before Saturday's 2-1 defeat by Stoke once I learned O'Hara had a calf strain. If he's back for tomorrow night's game with Norwich then Wolves at 2.28 are worth backing again!

Sometimes the player might be on the field, but he's still missing! That's been the story of Bolton's season where it looks as if Kevin Davies, at nearly 35, has lost a yard of pace in his legs. For the last few years the side has been based around his power, aggression, and ability to run behind defenders. He hardly got a kick in the 2-0 defeat at Fulham, and Bolton are now 1.61 to go down. If they don't win at Blackburn tomorrow night - and they are 3.85 to do so - they will be bottom on Christmas Day, and we all know what happens next!

In fact since in 2005 when West Brom became the only club to do the Great Escape, the club who wake up on Christmas morning occupying 20th place have still been there at the end of the season - so odds of 4.0 for the Trotters to finish rock bottom are worth taking.

Blackburn are 3.6 to finish in 20th and remain a club in turmoil after losing at home to West Brom. Their owners probably thought they were doing a good deal when they sold teenager Phil Jones to Manchester United in the summer for £16million - but his quality at the back has been sorely missed all season. In contrast, Wigan, still favourites to go down at 1.55, are slowly developing 21-year-old Victor Moses who was excellent again on Saturday night and helped stun Chelsea when Jordi Gomez scored a late equaliser for a 1-1 draw.

At the other end of the table it becomes more clear every week why Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy was so determined not to sell Luka Modric in the summer. He was the star of the show again in a 1-0 win at home to Sunderland yesterday. Levy will no doubt find his resolve to keep the talented Croatian midfielder tested again in January, but meanwhile Spurs are now as short as 1.57 to regain their place in the top four, and 2.42 to finish third or better.

At Manchester City everybody thought the key man was Carlos Tevez. It turns out that all along it was David Silva who was the creative force for Roberto Mancini, and the little Spaniard got the only goal yesterday that beat Arsenal at The Etihad Stadium. He's not missed a match yet and keeping him fit will be key to City's ability to stay top of the table.

Sir Alex Ferguson, meanwhile, has dropped his experiment of playing Wayne Rooney in midfield after realising the side needed their best player in the position where he can do most damage. After a bleak period without scoring he got the first in a 2-0 win at QPR yesterday, making it three in two games.

United's title odds have been shaved to 3.6, but a kind Christmas programme could help them chip away at City's lead - and Rooney, currently 5.0 for the golden boot, help himself to more goals.


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The market gives Harry Judd a 73.53% chance of claiming Strictly Come Dancing's Glitter Ball Trophy, but he was outclassed by both his of final opponents, Chelsee Healey and Jason Donovan last week. And more disappointment awaits, says the Betfair Contrarian

There's little separating the finalists
In a Strictly first, the name at the top of the leaderboard has changed in each of the nine weeks leading up to the final. Harry has posted the highest score just twice in total - compared to four times apiece for Chelsee and Jason - and he is the only one of the trio yet to get a ten from stingiest judge Craig Revel Horwood. Therefore, the McFly drummer doesn't have a big enough advantage on the dance floor to justify odds of 1.36, so they must reflect an assumption that he is more popular. However, like Harry, Chelsee hasn't been in the bottom two throughout, while Jason only came close to exiting once.

Harry's partner may be penalised
Reality TV fans love a conspiracy theory and one surrounding last year's series was that Aliona Vilani and celebrity partner Matt Baker were marked down due to her poor relationship with the judges. Fuel was added to that fire earlier in this series when head judge Len Goodman called her out on comments made on supplementary show It Takes Two, implying that she didn't take much notice of their feedback. Things haven't been as frosty since that showdown, but awkwardness lingers when they interact and Aliona's choreography never attracts the praise afforded to the other professionals in the final.
The judges' scores don't affect the vote this week, though they can still swing things by duping viewers into believing that a couple don't deserve to win, as arguably happened when Aliona and Matt scored lowest last year.
In five of the first eight series, the voters followed the judges' lead when separating the final two.

