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With 12 nominations, The King's Speech looks all set to dominate the 83rd Academy Awards, and be the big story when we all wake up from our James-Franco-induced-slumber on the morning of Monday February 28. But which gongs is the film most likely to nail? Let us take you by the hand...

Leading Actor: Colin Firth (odds to win 1.06)
Firth looks to have this Oscar banked - making a lovely shiny reserve-bookend for his Golden Globe (and inevitable Bafta) - for two main reasons. First of all, he was playing an actual person from history - it worked wonders in recent ceremonies for Sean Penn as Harvey Milk, Forest Whitaker as Idi Amin, Philip Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote, and Jamie Foxx as Ray Charles. That's four of the last six winners, kids. Secondly, we must consider that he was playing a man with an affliction. The Academy absolutely loves that darling.

Best Picture: The King's Speech (1.3)
So if we assume Firth's oscar is as nailed on as, let's say, Jesus on the cross, that may be bad news for the film itself. One needs to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time that a Best Picture also starred a Best Actor (Russell Crowe and Gladiator since you asked so nicely). This could undoubtedly open the door for Aaron Sorkin's The Social Network, currently second-favourite at 5.0. Indeed, a story about modern-day technology may prove irresistible to the crusty Academy voters in their endless quest to appear down with the kids.

Best Director: Tom Hooper (2.12)
And should the above chain of events come to pass, Tom Hooper would certainly have his work cut out to snag the gong for Best Director, with only four movies not pulling off the classic Best Film/Best Director double in the past 20 years. All this is potentially good news for David Fincher, and his hip story about geeks being all young and ambitious. The betting has him at 2.16 - the tightest two-horse race of the evening.

Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush (6.8)
Only once in the past 50 years has a movie spawned the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor (Mystic River in 2003), so Geoffrey Rush would be wise to start practising his loser's smile - Christian Bale is widely touted for the Supporting Oscar, and is indeed a 1.16 hot-shot.

Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter (10.0)
But for a decent outside bet, it might be worth taking a long look at Helena Bonham-Carter, who put in a very decent shift as the Queen Mum, and could prove to be one of the minor upsets of the night in the Best Supporting Actress category.

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