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He's at it again - The Betfair Contrarian is repeating a claim made before the whole Premier League season kicked off - that moneybags Manchester City are going to fail in their pursuit of the holy grail that is finishing in the Champions League qualification places.

The Contrarian has been strutting his stuff for years now but very few of his arguments attracted the same level of criticism that his pre-season claim that Manchester City would miss out on Champions League qualification provoked. Earlier in the campaign, it looked like he might be shown up badly but their inability to win away in 2011 has kept the vacancy open, and the Contrarian still recommends snapping up the lay price of 1.39 offered on them failing to finish in the top four...

There's a feeling of déjà vu about the run-in
For the second season running, Manchester City occupy fourth place with six games to go and with their chances of holding on boosted by the fact that they are yet to host fifth-placed Tottenham, while the Lilywhites also still have Chelsea, Arsenal and another top-six club to play. The Citizens surrendered that position of power last year and the stage is set for a repeat, with the scenario so similar that the two teams again collide in a potentially decisive rearranged fixture in May. Spurs have won 12 of the last 14 meetings between the sides, including six of the last seven at Eastlands.

The FA Cup is a huge distraction...
Roberto Mancini took the blame for Monday's alarming 3-0 defeat to Liverpool but the most telling statistic about the game was that, according to the BBC, his players committed just three fouls while being outplayed, compared to, for example, nine when in control against Sunderland a week earlier. Of course, there are no prizes for being the dirtiest in division, however the figure points to a team reluctant to stick their foot in out of fear of picking up an injury or booking that could rule them out of the FA Cup semi-final with Manchester United. Such a tendency doesn't bode well should they make the final, as they would have one eye on that, though a loss to their fiercest rivals that extends their stretch without silverware to beyond 35 years is likely to be even more damaging for morale.

...whereas Tottenham have no such problems
Spurs are out of the Champions League, but having exceeded all expectations and exited to potential winners Real Madrid, there is no reason to believe that the setback will hinder their domestic progress. Indeed, the first-leg thumping in Spain snapped them out of poor form as they beat Stoke last weekend. Another positive effect of the elimination is that after getting a taste, they will be desperate to participate again next season. Harry Redknapp's side won't be daunted by a tricky finale either, as only one of the seven clubs they are still to face defeated them last time out and their record against the Premier League's finest is better than against the strugglers.

Tevez will struggle to exert an influence
Manchester City's top goalscorer Carlos Tevez struck seven times in his final seven Premier League starts last season and even that wasn't enough to secure them a top-four finish, so the prospect of him spending a spell on the sidelines with the hamstring injury that saw him removed early at Anfield doesn't bode well at all. Even if he does make a speedy recovery, his current strike-rate isn't as impressive as Blues fans have come to expect, with his sole top-flight goal over the last two months being a penalty in the 5-0 victory over Sunderland.

Historical trends favour Tottenham
Just a dozen different clubs have finished in the top four in the 18-year history of the Premier League and only two new names have been added to the list in the last 11 years, so it clearly takes one hell of an effort to join the exclusive group. Eight of that dozen made it into the lofty positions in the first three seasons, when things were more unpredictable, with only three more achieving the feat prior to Tottenham last year. Of those, two made it back in again in the following campaign, proving that once you have the experience of making the cut, it's a lot easier to stay there.

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