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West Coast Eagles
08 Dec 12 17:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 44,557 | Blogger: West Coast Eagles's blog
LA Clippers v Phoenix in the early afternoon game

but will put my focus on 2 games today, the earlier game between Charlotte V Spurs & Portland V Sacramento

Phoenix +10.5 handicap seems big for some reason...........may be interested in putting a tenner for interest
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Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:10 AM GMT
Man City are unbeaten 2 years at home .....Lay of United for me
Report Blake84 December 9, 2012 3:11 AM GMT
Laying city.
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:12 AM GMT
Like the look of goals but 1.80 is a bit short for me for overs 2.5
Report ;[p December 9, 2012 3:14 AM GMT
city are mugs but can defend, manure comming back from behind in every game almost,no draws yet in league so i think it will be draw or utd win
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:14 AM GMT
only 5 goals in the last 6 meetings at the Etihad Betfair has just informed me.
Report OHnewknees December 9, 2012 3:15 AM GMT
I've been to the last 4 seasons Derby's @ City. This will be like the others imo , bacon face will not go gung ho neither will Mancini. Under 2.5 a tactical game...
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:16 AM GMT
I can see 1-1 or maybe 2-1 City late goal.
Report ;[p December 9, 2012 3:16 AM GMT
ok greened on bulls

going sleep good luck guys, HappyHappy


..eh small lay of portalnd Excited
Report map December 9, 2012 3:17 AM GMT

Dec 8, 2012 -- 9:14PM, ;[p wrote:


city are mugs but can defend, manure comming back from behind in every game almost,no draws yet in league so i think it will be draw or utd win


im tempted by utd win at that price

Report map December 9, 2012 3:19 AM GMT
oh **** didnt realise kings started LOL
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:19 AM GMT
The basketball lexicon

Can you name the basketball phrase?

a) That's ok, I'll buy you a new woolly one next week.
b) Look, I know you've just come out of a relationship, but there's no need to react like that!
c) Chickens are not meant to be used in that way!
d) I know you were hungry, but youre not supposed to eat them that fast, you will get indigestion.
e) These mountain roads are tricky at this time of year
f) You'd be better off using Tipp-Ex, looks neater
g) Now they've got bullets in them, we can't eat them!
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:22 AM GMT
Sacramento 16-9 Portland
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:22 AM GMT
Batum off the court..........commentator '' we will see how long his night lasts'
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:23 AM GMT
all united wins from behind have come against mug opposition. I include Liverpool in that.
Report map December 9, 2012 3:24 AM GMT
ya
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:24 AM GMT
No-one wants to play my quiz :(
Report OHnewknees December 9, 2012 3:25 AM GMT
thank fcuk for that!
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:25 AM GMT
a lay of united and a back of the draw would be my bet i think.
Report map December 9, 2012 3:27 AM GMT
i didnt understand it S&A
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:28 AM GMT
ok
Report map December 9, 2012 3:28 AM GMT
il read it again, guess im too thick Sad
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:29 AM GMT
a) Misses jumper
b) Defensive rebound
c) Personal foul
d) 20 second timeout
e) Bad pass
f) Block out
g) Shooting foul
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:31 AM GMT
i like the first two
Report Blake84 December 9, 2012 3:31 AM GMT
A and D are funny.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:31 AM GMT
What do we think of overs/unders in the Sacramento game?
Report map December 9, 2012 3:32 AM GMT
i like b
Report map December 9, 2012 3:32 AM GMT
lol
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:32 AM GMT
I know the difference between foul and fowl, by the way :)
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:34 AM GMT
I think Portland win seems likely.
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:35 AM GMT
Greened out on Sacramento at evens
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:35 AM GMT
just going to watch rest of game
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:35 AM GMT
and enjoy
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:38 AM GMT
well my reverse logic seems to have paid off. Taking some green now. Happy
Report Blake84 December 9, 2012 3:38 AM GMT
Will lay the kings if they go odds on. They always have a very bad 5 or 10 minutes at some stage.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:39 AM GMT
18-30

10 years of stats

FTR

Home Win 10
Away Win 4

Pts

174
182
184
185
186
191
193
194
198
198
198
199
199
210
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:40 AM GMT
get in mavs. thought I'd lost that one after rockets came back from that early mavs lead.
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:41 AM GMT
QTR TIME: Portland 18-30 Sacramento
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:41 AM GMT
QTR TIME ODDS: Portland 2.10 v 1.90 Sacramento
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:42 AM GMT
Sacremanto on a 6-0 run in the 2nd qtr
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:42 AM GMT
*Portland
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 3:43 AM GMT
Portland 1.67 v 2.46 Sacramento
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:43 AM GMT

Dec 8, 2012 -- 9:39PM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:


18-3010 years of statsFTRHome Win 10Away Win 4Pts174182184185186191193194198198198199199210


sorry are you saying that 1st quarter scoreline has produced 10 home wins and 4 away wins over 10 years? interesting stats. Could you bring up the stats on a 12 point 1st quarter lead rather than a specific score?

Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:44 AM GMT
yes
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:44 AM GMT
what does that show?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:44 AM GMT
12 pt for away team

Home Win 7
Away Win 9
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:45 AM GMT
hmmm. interesting that shows a very different result
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:45 AM GMT
Yes, but scores can make a difference I think.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:46 AM GMT
I won't be betting until I know whether Portland have whittled away some of the deficit.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:46 AM GMT
why do you think that? surely the score will not effect the players psyche rather the defecit would.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:47 AM GMT
The starting players will have an effect on the score more than the difference though, the difference can be eradicated when the better players are on the court, whereas the score tells you how they are performing.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:48 AM GMT
That didnt make much sense, but you know what I mean.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:48 AM GMT
another thing...how come there have been 14 total games over 10 years with an 18-30 scoreline and only 16 games with a 12 point defecit? That doesn't add up.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:49 AM GMT
I had something else in the filter.

103 games with -12
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:50 AM GMT
right. and the result?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:50 AM GMT
27 H 64 A 12 OT
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:51 AM GMT
wow. So Sacramento value surely?
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:51 AM GMT
you'd surely not take the 18-30 stat over that one there?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:51 AM GMT
The 7-9 earlier was when the -12 had been reduced by 7-12 pts
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:52 AM GMT
I would, as it seems to be more profitable using the stats that way, but I would see what the HT score is first.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:53 AM GMT
7-12 point by HT i presume?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:53 AM GMT
yes
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:53 AM GMT
so effectively a lead of -5 or less for the away team, or equal scores.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:54 AM GMT
if it went -12 to a Portland lead..

Home Win 7
Away Win 3
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:56 AM GMT
ok. how did you put this systme together out of interest. Surely you must have to input into some programme which then can bring an answer to any question?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:56 AM GMT
just posted the quarter totals and results into a database
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 3:58 AM GMT
I think basketball is a good sport for that. The scores are more important than the teams and ten years of data is a useful amount.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 3:59 AM GMT
something I was thinking about the other day which would interest me. Does the number of home team wins when the home team is for example 5 down at HT exceed the number of wins for when they are 5 up at HT. I have a feeling it might. Be interested to see.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:02 AM GMT
281/405
122/319

The second number includes OT
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:02 AM GMT
so, no, more beneficial to be 5 up.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:04 AM GMT
yeh i thought so. So there's value there right away because you'll naturally get a better price on a team 5 up rather than 5 down at HT.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:04 AM GMT
they win 281 of 405 when theyre 5 up, so the % is better.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:06 AM GMT
oh i see. what about 2 up or 2 down? sorry last question. it's fascinating though.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:08 AM GMT
257/455
205/420
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:08 AM GMT
Not much difference
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:09 AM GMT
If you want to equate the odds like that a difference of 2 is ideal because if you plot them on a graph you'll see two similar graphs parallel to each other with a 2 pt gap between them.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:10 AM GMT
ok. That surprises me. I thought we would see more for when they are 2 down because they would come out harder in the 2nd half knowing they're losing.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:10 AM GMT
who's your money on in this match now?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:10 AM GMT
The average handicap should be 2 pts effectively, for the odds to be the same.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:11 AM GMT
I'm on less than 196.5 in this now.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:11 AM GMT
The quarter totals give

Unders 6
Overs 0
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:12 AM GMT
The HT score gives

Unders 9
Overs 1
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:12 AM GMT
So the odds seem worthwhile.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:12 AM GMT
i backed Kings pre-match even though my brain was telling me that Portland would win and were good value. I've taken some green when they were up by quite a bit. It's interesting how when you take this approach you can find success but it makes perfect sense really as this is why most people lose when they bet because they go with logic and results so often go against logic.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:13 AM GMT
so you took around 1.24 on that then?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? December 9, 2012 4:14 AM GMT
You expect the better players to improve as the game goes on, and the better players are usually with the low odds team, so logic says that the underdogs will be hauled in, and while that is correct for the 1st quarter, if the gap doesnt decrease by HT, then the odds are often wrong.
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:14 AM GMT
probably safe with that
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 4:17 AM GMT
anyway I'm gonna shoot off and hope to come back to a kings win. If not I've still got some green on Portland. GL with the unders.
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 4:18 AM GMT
HALF TIME: Portland 41-43 Sacramento
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 4:18 AM GMT
HALF TIME ODDS: Portland 1.52 V 2.88 Sacramento
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 4:29 AM GMT
Kings back out with their buffer again, Portland 47-57 Kings
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 5:08 AM GMT
portland been terrible this 2nd half
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 5:11 AM GMT
watching a bit of boxing as well
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 5:14 AM GMT
Turnovers: Portland 18-9 Sacramento
Report Maestro_71 December 9, 2012 5:16 AM GMT

Dec 8, 2012 -- 9:05PM, Maestro_71 wrote:


would someone tell me why despite the Kings being awful and thinking that Portland @ 1.42 was value I am now backing the Kings? Winning by going against logic. Let's give it a go.


Happy

Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 5:22 AM GMT
FULL TIME: Portland 80-99 Sacramento
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 5:22 AM GMT
Sacramento's away schedule: Portland, Dallas, Milwaukee then Oklahoma City...................thats a tough road schedule there
Report West Coast Eagles December 9, 2012 5:23 AM GMT
but that win will them the confidence they need for the next games
Report George W Bush Senior December 9, 2012 5:23 AM GMT
wow what a nite i made around $4000 in just one nite on 365. Good luck to everyone :)
Report Marin1977 December 9, 2012 5:46 AM GMT
Won 3 in a row today and then put all winnings on Portland... 0.0 Cry
Report Marin1977 December 9, 2012 5:46 AM GMT
Erm, even worse, won 4 in a row not 3
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