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When England coach Andy Flower and his selectors sit down to pick the starting XI for the first Test they better have a rubber handy! If a cricket team was made up of 12 players then Flower wouldn't have a problem. He has seven batsmen, a wicket keeper and four bowlers chomping at the bit and raring to go against an Australian side that appears to be wobbling.

No matter how hard Flower tries, he isn't going to be able to shoehorn the seventh batsman into the side which means that one player will miss out. Sadly, none of the seven are dual talented and able to keep wicket which means that Matt Prior is safe, as are the four bowlers who were rested for the game against Australia A.

Stuart Broad, James Anderson, Steve Finn and Graeme Swann are in the starting 11 along with Prior, meaning that only six places are up for grabs. Make that five because there's no way that England will go into this game without their skipper, Andrew Strauss, who will definitely be tossing the coin, opening the batting and leading from the front.

Only five places left with six batsmen desperate to play, Alastair Cook, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Eoin Morgan and Ian Bell. KP is no longer the first name on the team sheet and he's again the subject of controversy after Flower had to refute Shane Warne's suggestion that his former Hampshire team-mate has become an 'outcast' in the close knit English dressing room. It would be a major shock if Pietersen was to miss out and the same can be said about Paul Collingwood and Jonathan Trott who look to have cemented their places in the batting order.

Alastair Cook seems to pull out a big innings just as the axe is hovering and his hundred against South Australia will probably see him opening the batting with his skipper. That leaves two - Bell and Morgan and the buzz is it may well be Ian Bell who misses out and given his majestic 192 last week against Australia A, if he is the unlucky one then he has every right to feel aggrieved.

Man management seems to be Flower's forte as he certainly knows how to get the best out of his players. His skills will be tested to the full if he has to pull Ian Bell to one side and explain to him that last week's knock isn't going to be enough to secure participation in the first Test. "Sorry Belly, 192 just doesn't cut it. You've got to be able to kick on and convert 192 into a big double hundred." Nope, it doesn't work and Ian Bell will be left feeling that even his very best is not good enough to satisfy his bosses.

Whoever Flower picks will have to be right on their game because, despite all the hype surrounding England, we mustn't forget that Australia are still firm favourites despite drifting to 2.04 to win the series from a low of 1.46. There's been strong support for England, they've been backed in from a high of 5.0 and are currently available at 2.92 but they remain the underdog.

Australia, who are formidable at the Gabba, will be looking to make a fast start and Ricky Ponting will be desperate not to become the first Australian captain to lose three Ashes series since Billy Murdoch in 1890. There's no doubt that England are still up against it and must pick their strongest starting XI.

So come on then, who is it going to be, Bell or Morgan? Surely it has to be Ian Bell, he looked in spectacular nick last week and is vastly experienced. Big scores win Test matches and Bell has the temperament, technique and concentration needed to occupy the crease and keep the scoreboard ticking. Sadly, he never seems to be able to do it against Australia - oh dear, tell you what, "pass me that rubber!"

By Frank Gregan

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