Chelsee has the BBC Factor
Another intriguing Strictly trend is that the last three editions were won by celebrities best known for featuring on other BBC shows: Tom Chambers (Holby City), Chris Hollins (BBC Breakfast) and Kara Tointon (Eastenders). Of 2011's remaining stars, Chelsee 4.0 is the one who benefits from that trend courtesy of her role as Janeece Bryant in Waterloo Road, a part she has played since 2006. In contrast, Jason's main audience these days is provided by his Heart radio show and Harry is reliant on McFly fans, who admittedly did the business for Dougie Poynter on I'm a Celebrity. That tendency for viewers to support those most familiar to them still exists and helps explain why Alex Jones (One Show) and Robbie Savage (MOTD2) were protected by the public at times when outperformed by former BBC soap stars Anita Dobson and Holly Valance, who don't get much TV exposure these days.

And there is much to like about Chelsee
Chelsee's first appearance on Strictly prompted abuse on Twitter, her choice of outfit and "single and ready to mingle" comment not creating the best first impression. However, in what is a reality TV rarity, her bubbly nature, slight glimpses of insecurity and, most importantly, hugely impressive dance floor displays appear to have forced her critics into a complete 180. The producers have also aided her cause with a somewhat laboured attempt to portray a ladette-to-lady transformation, which though perhaps inaccurate provides an element of "journey" that already-good Jason sorely lacks. She is the only finalist to have scored 35 or more in her last seven performances, delivering consistently in both ballroom and Latin routines, and like Kara last year has the benefit of a partner new to the series in Pasha Kovalev. He's popular, being voted favourite professional on Digital Spy's Strictly Forum, and deservedly so. After all, he dressed as Shrek on Movie Night - what's not to love?

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Essex Vase

T1 Roses Rockin
Early-paced performer but will need a flyer even from trap one with plenty of speed on his immediate outside. Lightly-raced over six bends and improving but has won only one race from five over CD and looks up against it.

T2 Judicial Academy
Dual Irish Leger finalist who won his first five races in the UK prior to this, but has failed to score in the event so far. Should appreciate the switch back to trap two, but while one to keep an eye on probably has a bit to find.

T3 Aero Majestic
Leger winner who left his first round form behind with an excellent run from trap one in the semis. Very dangerous if getting to the front early, but will need to clear early paced rivals on his inside. Has won eight of his 17 races over six bends.

T4 Emperor Leon
Strong running sort who has run his last eight races over this trip (winning twice). Appears badly drawn but is two from two in trap four over the CD and has improved since returning to Romford. Fifth in the Champion Stakes here in September.

T5 Westmead Maldini
Unbeaten in the event to take his record over the 575m trip here to five wins and two seconds from seven runs. Equally capable whether from the front or off the pace (flew home to get beaten a short-head in the Champion Stakes). Wider draw than ideal but won from trap four in the semis. Excellent competition dog.

T6 Hugo You Go
Another who made the Champion Stakes final and is also unbeaten here. Has won six from 12 over CD and looks well drawn outside five railers (also won from trap 6 in the semis). May have been under-estimated and could tempt value players.

Verdict
An excellent final with Leger winner Aero Majestic putting himself firmly in the picture after an emphatic victory in his semi-final and he would prove very hard to catch if getting away in similar style. However, he has plenty of speed on his inside and despite a wider than ideal draw, Westmead Maldini, a strong sort as he proved when getting touched off in the Champion Stakes, has an unenviable record here and looks the percentage call in a hard to call final.


19:40 Maiden Stayers
An unusual choice for a Sky race and one to tread carefully with. Trevi You Go has solid form over four bends here and makes his six bend debut, while Coolavanny Jane has been in good form at Sittingbourne but is untried here. Tentatively I take Droopys Trump, who has run well over CD to beat them both.

20:00 Standard
A race full of early paced types all of whom could crack out and make all on their day, but Johnny Dash could hardly have won any easier on Friday and with Diamond Cnoc not breaking lately could secure first run on the inside. Millroad Scolari is not the fastest, but looks the strongest in the field.

20:15 Maiden Marathon
Another maiden! But Skywalkershearer did us a favour at Wimbledon and has solid from over six bends here and is just preferred to Bubbly Swallow, who steps up after a good win over 575m here last weekend and rates the danger.

20:35 Stayers
If I'm right in the last race, it will be a good pointer to Droopys Minnie, who chased home 'Shearer' last time and made a good impression when winning a maiden here last month. She gets the nod over Risky Rosaleen, who appears best over a short six bend trip. Vet Mays Rocknroller has a good record here.

20:50 Hurdles
Baltylum Houdini loves it round here, especially when clad in the stripes, and can reverse Wimbledon form with Billis Renegade, one of three in this field he beat here on the last Sky night in September.

