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Peterborough v West Ham

I'm a massive believer in digging out current form, short-term trends and recent results when looking for bets in the all-too-unpredictable world of the Championship.

But with this one I am shifting slightly, simply because even allowing for their indifferent recent form, the Hammers should be able to win this. If they don't, then their game in hand is spent and they will be at least a win behind the top two. And let's be honest, even though their recent form is no wins in five attempts, this is a West Ham side that has not lost in 10 league games, dating back to January 31.

The fact they have drawn seven and only won three of them is the reason why we can back a team arguably stronger than any in this division at 2.06 to win at a side that was playing League One last season and has itself only won three in 15.

Despite having more strikers on the books than on your average picket line, Hammers' boss Sam Allardyce bemoans the fact his side are failing to their chances and kill opponents off. Yet the Hammers have still found the net in each of their last eight away games, and in this fixture will face the team with the next-to-worst home defensive record in the division.

Peterborough have conceded a goal in all but two of their 18 league games at London Road, and they have a poor record against teams in the top four, losing five of the six they have played so far. Equally telling in the fact that the Hammers have won 10 of 13 so far against teams in the bottom third of the table. At the price available, you have to back the away win.

Back West Ham @ 2.06


Ipswich v Middlesbrough

Mid-September must feel like a lot more than six months ago to Middlesbrough fans. Back then, they were top of the table and in the midst of an unbeaten 11-game start to the season. But a thinner-than-preferable squad has hit Tony Mowbray's side in the second half of the season, and since the turn of the year they have won only four of 14 and are now battling to cling onto a play-off place. They are currently without a win in four, and could only draw with a very out-of-form Bristol City side at the weekend.

Ipswich, on the other hand, are on song: they were unbeaten in five before losing 2-1 at Watford on Saturday, and having seen that game, I must admit they could have been well on the way to three points if they had taken the first-half chances they created. Instead, they didn't kill the Hornets off and were punished after the break.

However, it's home results that have been the foundation for the Tractor Boys' recent good run - five consecutive wins and 15 goals in the process. That sequence included resounding wins over the likes of West Ham and Cardiff, and with Boro looking fragile at the moment, they can extend it to six at a decent price.

Back Ipswich @ 2.3


Crystal Palace v Doncaster

If they could have scored goals as readily as they have stopped them at home, surely Crystal Palace would be in the promotion shake-up. The Eagles have the best home defensive record in the division, and have kept 10 clean sheets in their 18 league games at Selhurst Park. But they don't go on and win games often enough: half of those 18 have ended in a draw.

More recently, though, they have found how to turn a shut-out into three points, winning three of their last four in front of their home fans and not conceding in any of them. A win here, and they will be only four points shy of the play-off places.

So, what might help a team that knows how to keep opponents out, but then struggles to score the goals to beat them? Well, how about a visit from the worst travelling defence in the division? Doncaster have been conceding goals at a rate of more than two a game on their travels all season long. They have let in a goal or more in all but one of their 19 away games - in fact, they have shipped two or more in 15 of them. Don't expect Palace to dish out a thrashing, but they look a decent bet to win.

Back Crystal Palace @ 1.82

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