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January is a good time to be a selling club, and indeed a player on the move, as transfer-fees and contracts are invariably inflated for clubs desperate to sign the key player whose arrival could help them win a trophy or avoid relegation in the second half of the season. There have been successful winter moves, ­among them Patrice Evra to Manchester United, Branislav Ivanovic to Chelsea, Brede Hangeland to Fulham ­ but most took time to settle in their new surroundings.

Strikers tend to fare better at the other end of the table after January moves: Christophe Dugarry (Birmingham) and James Beattie (Stoke) helped their clubs stay up while Arsenal pair Emmanuel Adebayor and Andrei Arshavin used their first six months to settle in.

What all clubs want to avoid is the Asprilla factor: when Newcastle signed Faustino Asprilla from Parma in early 1996, they were nine points clear of Manchester United at the top of the table, but they ended up missing out and Asprilla's arrival was blamed.

The question being asked in Italy this week is if AC Milan have just had their Asprilla moment: Milan are top of the table and have just taken Antonio Cassano from Sampdoria following his fall-out with president Riccardo Garrone. For all Cassano's pleas that he is a changed man and his famous on-pitch morale-busting meltdowns are behind him, his behaviour at Samp was far from exemplary. New coach Massimiliano Allegri has already performed wonders to keep the egos in the dressing-room in check. ­How Cassano fits in alongside the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Robinho, Kevin-Prince Boateng and, at the moment, Ronaldinho, could determine Milan's Scudetto chances. Milan are currently 2.08 for the title and 1.84 to get past Spurs in the Champions League.

The other big striker who could be on the move is Edin Dzeko at Wolfsburg. The prolific Bosnian has been sending mixed messages this season: he reportedly wrote a letter to Manchester City asking them to sign him, but last week claimed he was happy to stay for the season. With the Wolves struggling in the Bundesliga and coach Steve McClaren under pressure, Dzeko could be packing his bags: and while City would be prepared to pay his transfer-fee, expected to be around £30m, in one instalment, other clubs like Juventus and Real Madrid would prefer a staggered deal.

City missed the chance to top the Premier League after losing 2-1 to Everton last week but they are in second place yet still 13.5 for the title and 1.35 to finish top four. With Adebayor and Roque Santa Cruz heading for the exit, coach Roberto Mancini might need someone to take the scoring burden off captain Carlos Tevez, who is second-top Premier League scorer with 12 goals and 4.6 to finish the season on top.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, are only two points behind Barcleona despite their 5-0 drubbing at the Nou Camp, which means a win at the Bernanbeu over Barcelona in April could prove decisive. Madrid are 2.8 for La Liga with Barcelona 1.56. Barcelona have already bought Ibrahim Afellay from PSV this winter, which could give some of their strikeforce a rest at key moments. Barca are 1.92 to beat Arsenal in Europe and 3.25 to win the Champions League, while Real are 1.97 to avenge last season's Lyon defeat and 5.3 to triumph at Wembley in May.

The rumour-mill will be in full swing before the transfer-window opens at the weekend: other players who have been linked with moves this month include Shay Given, Stephane Sessegnon, Conor Wickham, Robbie Keane, Romelu Lukaku, Kun Aguero, David Luiz, Gueida Fofana, Stephen Ireland, Oscar Cardozo and Hulk. Some might move on, some will stay at their clubs, but one of them could make a decisive impact in the second half of the season. Milan fans praying that Cassano will be the biggest bargain of the January sales will agree on one thing: he is certainly the riskiest.


By Ben Lyttleton

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