NBA 8/12/12/ Saturday

Man City are unbeaten 2 years at home .....Lay of United for me

Laying city.

Like the look of goals but 1.80 is a bit short for me for overs 2.5

city are mugs but can defend, manure comming back from behind in every game almost,no draws yet in league so i think it will be draw or utd win

only 5 goals in the last 6 meetings at the Etihad Betfair has just informed me.

I've been to the last 4 seasons Derby's @ City. This will be like the others imo , bacon face will not go gung ho neither will Mancini. Under 2.5 a tactical game...

I can see 1-1 or maybe 2-1 City late goal.

ok greened on bulls

going sleep good luck guys,


..eh small lay of portalnd

Dec 9, 2012 -- 3:14AM, ;[p wrote:

city are mugs but can defend, manure comming back from behind in every game almost,no draws yet in league so i think it will be draw or utd win

im tempted by utd win at that price

oh **** didnt realise kings started LOL

The basketball lexicon

Can you name the basketball phrase?

a) That's ok, I'll buy you a new woolly one next week.
b) Look, I know you've just come out of a relationship, but there's no need to react like that!
c) Chickens are not meant to be used in that way!
d) I know you were hungry, but youre not supposed to eat them that fast, you will get indigestion.
e) These mountain roads are tricky at this time of year
f) You'd be better off using Tipp-Ex, looks neater
g) Now they've got bullets in them, we can't eat them!

Sacramento 16-9 Portland

Batum off the court..........commentator '' we will see how long his night lasts'

all united wins from behind have come against mug opposition. I include Liverpool in that.

ya

No-one wants to play my quiz :(

thank fcuk for that!

a lay of united and a back of the draw would be my bet i think.

i didnt understand it S&A

ok

il read it again, guess im too thick

a) Misses jumper
b) Defensive rebound
c) Personal foul
d) 20 second timeout
e) Bad pass
f) Block out
g) Shooting foul

i like the first two

A and D are funny.

What do we think of overs/unders in the Sacramento game?

i like b

lol

I know the difference between foul and fowl, by the way :)

I think Portland win seems likely.

Greened out on Sacramento at evens

just going to watch rest of game

and enjoy

well my reverse logic seems to have paid off. Taking some green now.

Will lay the kings if they go odds on. They always have a very bad 5 or 10 minutes at some stage.

18-30

10 years of stats

FTR

Home Win 10
Away Win 4

Pts

174
182
184
185
186
191
193
194
198
198
198
199
199
210

get in mavs. thought I'd lost that one after rockets came back from that early mavs lead.

QTR TIME: Portland 18-30 Sacramento

QTR TIME ODDS: Portland 2.10 v 1.90 Sacramento

Sacremanto on a 6-0 run in the 2nd qtr

*Portland

Portland 1.67 v 2.46 Sacramento

Dec 9, 2012 -- 3:39AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

18-3010 years of statsFTRHome Win 10Away Win 4Pts174182184185186191193194198198198199199210

sorry are you saying that 1st quarter scoreline has produced 10 home wins and 4 away wins over 10 years? interesting stats. Could you bring up the stats on a 12 point 1st quarter lead rather than a specific score?

yes

what does that show?

12 pt for away team

Home Win 7
Away Win 9

hmmm. interesting that shows a very different result

Yes, but scores can make a difference I think.

I won't be betting until I know whether Portland have whittled away some of the deficit.

why do you think that? surely the score will not effect the players psyche rather the defecit would.

The starting players will have an effect on the score more than the difference though, the difference can be eradicated when the better players are on the court, whereas the score tells you how they are performing.

That didnt make much sense, but you know what I mean.

another thing...how come there have been 14 total games over 10 years with an 18-30 scoreline and only 16 games with a 12 point defecit? That doesn't add up.

I had something else in the filter.

103 games with -12

right. and the result?

27 H 64 A 12 OT

wow. So Sacramento value surely?

you'd surely not take the 18-30 stat over that one there?

The 7-9 earlier was when the -12 had been reduced by 7-12 pts

I would, as it seems to be more profitable using the stats that way, but I would see what the HT score is first.

7-12 point by HT i presume?

yes

so effectively a lead of -5 or less for the away team, or equal scores.

if it went -12 to a Portland lead..

Home Win 7
Away Win 3

ok. how did you put this systme together out of interest. Surely you must have to input into some programme which then can bring an answer to any question?

just posted the quarter totals and results into a database

I think basketball is a good sport for that. The scores are more important than the teams and ten years of data is a useful amount.

something I was thinking about the other day which would interest me. Does the number of home team wins when the home team is for example 5 down at HT exceed the number of wins for when they are 5 up at HT. I have a feeling it might. Be interested to see.

281/405
122/319

The second number includes OT

so, no, more beneficial to be 5 up.

yeh i thought so. So there's value there right away because you'll naturally get a better price on a team 5 up rather than 5 down at HT.

they win 281 of 405 when theyre 5 up, so the % is better.

oh i see. what about 2 up or 2 down? sorry last question. it's fascinating though.

257/455
205/420

Not much difference

If you want to equate the odds like that a difference of 2 is ideal because if you plot them on a graph you'll see two similar graphs parallel to each other with a 2 pt gap between them.

ok. That surprises me. I thought we would see more for when they are 2 down because they would come out harder in the 2nd half knowing they're losing.

who's your money on in this match now?

The average handicap should be 2 pts effectively, for the odds to be the same.

I'm on less than 196.5 in this now.

The quarter totals give

Unders 6
Overs 0

The HT score gives

Unders 9
Overs 1

So the odds seem worthwhile.

i backed Kings pre-match even though my brain was telling me that Portland would win and were good value. I've taken some green when they were up by quite a bit. It's interesting how when you take this approach you can find success but it makes perfect sense really as this is why most people lose when they bet because they go with logic and results so often go against logic.

so you took around 1.24 on that then?

You expect the better players to improve as the game goes on, and the better players are usually with the low odds team, so logic says that the underdogs will be hauled in, and while that is correct for the 1st quarter, if the gap doesnt decrease by HT, then the odds are often wrong.

probably safe with that

anyway I'm gonna shoot off and hope to come back to a kings win. If not I've still got some green on Portland. GL with the unders.

HALF TIME: Portland 41-43 Sacramento

HALF TIME ODDS: Portland 1.52 V 2.88 Sacramento

Kings back out with their buffer again, Portland 47-57 Kings

portland been terrible this 2nd half

watching a bit of boxing as well

Turnovers: Portland 18-9 Sacramento

Dec 9, 2012 -- 3:05AM, Maestro_71 wrote:

would someone tell me why despite the Kings being awful and thinking that Portland @ 1.42 was value I am now backing the Kings? Winning by going against logic. Let's give it a go.

FULL TIME: Portland 80-99 Sacramento

Sacramento's away schedule: Portland, Dallas, Milwaukee then Oklahoma City...................thats a tough road schedule there

but that win will them the confidence they need for the next games

wow what a nite i made around $4000 in just one nite on 365. Good luck to everyone :)

Won 3 in a row today and then put all winnings on Portland... 0.0

Erm, even worse, won 4 in a row not 3