Betting.Betfair

With the price on Barcelona claiming the Champions League coming in from 2.34 to 2.26, the verdict appears to be that the three-time winner's draw against Shakhtar is a favourable one. The Betfair Contrarian is far from convinced though, and has produced six reasons to oppose the resounding favourites...

Barcelona are still suffering the curse of champions

Retaining the Champions League has proven impossible under the current gruelling format in which fitness and good fortune rank as high on the list of vital attributes for success as quality, with the feat last being achieved by Arrigo Sacchi's famous AC Milan side in 1989-90.

Barcelona became the 20th team to fail to end the streak last year, but the winners' curse lasts more than a year. Instead, it's two campaigns devoid of continental glory that you sign up for by lifting the big-eared trophy aloft. Real Madrid, the ultimate performers in the competition with nine titles to their name, are the only ones exempt, however no other club has triumphed twice in a three-year stretch.

It's not an easy quarter-final draw

Only three of the seven teams that Barcelona could have faced in the quarter-finals have a 100 per cent home record in this year's Champions League so don't mistake Shakhtar Donetsk, who are one of the three, for an easy draw. They have never been beaten at the Donbass Arena in European competition and have seen off Arsenal, Liverpool's Europa League conquerors Sporting Braga and Roma there already this term, while their travelling prowess can hardly be questioned after they stuck three past Roma away from home. They scored another three in the return leg too by the way.

Past results bode well for Shakhtar Donetsk

The Ukrainian champions last tested Barcelona in the 2009 UEFA Super Cup when nowhere near their current level - for example only two of the brilliant Brazilian quartet of Willian, Jadson, Douglas Costa and Luiz Adriano started - and held them for 115 minutes. In fact, the head-to-head statistics for the clash make far better reading for Shakhtar than you'd expect given their respective European histories. Two of the last four meetings have ended in Shakhtar victories, while the last time they collided twice in one season was in Barcelona's 2008-09 treble-winning campaign. On that occasion, Pep Guardiola's men won 2-1 away and lost 3-2 at home - a repeat would see them eliminated.

Barcelona's nemesis awaits in the semis

Should the market leaders overcome Shakhtar, Real Madrid are their probable semi-final opponents. No problem, you might think, given the 5-0 thumping Barca inflicted at the Camp Nou in November. It's almost certain to be a different story this time though, not least because the capital club have the advantage of playing the second leg at the Bernabeu, a significant one as they have won all 22 of their games as hosts under Jose Mourinho. The Special One was of course the man who masterminded Barcelona's exit at this stage last year as Inter Milan boss. He got it badly wrong in his first Clasico yet has La Liga and Copa del Rey encounters against them prior to the semi-finals in which to hone his tactical approach.

Messi won't score if they make the final

Lionel Messi has been the Champions League top goalscorer in each of the last two seasons and is joint-top of this year's standings, while last December he became the first player since Marco van Basten in 1989 to win successive Ballon d'Or awards, so it's not unfair to say that Barcelona rely on the Argentine's moments of magic. Worryingly, he has failed to score in eight career appearances on English soil, which doesn't bode well for Guardiola's side should they reach the final at Wembley.

Their small squad is catching up with them

Few question that Barcelona's first XI is the finest in the world right now but they lack depth beyond that, as the presence of Thiago Alcantara, a 21-year-old with only one Champions League outing to his name, on the bench against Arsenal showed. The ever-reliable and highly experienced Eric Abidal has just had surgery to remove a liver tumour, and encouraging talk that he will make a swift return remains unconfirmed, while Carles Puyol is still out. Several players picked up knocks on their recent visit to Sevilla and if injuries force Sergio Busquets into defence again, his ability to play there is sure to be put to a far more thorough test than the inoffensive Gunners applied last month.