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The Betfair Contrarian explains why he thinks there will be a homegrown winner on Sunday...

Hamilton loves it at Silverstone

The 2008 world champion has had more success at Silverstone in four years as a Formula One driver than most British racers experience in a lifetime, having claimed a win, a pole position and three podium finishes in his four previous attempts to take the chequered flag at his home Grand Prix. Add his two victories there when competing in the GP2 Series in 2006 into the mix and he has as many wins to his name in Northamptonshire as Formula One record breaker, Michael Schumacher, who is 16 years his senior.

None of the current crop excel there

Schumacher is the only driver on the circuit to have triumphed more than once at the British Grand Prix and, as his odds of 160.00 indicate, his Mercedes team don't currently have the car to make him a realistic contender. None of the others in the top five of the Drivers' Championship have records to intimidate Hamilton there, with leader Sebastian Vettel 1.86 failing to finish one and coming seventh in another of his three outings to date. Last year's winner Mark Webber 8.2 is cursed by the fact that nobody since David Coulthard in 1999 and 2000 has taken first place in successive seasons, while Fernando Alonso 8.0 came a dire 14th in both 2009 and 2010. As for Jenson Button...

Hamilton is the only hope of British glory

Paul di Resta's emergence at Force India leaves Britain with three entrants on Sunday, yet just one of the trio has a genuine chance of collecting 25 points. McLaren have earned the joint-most wins of any team in history at Silverstone and Hamilton has admitted that his dream scenario for the weekend ahead is for him and team-mate Button to have the Union Jack unfurled above the top two steps on the podium while representing a British team. It is a hugely ambitious target given the form of Red Bull, but if it is to be achieved, it will almost certainly be Hamilton leading the way as his more experienced compatriot has never made it into the top three in 11 past appearances at Silverstone.

Traditional British weather will favour McLaren

The early forecasts on the BBC Weather website for this weekend are for heavy showers in the afternoons and if that's the case, McLaren will be racing in ideal conditions. Button has commented in the build-up that he believes that their best chance of outperforming Red Bull is to hope for rain, pointing to the evidence of his triumph at Vettel's expense in Canada coupled with their inability to compete in the Valencian heat a fortnight ago, when Hamilton was 46 seconds shy of Vettel and Button a whole minute behind. Hamilton is known to love the rain, much like his childhood hero Ayrton Senna, and it was in wet weather that he delivered at Silverstone in 2008.

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