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Tobias Gourlay saddles up for the 2011 Tour de France, which begins in unusual fashion, but might just have a familiar winner on stage one.


The start of the Tour de France usually brings a prologue and an opportunity to go large on Fabian Cancellara to wear the race's first yellow jersey. Not this year.

Le Tour begins in the Vendee with a full 191.5km stage from Passage du Gois to Mont des Alouettes. The peloton might be battered by crosswinds, but the stage profile is pretty flat until the final fourth-category climb.

The climb is not hard enough to separate the overall contenders, but it might sort the pure sprinters from more powerful classics specialists like Philippe Gilbert (2.44) and Thor Hushovd (8.2), who lead today's Stage Winner market. Gilbert dominates short uphill finishes like Cancellara does time-trials, but usually gives his best performances in colder climates much earlier in the season. Check the weather before lumping on.

Thomas Voeckler (34.0) is from the Vendee and knows the roads better than anyone, training on them throughout the year. He's racing for a new team, Europcar, whose entire Tour will only be judged a success if their team leader wins a stage.

The attention-seeking little Frenchman has won stages in each of the last two Tours, but wouldn't beat Gilbert or Hushovd in a drag sprint to the finish. Voeckler will have to breakaway from them before then. If his first attack doesn't succeed, he'll try and try again. Each time he goes off the front, his price will come in and his backers will get a chance to lay him for profit.

Voeckler will be desperate to win, but the peloton is fresh and will not let him go as easily as it might in a couple of weeks' time. Mark Cavendish (65.0) has been talking down his chances of matching last year's five stage wins because he believes there are fewer sprinter-friendly stages than usual. He should try his luck today. As he pointed out this week, he has won on harder hills - Milan-San Remo in 2009, for example - and disappeared out the back of the pack on easier ones. If he is in contention at the finish, he wins.


Best Bet: Back Mark Cavendish @ 65.0 to be Stage Winner
Recommended Bet: Back-to-lay Thomas Voeckler @ 34.0 to be Stage Winner


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