Betting.Betfair

Saturday was not a great day. It began when I woke up early, put on the telly, and saw the cricket score. Having written that Australia couldn't possibly take 20 wickets, and backed my belief with hard cash by laying the Aussies for the Perth Test, Mitchell Johnson had turned the whole Ashes series on its head. What's more, I'd broken one of my normal golden rules of gambling and not "gone green" when I had the opportunity 24 hours earlier.

Next I spent five hours stuck in snow on the M5. I was two miles from the next junction when I heard that Birmingham's game with Newcastle was off, and it took forever before I could get there and turn round to go back home again. The wait wasn't helped, as a boyhood West Ham fan, by listening to them struggling along at Blackburn.

I suppose a 1-1 draw was an ok result, and maybe they were unlucky because they hit the post, and Avram Grant keeps talking about the lovely football they played. But the bottom line is they will now be - well, bottom - on Christmas day and that means only one thing. They are going down.

Ever since Bryan Robson pulled off "The Great Escape" with West Brom in 2005, the old rule that the team which opened its presents on Christmas morning in 20th place being certainties for relegation seems to have been forgotten. Everybody since has talked bravely about Albion showing it's possible.

In fact in five seasons since, the team going into Boxing Day holding up the rest of the table has not only gone down but finished bottom. It happened to Portsmouth last year, and guess who was the boss? Avram Grant again. And don't even think about his attempts to blame that on the nine points deducted for going into administration. Add them back on, and Pompey would still have been two points below Hull and Burnley.

The Hammers' performance at Ewood seemed to be typical of the last two seasons. They have some smashing technical players, but when the pace of a game goes up there aren't enough of them who can shift gears to go with it. Scott Parker will have a bad back before too long if he keeps carrying the team on his own. Relegation battles are won by bravery, whether it's physical courage to make a tackle or mental strength to keep passing the ball under pressure, and there isn't enough of it in the Upton Park squad. Credit them for getting a point with a late Junior Stanislas equaliser, but it is wins they need now and they have only two all season. No wonder they are 1.65 to drop into the Championship.

Incidentally if Blackburn live up to their statement that they will take their time over replacing Sam Allardyce, then backing Steve Kean in the next manager market at 5.3 looks worth a punt. Remember that as per Betfair rules it pays if he is caretaker for ten matches. One down, nine to go - and the Christmas rush of fixtures means - weather permitting - he'd get there on February 12, in just eight weeks time.

Hammers' problems were shown up by the only other game played. Steve Bruce has put into his Sunderland team all the qualities that West Ham were mostly missing. They saw out a 1-0 win over Bolton with commitment and courage, summed up by a fantastic Craig Gordon save. Darren Bent, 3.9 to overhaul Andy Carroll as top English goalscorer, played on despite taking a heavy knock. Danny Welbeck got his fifth goal in six matches.

Sunderland are 4.9 to finish in the top six, and are also value at 6.4 to win the handicap league if Blackpool struggle in the second half of the season. They might also be worth a punt at 38.0 to win the FA Cup. By the way, for those who are old enough to remember, Gordon's performance was a flashback to Jim Montgomery's famous Wembley double save that denied Leeds in 1973.


By Ralph Ellis

Read more at betting.betfair.com