Betting.Betfair

The Betfair Contrarian opposed New Zealand in the Tri-Nations - a bold call, as they'd taken the title in five of the previous six years. Now he's stunned to find 1.79 offered on them delivering in the World Cup. Here's why he's excitedly opposing the All Blacks again at 1.81...

They've disappointed too often

The All Blacks are always favourites to lift the World Cup, so why is it that you have to scan back to the inaugural contest in 1987 to find the last time that they got their hands on the silverware? Because they consistently prove incapable of justifying the big billing. Four years ago, they were backed at 1.38 before sinking to a new low by missing out on the final four, losingin the quarter-finals to France.

Home advantage is overrated

Hosting the World Cup probably means a bit more to the All Blacks than most nations because home losses are fairly rare for them, however they have been toppled in front of their fans this century by each of the four countries ranked directly below them, so it isn't a huge edge. And as much as lots of support and familiarity with your surroundings provides a boost, there is also the increased pressure to contend with. That will scale new heights in New Zealand, given their wait for the top prize. The All Blacks struggle enough to handle the favourites tag without having to shoulder more expectation. The last three hosts failed to deliver, with just one reaching the final in that time.

They enter it in disarray

New Zealand's performances at the last three World Cups won't be remembered too fondly, but at least they went into those tournaments at the top of their game, having already proven themselves as the southern hemisphere's standout side in the Tri-Nations. That isn't the case this time after they surrendered the trophy that they won in record-breaking fashion in 2010 to Australia, losing to both them and World Cup holders South Africa in their final two games after making the early pace. The competition also marked only the fourth time in the last decade that they suffered successive defeats. Not the kind of form you want to be taking into a World Cup.

Sticking with the old guard may prove misguided

The Contrarian is a fan of loyalty but New Zealand retaining a coach who, however you look at it, underachieved four years ago, is a rare occasion where he would have advocated a different response. This is Graham Henry's third World Cup and the first two were far from glorious triumphs. He led Wales on home soil in 1999, winning eight matches in a row in the build-up, yet they became the only ever outright hosts to be eliminated before the semi-finals. He was then in charge of the All Blacks for their last-eight exit in 2007, clinging onto his job despite polls showing that the majority of fans wanted him gone. England's 2003 hero Clive Woodward is the only coach to have been crowned champion with a nation who he had come up short with in the previous edition.

For more rugby betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/rugby-bet/