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Birmingham 2.26 v Nacional 3.75; The Draw 3.4

I shared a drink with a few Birmingham fans ahead of their Championship game at Middlesbrough last Sunday, and they were as baffled as I was that Chris Hughton fielded his strongest team available for the game in Portugal last week. I then watched Boro ease past the same Brum team in the second half as a few tired legs and minds definitely appeared to set in.

Credit to Hughton for taking this competition seriously then, but with 46 Championship games, Carling Cup and FA Cup fixtures to be played, then I would have thought the last thing Birmingham need is another six groups games in a competition they are not going to win. Six more games is what they might get though, especially if defenders Liam Ridgewell, Steven Caldwell and Curtis Davies play as well as they did seven days ago.

Expect this game to be another tight affair with both defences on top. Don't be surprised if it ends 0-0 again - available to back at 9.4 in the Correct Score market - but a much safer bet should be Under 2.5 Goals at 1.76, and to a slightly lesser extent, Under 1.5 Goals at 3.2.


Dnipro 2.32 v Fulham 3.5; The Draw 3.4

Ukrainian outfit Dnipro took 80 minutes to register a shot on target at Craven Cottage last week, and but for some poor finishing from the hosts they could have lost that first leg by double the three goal margin they actually did. This return leg will obviously be a lot tougher for Martin Jol's Fulham side but I'd be amazed if the 2010 runners-up relinquish their advantage. If you disagree then you can back Dnipro at 16.0 in the To Qualify market.

In fact, I'm quite surprised that Fulham are as big as 3.5 to win this game. The Ukrainians have failed to register a win in any of their last four outings, have already lost two of their three home games this season, and as I said earlier, could have been beaten out of sight in London last week. A chance is taken on the away team then.


Stoke 1.53 v Thun 8.6; The Draw 4.2

Stoke hold just a slender lead in this play-off tie but I fully expect Tony Pulis' men to 'pull clear' so to speak as this game goes on. The Potters are hard to break down at the best of times, but on home soil they are particularly strong - as Chelsea will testify from just 10 days ago - and I just can't see the Swiss League leaders having enough ability to get back into this one.

There are a few betting opportunities in this game, the most appealing one perhaps being the 2.4 on offer about Stoke winning to Nil. But I also like the look of Draw/Stoke at 4.8 in the Half Time/Full Time market. First and foremost on Pulis' mind will be not to concede a goal, and that could put just a little more emphasis on defending rather than attacking during the first 45 minutes. I fully expect Stoke to win, but hopefully they won't assert until the second half.


Tottenham 1.27 v Hearts 15.0; The Draw 6.4

This tie was settled seven days ago at Tynecastle, and that luxury will allow Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp to make wholesale changes for this return leg. After facing Manchester United on Monday night, and with Manchester City next on the horizon (Sunday), Redknapp is almost certain to leave a host of big names out for the visit of hapless Hearts. And to be quite frank, he could field a team of White Hart Lane tea ladies on the evidence of what we saw last week.

Paulo Sergio's SPL outfit will be playing for pride only, and that means simply to keep the score down. Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at 2.58 and that seems one of the few wagers worth chancing without knowing the exact strength of Redknapp's starting XI.

Recommended Bets:
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.76 in Birmingham v Nacional
Back Fulham @ 3.5 to beat Dnipro
Back Draw HT/Stoke FT @ 4.8 v Thun
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.58 in Tottenham v Hearts

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