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At the start of a premier league season the publicly stated aim of all newly promoted sides is survival; were they to be offered 17th place come May they would all gladly take it. But the early signs are that Newcastle, West Bromwich Albion and Blackpool may have grander designs given their current positions of fifth, 11th and 14th respectively.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool are still favourites for the drop at 1.79 having come up via the play offs and have drawn comparisons with Burnley, who last season took the same route to the top flight and also started well before disappearing through the relegation trap door. But there are differences. For one Holloway is sure to remain at the helm at Bloomfield road barring an extraordinary turn of events. Also, it's often said that home form is crucial for promoted sides, and Burnley's was strong with 26 of their 30 points coming at Turf Moor, but it wasn't enough to save them. Blackpool by contrast have already picked up nine points away from home as well as five in front of their own fans and their ability to win on the road could be invaluable.

Blackpool won't finish in the top four, six or 10 but for some value the handicap win could be the way forward. Odds of 4.9 at +52 points is tempting given that Blackpool have 14 already and we're not even a third of the way through the season.

West Brom have deservedly earned the reputation for being a yo-yo club in recent campaigns but they now look capable of shedding that moniker. A spectacular 3-2 win at Arsenal was followed up by a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford on their next away trip and in Peter Odemwingie manager Roberto DiMatteo seems to have found the goalscorer they have previously lacked in the top flight.

The 3.25 to crack the top 10 has some appeal but more tempting could be 3.35 for the Baggies to be the top midlands club. It's a wide open market and after 12 games there is no clear front runner with Aston Villa, Stoke, Birmingham and Wolverhampton Wanderers the other contenders. Villa are most fancied at the moment at 2.82 but that would seem to be based more on past success than current form.

Newcastle are flying in fifth place and there is a real sense of unity at St James' Park despite the hierarchy's bizarre reluctance to grant Chris Hughton a new contract. The players who took the club down and then back up again are taking responsibility with Kevin Nolan enjoying a new lease of life and Andy Carroll emerging as England's answer to Didier Drogba in some people's eyes; the 21-year-old catches the eye at 3.6 to emerge as the league's top English goalscorer.

Odds of 2.1 for a top 10 finish seems fair but 10.0 for the top six is distinctly more attractive. Newcastle's win at the Emirates, as West Brom's did before them, served notice that now more than ever the established order is under threat. Home form will need to be improved, as Wednesday's defeat to Blackburn Rovers demonstrated, but 6-0 and 5-1 wins against Aston Villa and Sunderland have shown that St James' Park could once again become the Toon Army stronghold of years gone by.


By Andrew Clarke

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