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Barcelona v AC Milan, 7.45pm, live on Sky Sports 2

Barcelona

Xavi is the star of the team news this week. He missed a public training session on Monday and Pep Guardiola says his participation will be decided as late as possible.

There has also been some discussion about whether the coach will play three or four defenders, but, as Michael Cox has explained, that is a largely academic debate.

Lionel Messi's astonishing goal records have been well documented recently - age 24, he's just become his club's all-time top-scorer - and he's been particularly sharp in the Champions League of late, scoring 30 times in his last 26 matches. Opta offers one small cause for pause, however: Messi converted a penalty against Milan in the group stage, but has not scored from open play in any of his seven appearances against Italian teams.

AC Milan

The consensus is that the 0-0 first-leg result was a good one for Milan, but that is probably an overstatement. It might be a better result for them than was expected by many - including this column - but Champions League and European Cup history has shown Opta that only one in three teams (34/98 in total) that has drawn a first-leg match 0-0 at home has gone on to win their tie.

A somewhat smaller sample shows that Milan themselves have actually won 3/3 ties from this situation. This week, however, Massimiliano Allegri will not be helped by the absence of central defender Thiago Silva.

Match Odds

There is no doubt that Barcelona deserve to be strong favourites. Guardiola's men have won 20/23 competitive games at the Camp Nou this season, while Milan have won only one of their last ten on the road in the Champions League. The 3-0 defeat to Arsenal in the last round was a particularly poor performance.

Five of those ten games have at least been scoring draws. Another one would be good enough to see the Italians into the semi-finals, but Barca's home form is too good and their focus too sharp to countenance something like a repeat of September's 2-2 result here.

Nineteen of Barca's 20 home wins this season have come by margins of at least two goals. Backing them to beat a 1.5-goal handicap looks a good way of increasing your payout here. They will press the opposition hard from the first whistle, as ever, and the value of an away goal for Milan means they will not be comfortable with any sort of one-goal lead.

Over/Under Goals

Champions League games at the Camp Nou have not been as high-scoring as some might imagine: since Guardiola arrived 12/23 have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Six of the ten games that constitute Milan's poor run of form have stayed Under 2.5 Goals.

Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona -1.5 @ 1.80

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