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So overwhelming has Porto's domestic dominance has been this season that it's difficult to argue against the 1.5 about the Dragons winning the all-Portuguese Europa League final. However, Sporting Braga, who are a distant 8.2 to pull off a shock win, are nothing if not obdurate and their defensive record suggests that free-scoring Porto might have to settle for a slender margin of victory.

Porto's season can only be described as sensational. At the start of the season they took a gamble on an unproven 32-year-old with just one year's top-flight coaching experience to his name, but André Villas-Boas has been an overnight sensation. After taking over a side that finished third last season, Villas-Boas has guided the team to the league title with five matches to spare, a place in the Europa League and Portuguese Cup finals and matched the record of the 1972-73 Benfica team by going the entire season without losing a Liga match.

As if being invincible wasn't impressive enough, Porto have embraced an expansive, free-flowing footballing style which has produced a glut of goals. Their 36 Europa League strikes (not including seven more in qualifying) is nine more than the second-highest scoring club (Villarreal), while Falcao's 16 goals in Europe has broken Jurgen Klinsmann's 15-year-old record for goals scored in a single UEFA Europa League or UEFA Cup campaign. Their last four matches in Europe have produced 24 goals: all of which explains why the Blue-and whites are such a short price to win the match and why the match is priced at 1.9 to finish with over 2.5 goals.

Braga, however, are as defensively impressive as Porto are buccaneering. Domingos Pacienca's side have conceded a joint-best four goals since joining the party at the Round of 32 stage, kept five clean sheets in those eight matches and overcome the likes of Liverpool, Dynamo Kyiv and Benfica in the process. And that's before their Champions League campaign - where five more clean sheets and wins over Celtic, Sevilla and Arsenal can be thrown into the bargain - or their current form - where only one of their last seven games has produced more than 2.5 goals. They also welcome their captain Vandinho back from suspension.

The Arsenalistas are clearly not as strong as Porto, whom they have beaten just once - and lost seven times - in their last nine attempts. The Portuguese champions finished a mammoth 38 points above them in the Liga this season, beating them home and away, (3-2 and 2-0), but in Europe Braga have revelled in their role as party poopers, in the same way Fulham did last season, and will fancy their chances of frustrating the Portuguese champions before hitting them either on the break or via a set-piece - as they did against Benfica in the semi-final second leg, when Custodio's header followed by Trojan-like defending did for Benfica.

If Porto do have a chink in their armour it is at the back, where they have shipped 13 goals in the last eight sorties - a fact that might bring draw-backers 4.0 into the equation, while they played dreadfully in the first half of the first leg against Villarreal, going a goal down before rattling off an astonishing five goals after the interval. Braga, meanwhile, have scored less frequently but when they have those goals have generally come in the first half (four out of the five knockout matches in which they have scored).

In terms of the half-time/full-time market, it's worth noting that Porto's two games against Villarreal finished Villarreal/Porto and Draw/Villarreal, which makes both Braga/Porto at [26] and Braga/Draw 25.0 look worth a punt.

Best bet: back under 2.5 goals @ 2.04
Recommended bet HT/FT: Braga/Porto @ [26] and Braga/Draw @ [25].

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