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All the evidence points to England's Euro 2012 rematch against the Azzurri being a low-scoring affair...


England v Italy, Wednesday 20:00, ITV1, Match odds: England 2.68, Italy 3.18, The Draw 3.3

With the Premier League season imminent, this mistimed friendly has unsurprisingly attracted several pull-outs, with Joe Hart, Daniel Sturridge and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain among the withdrawals.

Therefore, Roy Hodgson makes the trip to Berne to face the Euro 2012 runners-up with just two goalkeepers, with the uncapped John Ruddy and Jack Butland expected to make their international debuts in either half. Hodgson is also left with only two recognised strikers in Andy Carroll and Jermain Defoe, so Ashley Young might be called upon as a second striker as at the start of Euro 2012.

Italy surprised everyone in Poland and Ukraine but like England arrive with a fairly experimental squad in Switzerland, with only five of those who played a part against the Three Lions in June expected to start here. Manchester City target Daniele De Rossi and new Roma teammate Federico Balzaretti played notable roles that day and look set to start alongside Fiorentina's former Liverpool midfielder Alberto Aquilani.

The Italians generally raise their standards when playing tournament football but the Azzurri's friendly form is pretty poor lately, losing all three proceeding the Euros to nil - against USA, Uruguay and Russia respectively. It will probably be harder than ever for those involved in the disappointment of the Euro 2012 final defeat to get themselves up for this one.

Given this undesirable friendly record, England are understandably priced as slight favourites, but having failed to beat Italy in their last four encounters, backing the draw at 3.3 seems preferable.


Over/Under 2.5 goals

With the Roy Hodgson era still in its infancy, it's difficult to gauge how the former West Brom boss will approach things. However, in his six games in charge to date England have only scored more than one goal once, against Sweden in the Euros. Frank Lampard aside, England's eight midfield options have only produced as many international goals over a combined 90 caps.

This fixture is traditionally fruitless when it comes to goalmouth action with only one of the last six encounters producing over 2.5, with two scoreless draws thrown in to the mix. Italy themselves have only managed to find the net more than once twice in their last seven so 1.62 is certainly reasonable.


Half Time Score

There have been three goalless draws from the last eight meetings between the teams and in the last four encounters the score at half-time has also been 0-0, the most recent of these coming this summer in Kiev, so the likelihood of a first-half stalemate priced at 2.54 has a real attraction.

England's penultimate match of the Euros against Ukraine also entered the break goalless.

Recommended Bets:
Back the draw @ 3.3
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.62
Back the 0-0 half-time draw @ 2.54


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