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Paul Krishnamurty advises four outright winner wagers ahead of today's second round at the US PGA Championship at Kiawah Island...


On the first day's evidence, Pete Dye has done it again. The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island offered nothing to justify the tag of 'toughest in America', but does seem certain to provide a dramatic, exciting PGA Championship.

All of the dynamics required for optimum In-Play trading conditions are in place - a tightly bunched leaderboard with a market disproportionately dominated by a few big names, changeable weather and a course that offers birdie and bogey potential on every hole, including a finishing stretch made for drama.

There are clear similarities with Dye's last PGA venue, Whistling Straits, which played host in 2004 and 2010. Both went to play-offs, involved bunched, constantly changing leaderboards and naturally, dramatic betting fluctuations. The lesson from both was to 'back high, lay low' on players coming from off the pace. 2010 champion Martin Kaymer came from five back on day one, while play-off loser Bubba Watson started the final day six off the pace.

At least the 87 players currently within seven of leader Carl Pettersson can still win this, but for day two, the best strategy is to focus on players with a decent chance of getting to -7, and therefore a potential halfway lead. That means the 31 players within four of the lead, amongst whom just five - Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley and Graeme McDowell - take out nearly 50% of the entire book. All are respected, but none are infallable by any means, or certain to appreciate today's stiffer breeze.

As nobody is likely to run away with this event, there's little risk in ignoring these big guns for now, whilst retaining the option to get on later on if necessary.

Much of course depends on the weather. If it doesn't rain, the warm Atlantic breeze will dry the greens out and Kiawah Island will begin to truly show it's teeth. Alternatively if, as seems likely, there are thunderstorms at some point, receptive greens will make scoring easier.

According to Windfinder's forecast, early starters will enjoy around 5mph lighter winds, although that advantage is less significant than the first day.

With so many variables, it would be folly to assume a strong bias towards either early or late starters, so my plan is to back two of each. In the morning, Aaron Baddeley and Padraig Harrington are recommended at 40.0 and 60.0 respectively. Both are great wind players and scramblers - arguably the two key ingredients for success here. The firmer and faster it gets, the better for this pair.

Just as Harrington was a pre-tournament tip, Ian Poulter is faring best of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks and is worth pressing up on. A two-under par 70 was a good, solid start - much more so than when staying on for top-tens in the Masters and Open.

On the same score, Thomas Bjorn is also way overpriced at 180.0. Not only does Bjorn have a strong links and wind pedigree from the Open Championship, but he's finished top-three in the PGA twice before.

Of the five players currently within a shot of the lead, only McIlroy started the tournament at less than 100.0. If any of our candidates, all between -2 and -4, take advantage of the early birdie opportunities, they could be soon challenging for the lead.

The trading advice is to stake ten units in total, then place a lay order on each player at 8.0 for 15 units. If we get just one lay order matched, we're guaranteed at least five units profit, plus a further forty-plus if the player goes on to win.


Recommended bets

4u Aaron Baddeley @ 40.0
3u Padraig Harrington @ 60.0
2u Ian Poulter @ 80.0
1u Thomas Bjorn @ 180.0

Place order to lay each player 15u @ 8.0


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