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Accrington v Stevenage

Accrington players want to make amends for a below-par performance at Stevenage last week, when they took a long time to get going. Long-standing players such as Andy Proctor, Ian Craney, Phil Edwards - even Jimmy Ryan with 148 appearances is beginning to look like a long servant - will be desperate to complete this story of the underdogs from non-League rising to League One.

What a tale it would be. Since rejoining the Football League, Accrington have survived the sort of financial troubles that, as before, threatened their very existence and an unseemly ownership squabble. They need the town to back them and this is a sell-out.

Alan Hansen would argue John Coleman should have played his best team in the last league game at Burton, when Stanley made several changes. Was that the reason, with the team restored to full strength, that they began so slowly in the first leg?

Whatever the reason, they need to score as quickly as possible to overturn this deficit. For that reason, the home win at 2.24 is a must, followed by Accrington next goal at 1.7.

After a 14.8 point profit on last week's sheet, I'm determined not to go too mad with bets, although there are many to be considered.

The hosts have to score at least two goals to even draw level - which won't be an easy task against Jon Ashton and Mark Roberts - yet over 2.5 goals is bigger at 2.1. One early goal forces Graham Westley's side to go hunting, so both teams to score at 1.84 seems wholly probable, even though, for the visitors, the team's second top scorer John Mousinho is still suspended. I've got a feeling for a 2-1 home win at third-shortest exact score price of 9.8 and, sadly for Stanley, defeated Coleman to depart at the end of the season for another club of his choosing.

Recommended Bets
Back Accrington to win at 2.24
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.1
Back both teams to score at 1.84
Back Accrington to win 2-1 at 9.8


Shrewsbury v Torquay

Torquay have come unstuck a few times on the road, but also have pulled off some notable results. In addition, they have the psychological advantage of a draw at Shrewsbury already this season, so won't fear New Meadow.

The Gulls left Plainmoor disappointed not to have rammed home their advantage further than 2-0. Confidence is high under another manager, Paul Buckle, about whom there is increasing interest. One way to keep your boss is to satisfy his desire to manage at the highest level he can by gaining promotion. It does seem strange that he is linked with Bristol Rovers and Swindon, two clubs who will be in League Two next season. Do they seem bigger clubs? Well, only slightly if you take into account what Buckle has achieved and built at Torquay.

Buckle began life as manager with just four players, reached the playoffs in his first season, went up in his second and now after a slow start last season has risen to the top seven. That is sheer grafted progression, ingrained in a bunch of players who will not forget it in the heat of this semi-final.

Shrewsbury, meanwhile, need to draw inspiration from defender Ian Sharps - defeated with Rotherham in last year's final - and midfielder Kevin McIntyre, whose late strike two years ago levelled to claw back a first-leg the deficit against Bury.

It's clutching at straws to think the same player might strike twice. The hosts might just edge the game, but I prefer the draw at 3.5 and a tight game, 1.85 being the expected price for under 2.5 goals. It is no surprise that 1-1 is the post popular exact score at 7.0.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw at 3.5
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.85

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