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England vs New Zealand on the rugby field is one of sport's more one-sided fixtures, typically found just beneath bullfighting for its consistency of outcome. England have lost eight straight against the All Blacks, yet the Contrarian has pencilled in this Saturday as the day that Martin Johnson's men topple the best team in the world for the first time in over seven years...

England are getting closer each year

The All Blacks have maintained their winning form against England in their last few skirmishes but the margins have gradually become less emphatic, with the 32-point loss three meetings ago reduced to 26 five months later. England then lost out by only 13 last November in a game that was level at the halfway point and in which the hosts restricted New Zealand to just one try for the first time since their last victory over them in 2003.


The hosts are carrying momentum for once...

For the first time in five years, England head into their autumn internationals on the updraft of a big win (so not counting the reserves' loss to the NZ Maoris), after an unexpected 21-20 triumph over Australia in Sydney. It was a massive result for morale as the Wallabies are ranked second in the world and it ended a winless run against them, but also because it was their first away success against a southern hemisphere country in seven years. It was a win notable both for England's intensity (All Blacks assistant Wayne Smith has admitted "if we're not up to engaging them physically we're going to get hammered") and their positive approach and they showed fighting qualities too, firstly in coming from behind and then to hold on in the second half.


...and have their winning team together

England's preparations for big matches are often undone by injuries, yet the side that lines up against New Zealand will only have one change from that which overcame Australia, and it's a positive one - Andrew Sheridan returns after a lengthy lay-off to replace Tim Payne at loose-head prop. It had looked like captain Lewis Moody would miss out after suffering a serious eye injury last month yet he has made a full recovery. Jonny Wilkinson is an unsurprising absentee, though he didn't start in Australia and coach Martin Johnson has attempted to turn his unavailability into a positive by warning his players that with no talisman to fall back on, they must all step up.


All Blacks losses come in pairs

Whereas England are on a high, New Zealand's last outing was a 26-24 loss to the Wallabies that will feel far fresher having occurred just last weekend. It was the All Blacks' first reverse since last September and as a team that aren't accustomed to being beaten, they often struggle to respond positively. That last loss against South Africa almost 14 months ago was their third in three games and four of their previous six defeats came in pairs. Their form hasn't been as imperious as it usually is prior to visiting, with none of their three victories since August coming by a margin of greater than ten points.


The Foden factor could come into play

Johnson has been criticised by some pundits for sticking with familiar faces for the autumn internationals and going primarily with experience, but they have a wildcard in Ben Foden, who despite having only made six appearances has shown enough promise to be picked out by New Zealand captain Richie McCaw as a potential game-changer. The full-back has been a major factor in his club Northampton Saints' impressive start to the season, gaining more ground than any other player in the Aviva Premiership (491 metres), while creating the joint-most clean breaks.


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