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This year's NFL Draft is smothered in confusion. The combination of the ongoing labour dispute between owners and players and the lack of a clear-cut candidate to be top pick has left the market wide open. Let's try and work out what's going on, says Richard O'Hagan.

The first pick in the Draft belongs to the Carolina Panthers, who had a torrid 2010 season, going through four quarterbacks in a desperate effort to find some kind of rhythm on offense. For the past couple of weeks everyone seems to have been sure that they would be picking Heismann Trophy winner Cam Newton, the former Auburn QB, as their number one pick. Newton has many of the assets that coaches look for in an ideal quarterback - size, strength, mobility - and few who saw it will never forget the way that he led Auburn to victory from a 24-0 half time deficit against Alabama. However, he only played one year at the top college level, threw a quarter of the number of passes you would usually expect of a top college quarterback, and didn't play in an NFL-style offense at all. Which makes him a surprising short-priced 1.45 favourite to be the first pick in this draft.

On the other hand, there is the revelation that Carolina's star wide receiver Steve Smith cleared out his locker at the end of last season. Players don't do that if they don't expect to be on the roster in the next season. Carolina have two inexperienced quarterbacks on their books in Matt Moore and last year's second round pick Jimmy Clausen. Whilst I don't rate Clausen and never have done, Carolina general manager Marty Hurley certainly does. Couple that fact with the news about Smith and it might be worthwhile taking a look at the top receiver in this draft -AJ Green - who is a whacking 22.0 to go first and 3.1 to be among the first three picks.

Unless Carolina trade out of the first pick - which seems unlikely as there is no team with such a desperate need in any one position that they would trade up into it - then there is probably little point in looking beyond either Newton or Green to go first. Although it is arguable that a team who went 2-14 for the season have needs everywhere on the park, the Panthers' greatest needs are on offense. It's therefore unlikely that cornerback Patrick Peterson (currently on offer at 17.5), defensive tackle Marcel Dareus (5.0) or linebacker Von Miller (8.4) will interest them.

Dareus is more likely to be snapped up by second pickers Denver Broncos. Having brought in the legendary John Elway in the wake of a very disappointing 2010, (Elway publicly denigrated last year's first round pick Tim Tebow), it might be thought that the Broncos would at least look at another quarterback, possibly Blaine Gabbert. However, they seem fixated on Dareus, who is just 1.3 to be the second pick on Thursday, Gabbert is 6.6.

Von Miller is an interesting prospect. He is the only one of the ten lead plaintiffs in the labour dispute not to be an NFL player and clearly fears no-one. He's currently odds-on to be one of the first three picks and his abilities as a pass-rushing linebacker are so great that Buffalo, who pick third, seem unlikely to risk passing up on his talents. That said, Buffalo have greater needs than at linebacker - where they still have their 2009 first round pick Aaron Maybin yet to hit the kind of form you would expect from a top pick linebacker - and their greatest need is at left tackle.

Recommended Bets:
Back AJ Green to be first pick @ 22.0 and to be one of the first three picks @ 3.1

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