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Sunderland fan Jonathan Wilson hopes that Martin O'Neill can keep his team clear of danger this season. Meanwhile, how will the likes of West Ham, Reading and Southampton fare? And can Wigan cheat the drop once again?

How much do stats matter in football? In the first four months of Martin O'Neill's reign at Sunderland most fans were pretty happy. He had taken over at the beginning of December with Sunderland 17th in the league, having taken just 11 points from their first 14 games of the season, 13 of them under Steve Bruce. O'Neill's first 16 matches brought 29 points and lifted them to eighth and the quarter-final of the FA Cup. That was the high point; O'Neill's well-known ability to get moderate sides over-performing seemed to be working again.

But a glance at the Opta stats suggested the optimism was misplaced. They showed that, at that point, Sunderland had had fewer shots under O'Neill -the second worst in the league, despite averaging 1.44 goals per game - than they did under Bruce; that they had less possession (42 percent as opposed to 47 percent) and made fewer passes of which they completed fewer; they put in fewer crosses; and they won a lower percentage of their tackles, although they did make slightly more challenges.

The only two basic metrics in which Sunderland noticeably improved were in the number of fouls committed and in the productivity of their shooting: 19 percent of their shots yielding a goal as opposed to 11 percent before, an improvement from 13th best in the league to second. That might, of course, have meant that they were creating better opportunities before taking a shot, but an awful lot of goals in those first heady days under O'Neill came from long range.

Was that confidence or was it luck? Either way, it didn't seem sustainable and, sure enough, there was a regression to the mean: of the final eight games of the season, Sunderland drew five and lost three. Was that because the sense was that, with relegation avoided and the FA Cup quarter-final lost, the season was over? Or was that an accurate reflection of how good they were?

I speak as a Sunderland fan and I know I am inclined to pessimism, but the summer's transfer activity hasn't exactly been encouraging. So far the only player to arrive is the former Aston Villa centre-back Carlos Cuellar, taking the place vacated by Michael Turner, while there is a clear need for a centre-forward and a left-back and, ideally, a more creative central midfielder, particularly if Stephane Sessegnon is as unsettled as he appears. I don't really think Sunderland will go down, but equally 13.0 seems very long.

The encouraging thing from Sunderland's point of view is that there are an awful lot of sides who could get drawn into trouble. Norwich, Swansea and QPR have shown that it is possible for all of the promoted teams to avoid relegation but with neither Reading 2.44 nor Southampton 2.4 having the sort of backing to make the investments QPR did last January, both of them need a good start.

West Ham 3.3 have eight new additions, Alou Diarra perhaps the most impressive and, with Sam Allardyce's nous, should be alright, but if things start to go wrong, the dissatisfaction at Allardyce's style of play could make Upton Park a poisonous place.

Swansea 3.02, having lost a manager in Brendan Rodgers and key midfielders in Gylfi Sigurdsson and Joe Allen, may struggle; their new manager Michael Laudrup is likable and eloquent but his success at Getafe wasn't matched in subsequent spells at Spartak Moscow and Real Mallorca. Norwich 2.68, similarly, face a test of how much of their success was down to Paul Lambert, now at Aston Villa 7.6.

Wigan, you feel, can't keep cheating the drop indefinitely; even Rasputin died eventually, but given their knack of surviving 2.7 doesn't look generous. And how will West Brom 5.0 react to the departure of Roy Hodgson? Steve Clarke has a good reputation as a number two, but can he upgrade to the main role? And have Stoke 7.0 at last been worked out?


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