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Sweden are six points behind the Netherlands in Group E and have a game in hand to play this Tuesday. Erik Hamren's team have won five home qualifiers in a row and are 1.37 to take three points at home to Finland.

Ola Toivonen, the playmaker who scored one and set up another goal in Sweden's 4-1 win over Moldova on Friday, will be expected to shine against the country of his father. But Zlatan Ibrahimovic is fit again and will want his share of the limelight too.

Mixu Paatelainen took charge of Finland for the first time against San Marino on Friday. He finished victorious, but 1-0 is not the result of dreams against San Marino.

Twelve of Finland's last 16 away qualifiers have stayed Under 2.5 Goals, which is an odds-against shot this time (2.04), perhaps because only three of Sweden's last nine competitive home games have been so quiet.

Sweden have won by at least two goals in five of their last six home wins. With a cluster of capable strikers to choose from - don't forget Johan Elmander - Sweden -1.5 on the Asian handicap have some appeal at 2.20.

Best Bet: Back Sweden -1.5 @ 2.20 on the Asian handicap

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