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I know a couple of Nottingham Forest fans, and despite their fine end to the regular season, neither was overly confident of even getting to the Playoff Final, let alone winning it. So, failure to break down a Swansea side that played with 10 men for 89 minutes has done little to increase their optimism - and while I couldn't understand their negativity before kick-off in the first leg, I must admit I share their feeling that the Welsh side will now progress.

History does give Forest a chance - teams who drew the home leg have gone on to reach the final on three of the last seven occasions that the opening game has finished all square. But with Forest having a man advantage for virtually the whole of the game at the City Ground, you do feel their chance may have passed them by.

That feeling gets stronger when you consider that Swansea had the best home record in the division during the regular season. Their 15 wins were more than champions QPR, while they conceded a mere 11 goals in 23 games at The Liberty Stadium, giving them the meanest home defence as well.

Forest were not the best travellers, and particularly struggled on the road against the better teams. They managed just one away against top-half sides all season (ironically in Wales, at Cardiff), and averaged less than a goal a game during those matches.

Swansea's mean home defence coupled with Forest's struggle for goals when they travel to the face the best teams makes a home clean sheet look appealing. The Swans kept the opposition scoreless 21 times during the season, the second best tally in the Championship - and 14 of those came at home.

And staying on the goals theme, I think the price for Under 2.5 goals looks a little plump, even at 1.73.

We've already discussed Swansea's tight home defence - and games generally at The Liberty Stadium were not full of goals. The 23 fixtures produced only 52, the second lowest tally in the division. Meanwhile, Forest's away fixtures delivered just 54 goals, the third lowest total of all clubs.

And both Swansea home fixtures and Forest away games saw Under 2.5 goals pay out 57% of the time. That would suggest Unders should be a bit shorter than 1.73.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals at 1.73
Recommended bet: Back a Swansea clean sheet at 2.5

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