Betting.Betfair

Back-to-lay
Back Dustin Johnson 6u @ 27.0
Place order to lay 25u @ 4.0
It is safe to say that champagne will be flowing here at betting.betfair should Dustin Johnson win his first major this weekend. Steve Rawlings makes a very strong case for this South Carolina resident gaining revenge for an unlucky defeat at Whistling Straits two years ago. I wholeheartedly agree. My detailed verdict on Johnson and other 29 leading candidates can be found here, but in short, I would rate Dustin the rightful favourite.

My trading advice is to take the 27.0 before it disappears, staking six units, then place a lay order for 25 units at 4.0. If he hits that target, we'll be guaranteed 19 units profit and retain a 'free bet' for a further 62 units should he win.

Back Ernie Els 3u @ 70.0
Back Padraig Harrington 4u @ 50.0
Place order to lay both players 25u @ 6.0
There's even greater agreement amongst the Betfair team that Ernie Els is completely overpriced. It's as if last month's second Open title didn't happen and as Mike Norman explains, the Big Easy will once again have his ideal Open-style conditions.

So, by definition, will another links master and twice Open champion, Padraig Harrington, who looks primed for further majors success after making the top-ten at both the Masters and US Open. If this actually was The Open, with wind forecast to blow around 15mph throughout, both Els and Harrington would be trading at less than half these odds.

Here, the trading plan is to stake seven units in total, then place lay orders on both place for 25 units at 6.0. In this case, either man hitting the first lay target would guarantee 18 units profit, with potentially 50 more to come if one of them wins.

Tournament Matchbets
Back Ernie Els to beat Hunter Mahan 6u @ 1.91
The best match bet of the week also involves Els. When Mahan is finishing seven over par for the Bridgestone, a title he won two years ago, you know his game isn't in great shape. Moreover, Hunter has rarely impressed on a windy links.

Back Luke Donald to beat Tiger Woods 5u @ 2.2
Again, the respective profiles for this pair explain my considerable preference for Donald over Woods in greater detail. Luke's consistency makes him an ideal match betting candidate and he appears to have perfect skill-set for a Pete Dye links-style set-up. In complete contrast, Woods has an appalling record on Dye courses by his standards, missing the top-20 in both PGAs at Whistling Straits and rarely performing well at Sawgrass.

Top-10 Finish
5u Dustin Johnson @ 4.0
3u Padraig Harrington @ 6.0
3u Ernie Els @ 6.6
2u Sergio Garcia 8.8
1u Aaron Baddeley @ 16.5
1u Davis Love @ 19.5

My strategy in the top-ten market is basically to get onside with the best Open Championship players. The career stats in that major, or at other links courses, of Johnson, Harrington, Els and Garcia bear no relation to these highly attractive odds. Baddeley doesn't have anything like their Open pedigree, but is a wind specialist and finished like a train last week. Finally, 1997 PGA champion Davis Love has the all-time best record on Dye layouts and a fine Open record. Just one winner amongst our team of six would more than cover the 15 unit outlay.


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