21:25 Stayers
All these can boast strong CD credentials over this 575m trip but unexposed Patterdale Cejay would take some stopping if getting anywhere near his impressive display in the first round of the Essex Vase. Diesel Malc seems best over a short six bend trip but will need to clear Clonlost Snoopy.

Selections
Baltylum Houdini 20:50
Johnny Dash 20:00
Droopys Minnie 20:35
Westmead Maldini 21:45

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When a man is versed in pounding the hard road, a little detour now and then doesn't hurt. Carl Froch has taken the path less travelled on his successful journey through the Super 6 series. So, having waited a little longer than originally planned to finally face Andre Ward in this weekend's decider, be sure that Froch is ready.

The Nottingham tough guy has endured and prospered through an arduous competition schedule over the last two-and-a-half years, the sort not seen since the old days. Legends like Sugar Ray Robinson used to campaign as Froch has done recently, so it reflects well on the Englishman that he has excelled at a time when such feats are rarely expected or delivered.

Since edging subsequent world champion Jean Pascal in a fight of the year to win his coveted WBC title in 2008, Froch (3.85 to beat Ward) has been to America stopping Bernard Hopkins conqueror Jermain Taylor, back to Blighty beating slippery Andre Dirrell before blazing through the volcanic ash cloud to come up just short in a thriller against the classy Mikkel Kessler. That remains the only defeat on Froch's record and a debated one at that, but 'The Cobra' has bounced right back mastering top-level operators Arthur Abraham and Glen Johnson in the 12 months since.

In an era where money can affect the enthusiasm not to mention the preparations of young fighters, Froch remains a straightforward pleasure for punters; you just know that he will turn out in the best possible shape.

Froch keeps a diary logging every press-up, hill sprint and round sparred as he and long time trainer Rob McCracken push the boundaries of professionalism among athletes. Farl Froch won't be found wanting in that regard, it is simply a question of whether he is good enough to beat Ward or if he can impose his will upon the fight.

Andre Ward is a worthy favourite given his style and ability but in no way is he the right price at (1.39); those odds are an insult to Froch as well an over-reaction to where Ward is at right now.

Unbeaten in 24 fights and a former Olympic Gold medallist, there is no doubt that Ward is talented but he is not about to explode as the new superstar of the sport anytime soon. Indeed, wins over common foes Mikkel Kessler and Arthur Abraham are conspicuous stand outs on Ward's record. My feeling is that win over Kessler is misleading with the Dane rusty off a break and more 'psyched' when he fought Froch but it is fair to say that Ward has the style to beat the Englishman.

The American has the definite edge in speed and, as is so often the case, that could be the deciding factor in this fight. Ward may not be the slickster you expect him to be, but he has quick hands off a good jab and ought to beat Froch to the punch. The Californian can lean in with his head, so he is potentially vulnerable to the type of uppercut which Froch throws well (the punch which sorted out Brian McGhee in 2006) and Ward will have to overcome a four-inch reach deficit but I think his speed and smarts will allow him to do so. Dirrell probably should have beaten Froch in 2009 but he wasn't man enough to take his chance; Ward though has the mental toughness as well as the discipline to affect the same sort of game plan to win.

Froch is the puncher of the two although since dining at the top table he has gone the distance in five of his last six fights and he stopped Taylor in the other with barely seconds remaining.

Ward meanwhile is light in that department compared to Froch and I would be astonished if he could halt the granite-chinned Englishman. Unless Froch can land a big one or heads clash and cuts become an issue this fight looks nailed on to go the distance (as evidenced by odds of 1.26 on this going the full 12 rounds), in fact I'd rather back that than take the short price about Ward.

I've always said that Froch will lose to a boxer who has speed and that is what he faces this weekend. The most likely outcome is that Ward stays cool, picks off Froch in bursts and runs out a clear winner by DEC/TD (1.57) but there just doesn't look much mileage in that price.

I think Ward will probably win but Froch has the reach and the ability to turn this into an uncomfortable night for the American. Next to that, Froch is simply the wrong price. This isn't Hatton taking on Mayweather, not by a million miles and Floyd was around 1.6 for that one, so Froch has to be backed at the prevailing odds.

Robert Frost would nod approvingly at the road Froch has taken to this point; let's hope it makes all the difference this weekend.

Recommended Bet
Back Carl Froch to win 1pt @ 3.85 (0-10pts system)

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