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The brightest stars in the Premier League were shining this weekend as the leading three found a way to win tricky fixtures, says Ralph Ellis.


Okay, so we all know it's a squad game these days, there's no 'I' in team, and all that sort of stuff. But one thing that doesn't change is that in every football side there is one key player.

It's true of your Sunday pub team. Be honest. There's one bloke you hope will be there every week, come rain, shine, or mother-in-law's Christmas get together. And whatever the manager might try to claim it's true of every club in the Premier League too.

If you can identify that player, then checking the team news to discover he's missing can give your betting a real edge. For instance Darren Bent was out injured from Aston Villa's dismal 2-0 defeat by Liverpool yesterday, but they were already doomed to defeat by Liverpool because it is Gabby Agbonlahor, who was suspended, who has become the real key player for Alex McLeish. His electric pace is the only thing that gives an outlet to a club that sold the creativity of Ashley Young and Stewart Downing. He'll return against Arsenal on Wednesday and is the one reason why a price of 5.1 for a home win looks a great bit of value.

Wolves had been improving at home before Saturday's meeting with Stoke, but their key player has become Jamie O'Hara. He made all the difference in keeping them up after arriving on loan from Spurs last season, and is just as vital now. Used in a deeper midfield role earlier in the campaign he wasn't so effective, but two home wins was the result once he returned to play just behind Kevin Doyle. I'm patting myself on the back for laying favourites Wolves before Saturday's 2-1 defeat by Stoke once I learned O'Hara had a calf strain. If he's back for tomorrow night's game with Norwich then Wolves at 2.28 are worth backing again!

Sometimes the player might be on the field, but he's still missing! That's been the story of Bolton's season where it looks as if Kevin Davies, at nearly 35, has lost a yard of pace in his legs. For the last few years the side has been based around his power, aggression, and ability to run behind defenders. He hardly got a kick in the 2-0 defeat at Fulham, and Bolton are now 1.61 to go down. If they don't win at Blackburn tomorrow night - and they are 3.85 to do so - they will be bottom on Christmas Day, and we all know what happens next!

In fact since in 2005 when West Brom became the only club to do the Great Escape, the club who wake up on Christmas morning occupying 20th place have still been there at the end of the season - so odds of 4.0 for the Trotters to finish rock bottom are worth taking.

Blackburn are 3.6 to finish in 20th and remain a club in turmoil after losing at home to West Brom. Their owners probably thought they were doing a good deal when they sold teenager Phil Jones to Manchester United in the summer for £16million - but his quality at the back has been sorely missed all season. In contrast, Wigan, still favourites to go down at 1.55, are slowly developing 21-year-old Victor Moses who was excellent again on Saturday night and helped stun Chelsea when Jordi Gomez scored a late equaliser for a 1-1 draw.

At the other end of the table it becomes more clear every week why Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy was so determined not to sell Luka Modric in the summer. He was the star of the show again in a 1-0 win at home to Sunderland yesterday. Levy will no doubt find his resolve to keep the talented Croatian midfielder tested again in January, but meanwhile Spurs are now as short as 1.57 to regain their place in the top four, and 2.42 to finish third or better.

At Manchester City everybody thought the key man was Carlos Tevez. It turns out that all along it was David Silva who was the creative force for Roberto Mancini, and the little Spaniard got the only goal yesterday that beat Arsenal at The Etihad Stadium. He's not missed a match yet and keeping him fit will be key to City's ability to stay top of the table.

Sir Alex Ferguson, meanwhile, has dropped his experiment of playing Wayne Rooney in midfield after realising the side needed their best player in the position where he can do most damage. After a bleak period without scoring he got the first in a 2-0 win at QPR yesterday, making it three in two games.

United's title odds have been shaved to 3.6, but a kind Christmas programme could help them chip away at City's lead - and Rooney, currently 5.0 for the golden boot, help himself to more goals.


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