Or, I am wrong?  What am I missing?  People are trying to get onto Srikandi on here.  859 already on her to win the Stradbroke at odds between 5.5 and 6.6.


Based on last run, probably her best so far.

She won over 1350 in 1:18.40 coming home in 34.14.

The 2yo G2 race which immediately followed was won in 1:18.75, coming home in 35.37.

They hit the 750m mark at 43.38 vs 44.26.  So Srikandi was ~6.2 lengths behind with 600 to go.  Beat them by 8.6 lengths over the last 600 to win that race by ~2.45 lengths.  Against the 2yos carrying the same weight.

Comparing with the older horses.
Doomben 10,000 same distance, 1:17.93 coming home in 34.33.
Hit the 750 mark at 43.6 seconds, or around 5.88 lengths in front of Srikandi, and ended around 3.3 lengths in front of her placing her around 8th in that race.


Now she ran a week before on the same day as the Fred Best that will make up most of the field in the Guineas, but over a different distance.

But if you go back 2 weeks where the same runners ran over the same distance.

Srikandi ran 1:13.51 coming home in 35.83.
Dothraki ran 1:13.36 coming home in 37.68.

Dothraki wins that race by a length, and thought the job was done at the 100 metres pulling up losing around 3 lengths.
Srikandi went the first 600 in 37.68  vs
Dothraki going the first 600 in 35.88.

So with 600 to go, Dothraki was around 14.4 lengths in front.  Srikandi was entitled to take 13.4 lengths off in the last 600 and was entitled to kick without being caught but at the same time, Dothraki pulled up for 100 metres, running through to the line would have been around 5 lengths in front on time.




Now I completely understand that she is winning easy, and said to have a magical kick, but aren't back markers supposed to have a good kick because they have conserved more energy by running slower than those in front of them?
I completely understand that she is seen to be winning easy, so assumed to have a few extra lengths, and would well benefit from the handicap conditions of the Stradbroke.
I also understand that she is a leading horse as shown in her races, but a direct comparison to the winner of a race that will hold a lot of the same horses, shows the time she was leading, was around 14.4 lengths behind at the halfway point.

On direct form without looking at times, you would think that this would be a direct comparison with Bullet Train being entered into a race and Frankel being the direct beneficiary, where Srikandi would lead them up to the turn giving Dothraki the perfect sit which he has been craving since day 1 and a horse to go bang see you later with 200 to go.

But on times, you would have to question if this horse that likes to lead, will even be able to be near the front, and if she does lead, will we see any sort of kick knowing she will be running 8 lengths quicker over the first half of the race as she has been?
And if she runs the same pattern of race based on time, will she get a clear run to even run a final 600 sectional dodging and weaving through the best part of the whole field?
And knowing that she still is running slower than not only the 3yos that she is about to come up against, but also the older horses in the Stradbroke, how in fcuk could she be getting backed at such ridiculous odds?

Am I mistaken in thinking that she has to win to even be able to be in the field of the Stradbroke?

Is this a sign that she is going to be very short odds on for the Guineas?  Would people really back her at sub 3.00 in the Guineas, let alone around 1.50?  And if she is starting at any higher than 1.50, are we to believe that the winner of the Stradbroke is most likely coming from the 3yo crop?

This is one of those cases where I am so busy scratching my head to find the angle that I have missed with this horse, that I am yet to lay her.  I can't for the life of me understand how she is anywhere near those odds, let alone watching people happy to back at that price.


So the question, is what have I missed?  It must be something very big and obvious.  Right?


And I know, talking about his .01% share again, but I don't give a fcuk.  This is the biggest race of his life, and this horse Srikandi is apparantly his main obstacle, so I am happy to ask the questions.  If you don't want to read it and don't care, then simply close the thread and move on.

But somebody must have an answer, or opinion, or at least information that I have overlooked?

3yo filly even. 

But I am right in thinking taking 5.50-6.00 about Srikandi now is the equivalent of taking it in a 2 leg multi to both win the Guineas against the likes of Dothraki/Havana/Safeguard/Hucklebuck/Costa Viva, into beating in the second leg of the multi Rebel Dane/Spirit Of Boom/Catkins/Red Tracer/Knoydart.

Basically looking at odds of say 2.00 into 3.00 or 1.50 into 4.00, or 4.00 into 1.50, etc etc etc etc.
Right?

Pickabee.  Won 2 F+M 75k races in QLD before being beaten by 8 lengths by Red Tracer.  Then beaten 3.3 lengths against Srikandi?  A 4.5 length worse result than when Red Tracer beat her?  First up, yet the preceding campaign saw her worst result first up before improving up to getting flogged by Red Tracer.  Right?

Rebel Dane as you pointed out.  Coming off genuine group 1 races with form around Buffering/Lucky Nine/Lankan Rupee who he got beaten by 2 lengths, against the apparant best sprinter in the world.

