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Manchester United's new boy should lead the line for the 19-time league champions and the stats say that he is a strong bet to finish up with the golden boot. Andrew Atherley explains all

Cream rises to the top in the Premier League scoring charts, just as it does in the overall table. In fact, there is an inextricable link between the two.

For the statistical evidence, compiled for the past 10 seasons, let's consider first the likelihood of the top goalscorer coming from one of the leading clubs. There have been 11 winners in the past decade (two players tied for first in 2010-11) and every one played for a top-four finisher (five for the champions, two for the runners-up, three for the third-placed team and one for the fourth-placed). In fact, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink in 2000-01 is the last winner who did not play for a top-four side (Chelsea were sixth that season).

Hasselbaink did, however, fulfil the other key criterion - previous form in the race to be top goalscorer. He had won two seasons earlier when with fourth-placed Leeds United and been fourth the season before that when Leeds finished fifth.

Looking at the past decade, nine of the 11 top scorers had been in the top four in a previous season (four of them were previous winners). The two exceptions had finished fifth and 10th in a previous campaign.

The betting says Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal are likely to be the top four and that narrows the leading fancies down to five: Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez of Manchester City, United's new boy Robin Van Persie and old lag Wayne Rooney, and Fernando Torres of Chelsea. Only those five fit the ideal profile.

The concern with the big pairings at City and United is that the goals may end up being shared around - only once in the past 10 seasons have two players from the same club broken the 20-goal barrier (Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard in Chelsea's record-breaking high-scoring season of 2009-10). Otherwise the ceiling level for the second-highest scorer from a club has been 14 goals.

It helps to be the main man and that is the status of Torres following Drogba's departure, but backers still have to take a lot on trust with him and the risk factor is not built in to the odds.

The arrival of Van Persie at United seems more likely to hamper Rooney than RVP, as it did when Cristiano Ronaldo was United's top scorer. Rooney has stepped up to be the main man when required, with two 20-plus-goals tallies in the past three seasons, but it is more likely he will be in the support role that saw him help Ronaldo and Dimitar Berbatov to be top scorer. With Van Persie's fitness problems apparently behind him, he looks the best bet at 9.0.

A more open market is Top Goalscorer - Top 4, where playing for a high-placed club is not as essential. Even so, around three-quarters of top-four goalscorers in the past 10 seasons were with a top-four club or had finished in the top four scorers before.

Fourteen goals is often enough to figure in this category, which brings in goal-scoring midfielders. Oscar and Eden Hazard at Chelsea might make a mark, as other top-class newcomers have done in the past. A left-field option is Rickie Lambert, who could emulate Darren Bent and Andy Johnson by bringing his scoring up a division for a lower-ranked club.

With four top-six finishes in seven seasons, including third place twice, Bent at 6.0 looks a solid option now he is fit and has, in Paul Lambert, a manager more committed to attack.


Recommended Bets

Robin Robin van Persie to be top scorer at 9.0
Darren Bent to be in top four scorers at 6.0


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