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Luke Donald @ 2.2 (vs Watson, Wilson) (Starts 13.08)
Sawgrass has always been a tough course where accuracy is more important than power, and given reports of firm, fast fairways, penal rough and baking temperatures, that certainly looks the case again this year. Asides from this layout's infamous water threats, it will be essential to keep the ball in play off the tee, just to retain control of the second shot to drying out greens. Big-hitters may be best served leaving their driver in the bag.

With those conditions in mind, all four of my opening day picks share two central characteristics. They are all among the most accurate players from tee to green, and have high-class short game skills. Luke Donald is a master in both of those departments, and thoroughly deserves to be challenging Woods and Mickelson for favouritism. He's missed only one top-ten since last September and is a former Sawgrass runner-up. Indeed, Luke is ideally suited to these tight, hazard-strewn Pete Dye layouts, as seen when losing a play-off at Harbour Town on his penultimate start.

Both Donald's opponents have enjoyed excellent seasons, with two wins apiece, but look much less suited to these conditions. Bubba Watson's principal asset, power off the tee, offers no meaningful advantage here. He's missed the cut on three out of four previous visits, while the third man Mark Wilson, has a best of 42nd from four tries here.

Ben Crane @ 2.24 (vs Choi, Bettencourt) (Starts 13.39)
Steven Rawlings makes a very strong case for Ben Crane this week, and he also rates excellent value at 2.24 in this group, which could well develop into a match.

Outsider of three Matt Bettencourt's game is under a cloud at the moment, after withdrawing last week for the second time in five events. Since developing an elbow injury a couple of months ago, Bettencourt has a best finish of 59th. There is little expectation he'll improve on four previous rounds at Sawgrass which averaged 76.

Obviously that course form is leagues apart from Crane, whose worst result in the last three renewals is sixth. And while he has been in great form, KJ Choi's previous efforts here offer little inspiration. The Korean has never bettered 16th in nine tries.

Jim Furyk @ 2.5 (vs Johnson, McDowell) (Starts 18.07)
Local favourite Jim Furyk is another player who shouldn't be far away from the lead on Sunday. One of the most accurate drivers of all-time, Furyk has a typically consistent Sawgrass record, only once missing the cut and registering three top-fives this century. He's in decent form with five straight top-25s and went into the notebook after a strong weekend finish.

The competition is fierce in this group, but neither Dustin Johnson or Graeme McDowell bring comparable Sawgrass credentials to the table. Dustin's immense power advantage is neutralised around this tight layout, as seen by a best of 34th in three tries to date. McDowell's best from the same number of tries is 26th, and while his outright odds of 80.0 are rather eyecatching, his most recent results have been very disappointing. Hopefully it's only a blip, but a best finish of 42nd from his last five events does not read well for Gmac.

Matteo Manassero @ 2.8 (vs Fowler, Quiros) (Starts 19.10)
Were it not for the fact he's at a disadvantage making his Sawgrass debut, Matteo Manassero might well have been one of my 100 winner picks. No praise is high enough for the Italian teenager, who has already won two strong events at the age of 18. He hasn't looked fazed on his few US starts so far, making an impact at the World Matchplay and the top-20 in the Transitions Championship. Moreover, Manassero's relentless tee-to-green accuracy will be a huge asset here.

So far as this 3-ball is concerned, it also helps that one of his opponents looks totally unsuited to the track. Alvaro Quiros' huge yet wild hitting looks bound to find trouble at Sawgrass, as it did when finishing 66th on his sole previous visit. Rickie Fowler presents a bigger threat, but he is worth taking on having missed the cut on last year's debut.

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