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Because it was live on TV on Easter Monday afternoon, and because it was the first half of a pair of results that decided the second automatic promotion place, there may be the tendency to look at Cardiff's 3-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough and assume the Welsh club are coming into the Play-Offs in no sort of form.

It's an easy trap to fall into given it was such a pivotal, high-profile and surprise result - but it was actually the only defeat the Bluebirds have suffered in their last 10 games. And, what's more, they are unbeaten in their last five away games, a stat which is far more important in this first leg than that isolated Middlesbrough defeat.

The fact Cardiff bounced back and rallied to draw at Burnley on Saturday tells me Dave Jones' side are ready to dig in - and let's not forget, no Championship side won more away games during the regular season than Cardiff.

Not that I am writing off Reading over two legs. A few weeks ago they looked like they could even be in contention for a late dash for second amid a run of eight successive wins. But they then went three without success, a sequence ended only by a narrow win over lowly Derby on Saturday.

So, though Reading were flying a month ago, there is just that chance they peaked a bit too soon. And also encouraging me to side against them is their record at the Madejski against the best sides: they did not manage a home win against top-six opposition and, looking further ahead, they only managed one victory against top six clubs in 10 attempts home and away.

History also suggests home sides do not fare well in these first-leg games: in the last 10 years, only eight of the 20 fixtures have gone the way of the team playing in front of their own fans.

What has been apparent in the most recent Championship Play-Offs is that teams tend to be cagey, not wanting to risk being out of contention before the second leg: four of the last six first-leg games have produced two goals or less.

Four of Reading's five home games against fellow top-six sides ended with less than 2.5 goals, while three of Cardiff's five away games to teams in the top six were similarly low-scoring affairs.

Best bet: Lay Reading at 2.16
Recommended bet: Back Under 2.5 goals at 1.83

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