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A rather confusing year for the juvenile division has made the Triumph Hurdle betting akin to a session of musical chairs in terms of the betting market, but with the final serious trial on Saturday, a clearer picture is beginning to emerge. Those twin leviathans of the jumping scene, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have particularly strong hands, but is there anyone who can wrest the prize away?

Let's look at the Ditcheat team first - Sam Winner routed Grandouet on the Old Course in November, albeit in receipt of 8 lbs, and has been favourite for much of the season, but he's drifted to 12.0 in face of support for Zarkandar and may yet be re-routed to the Supreme if that offers the best prospect of give underfoot.

Zarkandar is very much the new kid on the block having made his UK debut as recently February 26. That came when impressively taking the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton, the same race used as a springboard as last year's winner Soldatino. There is little doubt that the Adonis was a strongly-contested race with several other ex-French runners taking part.

Deemed to be slightly backward by Nicholls, but the half-brother to super filly Zarkava looked in top order and put up an excellent performance to see off the highly-promising Molotov. He needed headgear in France, raising doubts about his temperament, but there were no signs of quirkiness at Kempton, and he's very hard to fault.

Lack of experience is Zarkandar's only obvious negative heading to Cheltenham, but it's a fairly minor quibble. He makes the most appeal of the Nicholls runners at 8.4 with another previous favourite, Brampour, now apparently relegated to a supporting role.

As well as Molotov (reported likely to miss the race but of interest with a change of plan), Henderson has a wealth of talent, including Grandouet in the same colours. He was no match for Sam Winner at Cheltenham in November, but he has won his next two starts with ease. The concern is whether he's truly a Cheltenham horse, and he does strike me as a classic flat-track bully.

Moose Moran has been a talking horse and is hard to fancy, whilst I'd nominate A Media Luz as the best of the Henderson runners despite being beaten by Grandouet, at Newbury. She would have won at Kempton on King George day but for crumpling on landing two out, and improved considerably when winning the Chatteris Fen Hurdle at Huntingdon. She wasn't originally considered for this race, but connections may need a rethink after her latest effort, and she makes plenty of appeal at 11.0 especially in receipt of a generous mares' allowance.

One filly I don't fancy is Dermot Weld's Unaccompanied who will be the only Triumph contender to sport a big "P" after toying with her rivals on both starts to date. She's beaten the best juveniles in Ireland on less favourable terms and will attract plenty of patriotic support, but there are two problems with Unaccompanied - her excellent trainer's poor recent record at the Festival, with a host of highly-touted runners failing to justify short odds (including subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage) and her pedigree. She is bred to be classy, and she certainly is, but she is not bred to stay 17f at top speed, and there aren't many ex-Flat milers adorning the roll of honour for this race. I can't get involved at odds of 8.4.

Marsh Warbler has confounded the experts all season. Wide-margin victories in 'gaff-track' contests saw the handicapper hit him with an official rating of 139. In fairness, such a reaction to a nine-length beating of the modest Al Dafa at Sedgefield seemed decidedly judicious, but a beating of the top juveniles, including Sam Winner and Smad Place in the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow has proved the assessor's judgement to be lenient. There's a worry that he's already peaked as a hurdler having won a seller on the Flat as recently as October, however, and I'll pass him by at 16.0.

Alan King's Smad Place is more interesting however, having suffered his only defeat in three UK runs when third in the Finale. A steady pace didn't suit him that day, and he put up a much better performance than many realised when landing the odds at Wincanton on his prep run. He pulled a long way clear with one other there despite a pedestrian early pace, and that marks him down as a genuine contender. His less than orthodox preparation will put a few off, but he looked to strengthen his claims at Wincanton and is the most likely of the leading contenders to be underbet. He looks the standout value to me at odds of 15.0.

Of the others Third Intention looks a fair bet to overturn course form with Local Hero having apparently improved past that one at Haydock last time, but needs to curb a tendency to race with the choke out to have a realistic chance whilst Houblon des Obeaux needs heavy ground to take up his entry. Trop Fort was beaten when falling behind Brampour at Taunton but looked the winner for a long way there and is an intriguing outsider if taking his place, whilst the Willie Mullins trained Twigline has been supported at fancy prices, but has surely run out of time.

Selection: Smad Place
Dangers: Zarkandar, A Media Luz

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