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Ukraine and Poland, as joint hosts, will be there.

Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Holland, Sweden, Greece, Denmark and Russia will also grace Euro 2012... even England are going along to make up the numbers.

That leaves just four places up for grabs at next year's finals... places to be determined by the upcoming play-offs.

Over two legs, Portugal 1.38 are expected to see off Bosnia 3.4, the Republic of Ireland 1.38 are warm favourites to beat Estonia 3.5 and the market fully expects the Czech Republic 1.58 to qualify over Montenegro 2.6.

In fact, Croatia 1.84 against Turkey 2.16 looks the only genuine pick 'em.

All will be played out over the next seven days... but the purpose of this study isn't the substance of the results, more the style.

Typically cagey affairs.Teams playing it safe, keeping it tight.That's what we're led to believe will happen.

That's popular wisdom for you.

Well, as ever, we're keen to put such urban myths to the test. See for ourselves whether they ring true or are in fact something of a red herring in terms of these matches... which, of course, could produce some 'rich pickings' on the Exchange.

But we must remember that play-offs, at least in the history of the European Championships, are a relatively new concept.

First used back in 1996 with just the one 'winner takes all' match played on neutral ground and then in its current two-legged format ahead of Euro 2000 in Belgium & Holland, repeated before Euro 2004 in Portugal, they were ditched by UEFA prior to Austria & Switzerland hosting Euro 2008... only to be brought back again for next year's finals.

The only constant is change as far as football's European bosses are concerned!!

So what have we learned so far from the play-offs we've witnessed over these past few years? And especially the first leg ties...

There were four play-off ties for Euro 2000 (due to joint hosts) and five for Euro 2004.

The nine first leg ties generated 19 goals, averaging a scrap over 2.1 goals/game. Only four matches produced over 2.5 goals... the most common results being 1-0 (2), 1-1 (2), 2-1 (2).

Throw in a goalless draw along with one 2-0 scoreline and the only real deviation from the 'cagey affair' theory was Denmark winning 5-0 against Israel prior to Euro 2000... and even that could be viewed as a rather exceptional match-up.

Incidentally, the second leg of these nine ties only generated 21 goals (average 2.3 goals/game) with again just the four matches making up at over 2.5 goals.

Now for those uneasy at trading on the basis of a relatively small set of figures (which is understandable) an accompanying set of figures has also been produced for the European play-offs ahead of the most recent World Cups... play-offs being a standard feature here since 1998.

Since that time, 15 World Cup play-offs have seen first leg matches return 35 goals (2.3 goals/game) and 37 goals in second legs (2.46 goals per game). There were just four ties over 2.5 goals in the first leg... and just four in the second legs.

And that really does back-up this common perception of play-offs.

After all, we've generally got widely experienced, well-organised sides in opposition, playing in good form, competing for a huge prize... qualification.

Not a time to be all gung-ho!

We must also factor in the available head-to-head data.

The Czech Republic and Montenegro have never met... but Portugal and Bosnia/Herzegovina met in the play-offs prior to the 2010 World Cup, the Portuguese winning both legs 1-0.

The Republic of Ireland faced Estonia twice prior to the 2002 World Cup, Eire winning 2-0 home and away... Turkey and Croatia actually met in the Euro 2008 finals in Vienna, drawing the match 1-1.

Goals generally not that abundant.

Consider also the data from their qualification matches. Only Portugal (aided considerably by the presence of Cyprus) who managed 33 goals for and against in 10 games and Estonia, with 29 in their 10 qualifiers, averaged over 2.5 goals per game. At the other extreme, Montenegro generated a mere 14 in total from their entire Group G campaign.

Hence we find generally low-scoring teams, in frequently low-scoring matches, with predominantly low-scoring profiles.

A recipe for drama and maybe controversy but goals... not necessarily!

Key Statistic
Bizarrely for such low-scoring affairs the nine first leg ties in the Euro qualifiers (2000 & 2004) produced just four draws... the 15 first leg ties in the World Cup play-offs since 1998 also delivered just four stalemates.

Recommended Bets
Czech Republic to beat Montenegro 1-0 6.8 or 2-0 7.8
Turkey v Croatia under 2.5 goals 1.59

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