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After more than a decade of Top Four finishes, this could be the season that poor defending really catches up with them and allows a well-balanced and well-led Liverpool team to pip Arsene Wenger's side for fourth place.


In my preview of the winner market I hinted that I thought the Premier League title was very much a three-horse race with Manchester United my tip to finish top of the pile. Manchester City and Chelsea are hard to split as regards who will come second; it may well go down to the wire as regards who wins that particular battle.

But we'll leave the prices on United (1.08), Chelsea (1.19) and Manchester City (1.27) alone as we go in search of bigger odds.

So the tougher question is who will grab that priceless fourth spot which gives you access to the qualifying stages of the Champions League and all the riches that come with a place in the competition proper?

I'm not convinced the likes of Aston Villa (25.0) and Everton (16.0) can finish that high up and I'm going to be even bolder here and rule out Tottenham (4.7) too. I'm just not sure that over the summer they have made the signings they needed to which would allow them to be a live runner in the race for fourth.

Their task will be made even harder if Luka Modric ends up leaving the club, which still hasn't been ruled out. Of course Harry Redknapp may yet pull another rabbit out of the hat on transfer deadline day, as he has a history of doing, but right now, the squad just isn't strong enough for me.

As someone who represented Arsenal (1.8) for almost his whole career, it's been frustrating to witness what's happened at my old club over the past few seasons. It's been similarly frustrating for the fans who watch them week-in week-out and Arsene Wenger himself. We all know how much talent there is in that squad and how they can pass any team off the park on their day. Yes, they can be guilty of overdoing the fancy stuff and not scoring as many goals as they should, but that's far from being their biggest problem.

You simply don't win Premier League titles by defending as poorly as they have over the last few seasons. The worst of it is that all the stats and analysis actually tell you exactly how the goals are being leaked. Almost half of them last season came from set-pieces so that's clearly the problem area; a solution just hasn't been found to stop it from happening.

When I was part of that famous Arsenal back-four I couldn't head a ball to save my life but others around me certainly could. Tony Adams, Martin Keown and Steve Bould amongst others would risk life and limb to get their heads on that ball before an opponent did. And there aren't players in this current squad who do that like those guys used to. Whether it's because they're different types of players or some other reason I don't know, but until Arsenal can find at least one defender like my old team-mates I'm not sure results are going to improve.

The constant speculation regarding Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri hasn't helped either. I think at least one will end up staying and it may well be that they both do but there's no denying that if they do stay, neither Fabregas nor Nasri will be in the best frame of mind with less than a week to go for the season to start.

And finally, there's Liverpool (2.20). There's been much talk about the money they've spent on the likes of Charlie Adam, Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson.

I think they're all good signings. We'll have to wait and see how Adam copes with being a smaller fish in a bigger pond but he certainly showed last season that he's comfortable playing at this level. Downing is a player with huge experience of this league and will provide some natural width which I'm sure Andy Carroll, in particular, will relish. Henderson will improve courtesy of being surrounded by such great players everyday.

Spanish full-back Jose Enrique may soon be joining them according to reports and if he does sign for the Reds, he will be a solid option in what has been a problem position for them.

But it's within the club itself that Kenny Dalglish has made what could prove to be an even more important move. He's done a great job of promoting the academy and by blooding youngsters in the first team at the back end of last season, sent the message to all that if you're good enough, you're old enough. We know how good the likes of Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard are but who knows how important a role some of these younger players may have in this campaign. With a manager who knows the ropes as well as Dalglish does, a strong finish to last season and a really well-balanced squad, my money has to be on Liverpool at 2.2 to grab that fourth spot.


Recommended Bet:

Back Liverpool in the Top 4 market @ 2.2


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