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New Zealand were priced at 4-7 to win the World Cup in France four years ago so at a similar price at home Graham Henry's side look better value to lift the Webb Ellis Trophy than they did in 2007. Every host, or at least one of the joint-hosts, had made the final before France bowed out to England in the Stade de France at the semi-final stage and it is clear the All Blacks can use home advantage to go a long way.

In terms of results, New Zealand are heads and shoulders above the opposition and their ability to turnover ball through Richie McCaw and then conjure tries with the possession through Dan Carter is unparalleled.

Of the 17 matches that New Zealand have lost going back to the start of 2003, McCaw and Carter featured together in only seven of those which shows how crucial they are when they operate in tandem.

New Zealand's try-scoring power is such that Henry saw fit to leave out of his squad Hosea Gear, who has scored five tries in eight matches, and Sitiveni Sivivatu, who has crossed the whitewash for New Zealand 33 times in 45 matches. In the 233 world cup matches to date there have been only ten instances of teams scoring fewer tries but winning the match. It is much the same in the Six Nations and is more acute in the Tri-Nations where there is less emphasis on place-kicking. The All Blacks will be hard to beat.

Despite New Zealand's overwhelming superiority, however, there are grounds for thinking that they are too short in the market. Whereas in 2007 New Zealand came into the tournament with a near-flawless record, this time around they are much weaker. Before the World Cup in France, New Zealand had not lost a home fixture since England beat them in Wellington in 2003, and had lost just five matches since losing to Australia in the 2003 tournament. Since losing sensationally to Bernard Laporte's Les Blues in Cardiff in the quarter-final, the All Blacks have played 48 matches and have lost nine. Crucially, they have foundered at home, to France and South Africa, both of whom they are slated to play this time around.

France face the hosts on September 24 for their Pool A clash in Auckland. If Henry's side negotiate that fixture to top their group they then face the runner-up of Pool B, which could be any of England, Scotland or Argentina, before a scheduled meeting against the Springboks in the semi-final. It is hardly a charmed passage to the final, and one much harder than that enjoyed by South Africa four years ago. South Africa avoided both of their Tri-Nations counterparts to secure their second World Cup success. If Australia stick to the path laid out for them by the draw they are set to face either South Africa or New Zealand only in the final.

For much of the last four years, Robbie Deans' side have seemed to lack the necessary ability away from home to win a World Cup, but since their demolition of France in Paris during the autumn internationals they have looked far more likely candidates. Although they faced a Springbok side that was short of game time in round four of this year's Tri-Nations, to inflict defeat on South Africa in Durban was a significant achievement. That victory contributed significantly to the Wallabies' first Tri-Nations success for a decade but the nagging feeling is that in James O'Connor and Quade Cooper they have goal-kickers that fall short of the required level.

Grant Fox in 1987, Michael Lynagh in 1991, Joel Stransky in 1995, Matt Burke in 1999, Jonny Wilkinson in 2003 and Percy Montgomery in 2007 all kicked their teams out of tricky situations during successful campaigns. If O'Connor and Cooper lack the dead-eyed accuracy to propel Australia to their first World Cup win out of Europe, at 5.0 on Betfair the squad has the nuts and bolts to give traders a run for their money. Backing them should throw up numerous possibilities to generate a profit throughout the tournament, something which you cannot say about the odds on New Zealand.

Australia will meet the runner-up of Pool D, known as the 'Pool of Death' because it features Wales, Fiji and Samoa. Samoa defied a 17-point handicap start to comprehensively defeat Australia in Stadium Australia in July. It was one of the rare occasions that Fuimaono Tafua, the coach, had assembled his best side. Many of Samoa's star players were in training camp during their disappointing Pacific Nations Cup defeats to Fiji and Tonga and their record of knocking Wales out of World Cups is impressive if 1991 and 1999 is anything to go by.

Argentina finished third in France, not only because they had an excellent group of players who felt they had something to prove to the rugby world, but also because many of them turned out for French sides and were well supported. It will be the same story for Samoa - their match against the Springboks in North Harbour was one of the first to sell out.

If Samoa are buoyed by extensive support and have players who feel as if they are at home, it is a similar case for Fiji, who knocked Wales out in 2007 and drew with them in November in Cardiff. Warren Gatland may have a strong squad at his disposal and they are the fittest they have ever been after two trips to boot camp in Poland. They were impressive at home against England and Argentina, but the fact remains that since they won their Grand Slam in 2008 the only teams they have beaten away from the Millennium Stadium are Italy, Scotland, Canada and the USA, teams which would not hold a candle to the ones ready to send them packing once again.

There is one high street layer going 9-2 about Wales exiting the tournament at the group stage. At the time of writing the stage of elimination market was immature on Betfair, but put up a price and try to get matched at a similar level because, despite their ability as a team, Wales are up against it in a difficult Pool.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Australia at 5.0
Back Wales to be eliminated at the Pool stage at around 5.0

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