Yet not only is she favourite against this horse, but she has to step up in class in a race she needs to win to even get a start, which will be her 3rd start in 3 weeks, 4th in 5 weeks, to then run in her 4th in 4 weeks and 5th run in 6 weeks.

Now the trainer comes out and says that her race was easier than she would have had it at training on the Tuesday so why not run her again?  Is that because she is so much better, or because she is benefitting from races where she got away with murder up front running ridiculously slow times, and kicked first and was unable to be caught in races which were effectively a rolling start 600 metre race where she started 2 lengths in front of the field?

She has to win this week right to even get a start in the Stradbroke?  I am at least right there?

yeah we can't and won't know what she is or has (Sri) ... until she races at the higher grade ... it is the only yardstick

but she is definately a ... rising 4yo mare ... 3yo makes her sound like a baby lol

just 9 weeks to go discounting any of their foaling dates

and ... dothraki a rising 4yo entire also .. hard for me to look at him and think he's still an immature 3yo colt

ok wow .. cheers chante .. interesting race

  no probs

Great commentary.

Re: any prices (odds) .....must be looked at in context of the market percentages......havent looked but guess is that its probably at 150 % (.....just looked ...betfair antepost 192%)...so looks a lay proposition at this point just based on that thought.....

Probably worth laying at 5's and backing at 6.5 / 7

She will have to be ridden for speed to stay out of the way of the pushing, bumping, eye gauching, hair pulling, groin kicking, rough and tumble of some of these .......who have been and done it at this elite level....

Rising 4 year old or not she hasnt been there and its not like she is the size Miss Finland was at this stage of development so   IMO she may be able to do using speed of foot and light weight advantage only

i'm not sure of the ballot clauses BJ but there are generally a few that fall away after this weekend's meeting .. and one (or two) that get a leg up from their wins - who knows

i'm working around sri also - but 3yo fillies (yes rising 4 definately) have a record in the past decade tho she is unlike either of them in that they BOTH started in the 10,000 giving them experience against the class & age as you & henry have mentioned

she is no Private Steer (according to boss) who won in 2003 .. and a different style to La Montagna who won in 2006 .. but she makes the race interesting as she is bred to run the trip strongly probably out to a mile later .. so her performances against her own age were simply that she was a different level to them

it's a lottery race ... always has been ... and who gets the best run under the circumstances usually wins ... that is all ... no more no less

I thought it was a case of prizemoney.
But if you look at Srikandi vs Dothraki.
Dothraki 360k prizemoney vs
Srikandi 316k prizemoney

Dothraki 1 G3 win, 1 listed
Srikandi 1 G3 win, 2 listed.

Srikandi above Dothraki in the ballot.


Srikandi is above your bloke simply because she has a higher BM figure than him

Small quin with sense of play

Maybe village kid is in charge of the order of entry

Doesn't mean much

maybe they just don't like you BJ

Maybe try here for clarification BJT


Handicapping/Grading

Thoroughbred:    (07) 3869 9726    (07) 3269 6043    racing@racingqueensland.com.au

Just to find out how H/buck is aheaD OF YOUR BLOKE IN THE BALLOT

But yeah, strange that Dothraki is ahead of Hucklebuck in the ballot for this race, but Hucklebuck is ahead in the ballot for the Stradbroke...  Makes little sense to me.

MELBOURNE May 28 2014

Phillip Stokes is facing a dilemma over whether to run Hucklebuck in Saturday's Queensland Guineas or save him for the Stradbroke Handicap.

Hucklebuck has been paid up for the Group Two Queensland Guineas (1400m) but after the release of first acceptances for Saturday week's Stradbroke on Wednesday, Hucklebuck is safely in the field at number 14 in the ballot.

Stokes said he had a bit to think about given he initially figured Hucklebuck would have to run in the Guineas and win to get into the Stradbroke field.

Hucklebuck has also drawn barrier 15 for Saturday's Eagle Farm race which has a capacity field of 18 plus five emergencies.

He would come into gate 11 if the reserves don't start.

"He's got a run in the Stradbroke so do we run on Saturday and hope we get in (from the barrier draw), or just scratch him and go to the Stradbroke? I'm still thinking about that," Stokes said.

Stokes will speak with Hucklebuck's owner and study a speed map for the Guineas before deciding whether the gelding runs in the $350,000 race against his own age.

Hucklebuck raced keenly when he resumed from a let-up in the Group Three Fred Best Classic (1350m) on May 17 at Doomben, finishing fourth after leading.

He is unbeaten in two second-up starts including a 1-1/4 length success in the Group Three C S Hayes Stakes (1400m) at Flemington in February.

Stokes said Hucklebuck had taken good improvement out of his first run in Brisbane.




"We're happy with the horse," Stokes said.

"He's done well since his first-up run and his second-up record is very good."