With the US Open just around the corner it's not easy to focus fully on this week's two events but I've had a go.
At the week's European Tour event in Italy the first thing to ponder is how long will BMW sponsor the event? They must be very thankful that Italian heroes Matteo Manassero and Francesco Molinari have made the effort to attend because after that pair it's a second-rate field.
Matteo looks a little short given that he failed to break 70 here on his professional debut last year and I was more tempted by his compatriot. It's a return to Francesco's hometown of Turin this week and it would be no surprise to see him take a hand in proceedings. Those that snaffled up the 14.0 and 15.0 available early doors have themselves a fair price but given he's still only ever won two European Tour events, I'm quite happy to let him go un-backed at his current price of 12.0.
I've highlighted the chances of outsiders George Coetzee and Gary Boyd in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner piece and my only other pick, Alejandro Canizares, is selected for the exact same reason. Like Boyd and Coetzee, Canizares also qualified for the Open Championship on Monday at Sunningdale.
The Spaniard has had a disappointing start to 2011 but hopefully he's turned the corner now. He was 14th here in 2009 and 10th last year so he certainly ticks the course form box and now that he's shown a modicum of decent form, I thought he was just about a value price at 90.0 in what really is a poor field.
Selections:
Alejandro Canizares @ 90.0
George Coetzee @ 130.0
Gary Boyd @ an average of 160.0
I don't know whether it's just me this week but I feel almost the same about the St Jude Classic as I do about the Italian Open, in that I just can't see any value at the head of the market.
TPC Southwind has been the home of the St Jude Classic since 1989 and it was renovated back in 2004, making it an even tougher test. The venue suits experienced players with an accurate game. Finding greens and good scrambling are always key requirements and an ability to putt on Bermuda is also a prerequisite.
With stroke play form figures of 1-1-3, defending champ Lee Westwood has a very obvious chance, as do in-form past winners David Toms and Brian Gay but their prices more than reflect that. And I wish I'd been on the ball and taken the 36.0 available about Zach Johnson on Sunday night because I can't back him at his current price of less than 20.0 either.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if one of those four won but it makes sense to leave them all for now and hope that they don't all contend. Obviously if they do I'd have missed the value but surely they won't all have a good week and I'd rather take less about one of them, or maybe even two of them, in-running. That's the chance I'm taking anyway.
I have had a couple of bets before the off though, on two players that are very much in the mould of a St Jude Classic winner. Neither is in great form and as a consequence they're reasonably priced but hopefully one of them can get back in the grove this week.
Ben Crane has been in woeful form since being gambled off the boards at the Players Championship but, as is often the case with Ben, there has been injury excuses. He was suffering from a pulled muscle in his ribcage for a while and then he withdrew from the HP Byron Nelson Championship pro-am with an ankle injury. He did play that event, hobbling through the wind to finish a disappointing tied 63rd. Recent form would suggest he's one to avoid but if he hasn't been fit and if he is now then 50.0 is a cracking price for someone that has a game that's perfect for Southwind.
Heath Slocum's form figures here are impressive and he's finished inside the top dozen in four of his last six outings, including a 4th place in 2005 and 6th place last year. Given he's missed his last four cuts there's more than a slight chance he'll flop again this week but he's capable of finding form from nowhere and there's not too much downside at 120.0.
Selections:
Ben Crane @ 50.0
Heath Slocum @ 120.0
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