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Match Odds

Basel need to win to qualify for the last 16. Manchester United must only draw to make the knockout phase and need to win and see Benfica drop points in the group's other game to claim top spot.

United suffered one of the shocks of the group stage when they could only draw 3-3 at home to Basel the first time the sides met, but I can't see Sir Alex Ferguson's side making the same mistakes again. Their backs are against the wall and, in these situations, United normally come through.

United's price of 1.66 is more tempting than Basel at 6.6 or the draw at 3.9. United's away form in this competition is another reason to back the visitors: they have won 16 and lost just one of their last 25 Champions League away games.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals
We've seen United run up comfortable winning scorelines against outsiders (according to the market) on so many European nights down the years, but the stats suggest that under 2.5 goals might be the smart bet. Basel look likely to concede at least once if you look at their recent European record - they've kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 European games - and United have an excellent away defensive record, suggesting the overall goals count could be low. United have conceded in just one of their last eight games on the road in this competition, so I favour under 2.5 goals at 2.1 rather than overs at 1.87.

Man Utd to win to nil
United's excellent defensive record on the road in this competition means you ought to consider the visitors to win to nil at 2.92 if you're looking for a bigger price than the 1.66 on United simply to win. That price looks too big.

An alternative would be to back Man Utd -1.0 on the Asian handicap at 2.07. That way, you'll get your stakes back if United win by a single goal, and make a profit if they win by two goals or more.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Man Utd to win to nil @ 2.92.
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.07.

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