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AC Milan v Barcelona, 19:45 (Live on ITV)

AC Milan

Massimiliano Allegri's team are top of Serie A, but have been as good on the road (W10/15) as they have at the San Siro (W9/14). In 2012 Inter, Juventus (twice) and Napoli have all avoided defeat away to Milan in domestic competitions.

With Robinho and Pato sidelined by injury, the spotlight is on Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has scored on five of his six Champions League appearances this season.

Another ex-Barcelona player, Mark van Bommel, is banned for this match. The Dutchman scored an own goal when these two met in Italy in the group stage and might not be missed as much as Thiago Silva.

Barcelona

The Spanish champions won here in the group stages (3-2). Some terrific recent form helps make them favourites to win the first leg, the second leg, the tie and indeed the whole of this season's Champions League.

Pep Guardiola's squad contains some players on the long-term injured list - David Villa, Ibrahim Afellay, among others - but the Blaugrana have been achieving excellent results without them.

Lionel Messi is fit and, like always, raring to go. He's scored on each of his last eight club appearances and in all four of their Champions League away games this season.

Match Odds

Barcelona are battling history - Milan are unbeaten in 14 previous quarter-final home games in the European Cup and Champions League - but are good enough to come out on top.

Guardiola's team are on a winning streak of nine in all competitions. They've also won their last six Champions League away games. Together, those 15 victories make a compelling case for the visitors.

If you're after an odds-against bet, think about backing Barca to be ahead at half-time and full-time. Barcelona/Barcelona has paid out in 14 of those 15 wins.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Barcelona are the Champions League's most profilic scorers this season (30 goals in eight games, 15 in four away from home). Having conceded 11 times in their eight matches, Milan have statistically the worst defence of any still left in the competition.

There were nine goals in the two group-stage meetings and Over 2.5 Goals is a worthy 1.75 favourite.

Recommended Bets: Back Barcelona/Barcelona @ 2.8; back Lionel Messi To Score @ 1.8

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