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Ipswich v Bristol City

You have to go back to late August to find the only time Bristol City have been out of the bottom six this season. Although the arrival of manager Derek McInnes sparked a run of four league wins from five in November, the Robins have not managed to climb higher than 19th since those embryonic league tables back at the start of the season.

And currently they are on a slide, five defeats from their last six league outings dropping them to 21st in the table. They have lost six of their last seven away matches, and I can see that becoming seven out of eight when they visit a rejuvenated Ipswich.

Paul Jewell's side had won four on the spin before last weekend's defeat at Brighton and have lifted themselves into the relative safety of mid-table - their last two home wins have been particularly eye-catching, the 5-1 rout of West Ham followed by a 3-0 success over Cardiff. The Tractor Boys have also shown a pretty ruthless streak against struggling sides: they have won five out of six so far against teams 21st or lower.

Back Ipswich @ 1.83


Birmingham v Derby

Having been so strong defensively, it was a shock not only that Birmingham lost to Nottingham Forest last weekend, but also that they conceded two goals in the process. They were the first goals the Blues had shipped at St Andrews in four games, and that will have hurt Chris Hughton and his side. So, I'm going to give them another chance to deliver a successful shut-out when out-of-sorts Derby visit on Saturday.

The Rams are seeing any chance of being involved in the promotion shake-up evaporate fast as a run of six games without a win has seen them fall to 15th in the table. The fact they have failed to score in five of those six adds weight to my feeling that Birmingham will return to their defensive strengths in this one. Even after last weekend, the Midlands club still own the best home defensive record in the division, and concede at a rate of less than half a goal per game in front of their own fans.

Back Birmingham Clean Sheet @ 2.0


Doncaster v Brighton

As the list of remaining games gets shorter, and the gap between Doncaster and safety doesn't get any less, you have to think that Rovers are starting to look destined for the drop. They have been in the bottom two since mid-October, during which time they have won only four league games from 20. They are poor in front of goal: no team has scored fewer at home than Rovers, who have managed only 12 in 15 league games. Indeed, matches are generally tight at the Keepmoat: the 15 games there have seen the net bulge just 28 times at an average of 1.87 per game.

Backing Under 2.5 Goals for Donny home league games would have seen you collect 73% of the season so far - and Brighton away league games are not far behind, with Unders being a winning bet in 65% of the Seagull's trips on the road. Gus Poyet's side are unbeaten in their last nine league games, and have conceded just five goals in that sequence.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75

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