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Andrew Atherley roots through the statistics to bring you a trio of suggested bets in the 2011-12 Barclays Premier League relegation market...


Almost every season the Premier League relegation market is headed by the three promoted teams and this season is no exception, with Swansea favourites at 1.67, Norwich next at 1.88 and then QPR at 2.78.

But almost every season the market is confounded, with the promoted teams often performing better than expected. Just once have all three newcomers been relegated in the 16 seasons since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams, with one or none being relegated in 10 of those 16 seasons.

That indicates we should expect at least one of the promoted teams to stay up - you have to go back 14 seasons to find the last time all three went straight back down.

That is not to say the promoted teams are invulnerable - they have provided 46% of the relegated teams in the past 16 seasons. Almost half of those have been the team that came up through the playoffs (relegated in six of the past eight seasons) and Swansea are the obvious favourite.

Going by the stats it is better to lay at least one of the teams that secured automatic promotion, who have a 63% survival rate. The best candidate this season is Norwich, who are 1.89 to lay.

This is a big step up for Paul Lambert's team, who were in League One this time two years ago, but there are several form factors that point to a bold bid and their start (with only four games in the first three months against teams from last season's top half) could hardly be better.

Along with the promoted teams, a long list of nine relegation candidates can be produced by adding in the worst six survivors from last season: Newcastle, Stoke, Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan and Wolves.

All told, 85% of the relegated teams in the past 16 seasons have been a promoted team or one of the previous season's worst six survivors.

There is an additional factor to consider this season, as for the first time in eight years all of last season's survivors had 40 or more points. That sets the bar higher for the promoted teams, and in six previous seasons with that scenario the newcomers have gone back down at a slightly higher rate of 50%.

But still, 83% of the relegated teams have been drawn from the promoted teams or the worst six survivors - one other slight variation is that it becomes more likely that one of the worst three survivors will go down (this season, that group is Blackburn, Wigan and Wolves).

Another factor with the surviving teams is that they are more vulnerable if they did worse (in terms of position) last season than the season before or are a second-season team that didn't climb as high last season.

That points to the value among the top six in the betting (which, on average, includes around three-quarters of the relegated teams) lying with Blackburn at 3.9 and Wolves at 4.4.

Blackburn went backwards last season (dropping from 10th to 15th) and they may not have reached the bottom yet, as there was little improvement in their points average after Steve Kean was appointed manager last December. Kean's points average indicates they will barely scrape 40 points.

Wolves have been 15th and 17th (with 38 points and 40 points respectively) in their two seasons since promotion and the likelihood is that they will struggle again.

Just outside the top six in the betting, Bolton have to be considered as a back-to-lay at 6.0 as they face Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool in their opening seven games. If those games go badly, Bolton are likely to be near the bottom and much shorter odds to be relegated by early October.


Recommended Bets

Lay Norwich at 1.89
Back Blackburn at 3.9
Back Wolves at 4.4


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