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Carles Puyol is expected to start for Barcelona after recording from knee surgery. The first-choice, three-man midfield of Sergio Busquets, Xavi and Andres Iniesta is set to be on the teamsheet. David Villa will line-up alongside Pedro and Lionel Messi as Alexis Sanchez is out (hamstring).

For AC Milan, Taye Taiwo and Mathieu Flamini are injured, and Gennaro Gattuso suspended. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is also out after suffering a muscle pull in training on Monday.

Match Odds

One of the problems with betting on Barcelona matches these days is making the Spaniards pay. Odds of 1.3 on the Blaugrana winning the game will hold little appeal, especially considering their magnificent home record of W29-D4-L1 (85% win rate) since the start of the 2010-11 season.

Milan are 12.0 with the draw 6.0. There are no strong reasons to support the Serie A champions, who have won only one of their last four Champions League away games.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Barcelona's opening two league games have both featured over 3.5 goals, never mind over 2.5 goals: they thrashed Villarreal 5-0 before drawing 2-2 at Real Sociedad on Saturday night. Milan's Serie A defence began with a 2-2 draw at Lazio on Friday night.

Over 2.5 goals is understandably short at 1.57, but Barca's home European games tend to be lower-scoring than their league matches: six of nine group fixtures under Josep Guardiola have featured under 2.5 goals. I'd be therefore more inclined to back unders at 2.66, with the potential to lay off for a profit should the game remain goalless for the opening 25 minutes or so.

Barcelona Clean Sheet?

With so much focus on the attacking brilliance of Barcelona's play it's easy to forget how well they defend. They kept two clean sheets in last year's group stage and have done so in more than half their games in all competitions since the start of last season, suggesting the 2.08 on them doing so is a touch too big.

Best Bet: Barcelona v AC Milan under 2.5 goals @ 2.66.
Other Recommended Bet: 'Yes' in Barcelona Clean Sheet? market @ 2.08.

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