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Home improvement always occurs...

The last eight nations to host sport's ultimate spectacle have improved upon the gold-medal count that they achieved in their previous participation, and the difference is often staggering. The average rate of increase for the three this century was a ridiculous 62.33% and there have been even more remarkable rises in the past. Spain went from one gold in 1988 to 13 at Barcelona 1992, South Korea doubled up from six to 12 at Seoul 1988 and USA made up for lost time after boycotting Moscow 1980 by going from 34 golds in 1976 to an unprecedented 83 in 1984.


...and Great Britain start from a position of power

Team GB don't need to find much extra to reach the Contrarian's target of 26 because they compete at home four years on from their best ever gold-medal haul. They claimed a superb 19 in Beijing to finish fourth on the medal table, the first time that they had ranked higher than eighth since 1924. It means that Great Britain just require a 37% improvement to hit 26. USA at Atlanta 1996 were the only hosts since 1980 not to manage that but their climb from 37 to 44 was still a seven-gold leap, which is what Great Britain need.


The wonders of the wildcard

One perk of staging the Games is the greater number of medal chances afforded, either through wildcards or automatic entries to certain events. It means that while Great Britain were represented by 311 athletes in Beijing, they will have 541 at their disposal in London. One example of a fresh opportunity arising is in football, where they have been allowed to enter a men and women's side. Both are judged to have an outside shot at winning, with Stuart Pearce's men fourth favourites and Hope Powell's women sixth favourites.


The athletics performance should improve

Great Britain reached a post-WW1 gold-medal record in Beijing without much athletics success, suggesting that it is an area where the gold count could increase this time. Christine Ohuruogu was the sole British winner then in the 400m and defends her title, while Team GB have three other favourites with Jessica Ennis odds-on in the women's heptathlon and Mo Farah a clear frontrunner in the men's 5000m and 10000m. There are several others well placed to challenge, with Dai Greene 4.3 to win the 400m hurdles, Robert Grabarz 6.6 in the high jump, Greg Rutherford also 6.6 in the long jump and Phillips Idowu 8.2 in the triple jump, having been 3.85 before doubts over his fitness surfaced. Perri Shakes Drayton is another gold-medal candidate at 6.2 in the women's 400m hurdles.


There are other clear areas for gains

Athletics is the most obvious spot for a superior British showing but isn't alone. In boxing, GB have earned just two golds in the last ten editions yet have a promising group, the standout being 3.3 super heavyweight favourite Anthony Joshua. Nicola Adams meanwhile is 2.9 in the women's flyweight and Savannah Marshall tops the middleweight market at 3.35.

There is also the prospect of a first British triathlon victory with Alistair Browning 1.61 in the men's and Helen Jenkins 2.2 in the women's. Tennis is another possible source of renewed threat. Andy Murray waved a first-round farewell in 2008 but is third favourite in the men's singles after reaching the Wimbledon final.

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