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A legend that always bounces back - that's the Betfair Contrarian's assessment of Kauto Star as he explains why you should back Paul Nicholl's two-time Gold Cup winner for more Cheltenham glory in 2011...


The Contrarian has twice argued against Kauto Star winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, so is under no illusion just how hard it is to oppose the horse which BBC Sports Personality of the Year Tony McCoy described as the best in his lifetime. Imagine therefore the favourite-layer's relief upon learning that his latest assignment was to state the case for backing the two-time winner at an absurdly huge 10.0. With no shortage of ammunition, here's why the Contrarian is confident of seeing Kauto Star in the winner's enclosure at Cheltenham...

Kauto Star is a Gold Cup legend
He may not hold the benchmark for the most Gold Cup wins, but Kauto Star is certain to go down as one of the all-time greats of the Cheltenham Festival's showpiece. He confirmed his place in history in 2009 by becoming the first to ever regain the Gold Cup after being dethroned, and did so in spectacular fashion with a 13-length romp.

He always bounces back
The feat of regaining the Gold Cup is just one in a long series of remarkable recoveries that have served to make the 11-year-old so popular and earned his supporters plenty of money. The French-bred horse has won a staggering six of his last seven races that have followed a setback, finishing second in the only one in which he wasn't first past the post during that period.

Imperial Commander isn't good enough to win twice
Imperial Commander may be the defending champion and 5.0 favourite, but have a look at the list of multi-time winners, such as Arkle and Best Mate, and most will agree they are among the finest chasers ever. Imperial Commander is nowhere near that level, as a record of only four victories in his last ten races confirms, and given that modern day icons Kauto Star and Denman both failed to achieve successive triumphs, it's a mistake to expect Imperial Commander to do so.

Don't fall for the Long Run hype
The King George VI Chase is sometimes seen as a strong Gold Cup indicator but besides four-time winner Kauto Star, only three of the horses to have won the race in the last 21 years have claimed the big one: See More Business (1999), the exceptional Best Mate (2002) and Kicking King (2005). Long Run, the 7.6 second favourite following his success this year at Kempton, has a long way to go before proving that he is in that class. His two prior outings at Cheltenham - on a hilly course that differs vastly and is far more challenging than the flatter one at Kempton - have produced two third-placed finishes. Another obstacle is that the last six-year-old to win was Mill House way back in 1963.

Two months is a long time
There are many reasons to avoid fussing over Kauto Star's underwhelming showing in the King George VI Chase, the main one being that as Paul Nicholls revealed on Betting.Betfair, he bled from his nostrils in the aftermath and likely bled during it, clearly affecting his run, and has since been diagnosed with a low-grade infection. Even so, without being in peak form, he took third place. The other major difference between last Saturday and March is that Kauto Star's favourite jockey Ruby Walsh will be back in the saddle after an absence with a broken leg. Tony McCoy steered the horse for the first time at Kempton and as owner Clive Smith said: "He's got a different style to Walsh and maybe that showed. It was his first ride on him. It's very hard to get on a horse like Kauto and ride to suit him."

It's not a race for favourites
Rather surprisingly given all the build-up and analysis that it attracts months in advance, the Gold Cup has only been won by the favourite six times in the last 20 years, while Kauto Star is the only horse in the last five years to have triumphed as the frontrunner, so there is no reason to be scared off by the fact that he is available at a much longer price than usual.

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