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By:

trotman When: 01 May 14 03:56

Josh-T

I have to admit many thought that when iForm was launched - I got congrats from many old mates - but it sadly was not me who they approached to start that service.

I'd have to say that his stuff has improved nicely over the time he has done this tricky task - and now provides a very solid product - over far more meetings than I could have managed back in the day.

Cheers

By:

Castiron When: 01 May 14 04:24

BHLL

I would have to say, knowing a horse's gate speed and where it should be in the run, is just about the most important factor in doing trot form.

Personally, I give every horse a gate speed rating.

By:

Aussie Driver When: 01 May 14 05:12

I'm really surprised to hear some learned judges here state that speed maps are not important. I believe that more than any other code, mapping the race correctly is clearly the most important aspect of devising an assessment. More so now with sprint lanes everywhere. I place a huge amount of emphasis on it

By:

BJT When: 01 May 14 06:31

You don't need to be quick out of the gates to lead. You just need the one that is to be on your horse and hand up the lead to him by pulling yourself and the field back so he can get it easy.

Has nothing to do with speed maps, and everything to to do with which one they have their money on.

By:

littlegypt When: 02 May 14 00:01

AD

just think there is a lot of hard work undone when an imbecile on a $50 chance decides to keep lead or a favoured runner gallops out then you have team driving. I may try and and find a leader or see if there is any d/seat horse in race but it ends at that-respect your opinion though and if it works for you well done.

By:

Castiron When: 02 May 14 00:54

littlegypt

Can I assume from your comments, that you don't frame your own market ?

By:

nickw When: 02 May 14 01:00

BJT isnt a speed map a guide to do with how the they settle in run
would think that has a lot to do with gate speed and draws

AD i dont think anybody was saying they dont think they are important just that they have become a little harder to predict

By:

Lordship When: 02 May 14 01:22

Certain drivers have the ability to get horses off the car quicker than some others. Then there are those drivers who are just prone to keep attacking. One of Castiron's favorites in that respect was Stanley Banham.

By:

Castiron When: 02 May 14 01:34

Thanks, Lordship, that was a lifetime ago.

By:

Lordship When: 02 May 14 01:41

Castiron,,

It was a lifetime ago. Then came your perilous stage. Long before you bought new suits for the Adelaide Cup.

By:

Aussie Driver When: 02 May 14 02:49

Littlegypt, I take the point that they can quickly go out the window if something 'abnormal' occurs, but race to race it governs results, especially those who take a lot of multiple bets which I do. If you could bet 400 metres after the start of every race you would be in Packer's league. That is really where the key part of the battle lies. And if you are producing a market, the probably of where a horse may end up is imperative

By:

trotman When: 02 May 14 03:03

Have a crack at the IN PLAY Harness boys & girls --- the more players the better.

It doesn't have to be one way traffic either -- there could be plenty of punters who back a leader pre post, and are happy to take insurance at a shorter price.

You'll never know if you don't have a go :-)

By:

littlegypt When: 02 May 14 05:43

castiron

I only bet what I perceive as value if a horse is overs i'll back it-I have an idea of lowest price I wish to take but to answer your question no I don't set a market pre-race

By:

BJT When: 02 May 14 05:53

May 2, 2014 -- 1:00AM, nickw wrote:

BJT isnt a speed map a guide to do with how the they settle in runwould think that has a lot to do with gate speed and drawsAD i dont think anybody was saying they dont think they are important just that they have become a little harder to predict

Yes it is, but with the trots, for the most part being mickey mouse races, it has more to do with the market than anything else. A typical speed map is about tactically where a horse will end up in an attempt to win a race.
In the trots however, all that goes out the window, and you are looking at where they are going to put themselves to lose it.

Take R8 Bathurst 12th March for example, which has been documented on here.

MAYIHAVEABISCUIT was second favourite, at 3.00.
KEEP ON MOVING was third pick at about 7.50.

By the time the race was about to start, the odds had swapped.

You don't have to be a genius to do the "speed map" for this race. Keep On Moving was going to lead, whether it jumped the gates, galloped at the start, or got run over by the mobile.

MAYIHAVEABISCUIT driven out to hit the front, on a track with no sprint land I believe, pulls back and slows down the field so KEEP ON MOVING could run easily to the lead doing no work.
KEEP ON MOVING wins the race as MAYIHAVEABISCUIT "couldn't get out"....

So while yes, you are technically correct, you aren't doing a speed map on the horses, you are doing a speed map on the drivers. And unless you know them and have the information that they have, the only way you can do that is by watching the market.

Now if you did the speed map for this, a 1730 metre sprint, you would have had MIHAB leading, with KOM either in the death, or in the one one, and you would have it for the trip, as if both of them were trying to win, that is where they would have ended up.
There is no speed map in the world that would see MIHAB from gate 5 stuck behind the leader a few hundred metres after the start, because if you have the speed to cross, as 3rd fav, from gate 5, in a 1730 metre race, when there is no sprint lane, you don't give up the lead for fcuking anything.

Your "speed map" for the trots, at least in most races which are obviously worth pennies, comes from working out which one the drivers have their money on.

From the Gaths and Mannings, to O'shea and Turnbulls, to the Barkers of old, the list goes on and on.

When the drivers are ballsy enough to tell you to your face "Don't waste your money betting today, it isn't your turn", and races are filled with drivers that are either related, have kids together, married, slept together, whatever, you know you are on a hiding to nothing relying on speed maps based on form.

See a horse drift from 1.20 to 1.80, you are looking for 2 things. Either the driver is going to yank it back onto the fence back in the pack, or a 50/1 shot attacking it for a lap and them both dropping out to finish at the back.

By:

nickw When: 02 May 14 06:34

ok.

By:

Village Kid When: 03 May 14 08:15

obviously you have to know the horses with gate speed, those who attack, those who ping out and hand up etc, that's called doing your homework
but you're at the mercy of drivers who barely have a high school education so who knows what they will do half the time
but to actually sit down and take the time to try to map where every horse ends up, waste of time IMO
anyway what would I know? it's not like I've made a living from punting since way before Betfair kicked off, roflmao
we are truly blessed here to have such all knowing selfproclaimed geniuses such as BJT to guide the less fortunate

By:

Village Kid When: 03 May 14 08:17

P.S. thank you BESOTTED..............BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

By:

uncleee When: 03 May 14 08:26

The worst thing is that most harness racing participants don't believe in speed maps because things change every now and again... The other 8/10 times the map is predictable. This is why so many don't like COT rules, because they think they are giving away the speed map to drivers who don't do form

By:

BJT When: 03 May 14 12:56

May 3, 2014 -- 8:15AM, Village Kid wrote:

obviously you have to know the horses with gate speed, those who attack, those who ping out and hand up etc, that's called doing your homeworkbut you're at the mercy of drivers who barely have a high school education so who knows what they will do half the timebut to actually sit down and take the time to try to map where every horse ends up, waste of time IMOanyway what would I know? it's not like I've made a living from punting since way before Betfair kicked off, roflmao we are truly blessed here to have such all knowing selfproclaimed geniuses such as BJT to guide the less fortunate

Maybe if you returned your book to the Maroochydore Library, we could all have a chance.

Either way, you just backed up exactly what I said, so not sure why you are trying to bag me when you have the same opinion.

By:

BJT When: 03 May 14 13:02

And seriously, you keep going on about making money gambling before Betfair came along. In my view, that simply makes you an old prick. I was barely even legal to bet when Betfair came on the scene...

Have a good night you lovely man...