THE ART OF PUNTING ---------- ON RACEHORSES

well done JRH you've exposed BJT as the clueless big noter that he is.....has no idea of the concept of "bet less bet bigger", quality beats quantity every time.
He's here all day and night eking out a meagre living to supplement his centrelink payments.....and probably at it 7 days a week.....what a life!
just check the raceday thread and he's still here going on the night trots backing someone's tip, how desperate! lomfao
can't get his head around the fact that one big punch beats 100 girly slaps and goes on and on with his war and peace posts of how it's done.....what a w@nker!!!
bit like the bloke who goes to the gym for 2 hours a day and does 10km runs cos he's never heard of interval training, clueless but always good for a laugh

A lot of statements there that you can't back up...  Not like you to talk out your ass... 

Do you actually post on any other threads, or just post to try and show off what a happy life you lead?

Life must be grand if this is all you have to do with your time, trying to abuse others.

Hope things improve for you.

This thread started as a genuine attempt by a poster to get insights into how others,presumably those who had found some winning ways,made their selections & investments.If the thread would have continued in the right spirit we all might have found some benefit.But no,the petty minded with nothing to do found it & attacked like white ants-Now the thread gets ignored [rightfully !]-Wasted opportunity for a lot of punters.

Yes, because punters are a strange bunch really.  Very rare you will find a decent forum, as egos get in the way.  People that think they have found the holy grail can't bare to think that others have found different ways.

The simple fact is, the art of punting on the horses, doesn't need to be any different than betting on anything else in the world.

Poker, you bet when it is in your favour.  Either it is already in your favour, or you predict the price (payout) will be worth it by betting on it now.

The obvious one though, is Blackjack.  Very good card counters, playing perfect strategy, are able to gain a .5-1% edge over the casino.  That is it.  Less than 1%.  Yet they have teams of players, some playing losing BJ for hours til they find a deck in their favour, when they hit it hard, with a smaller than 1% advantage.
Yet there isn't a private casino in the world that isn't watching out for these players. 

The whole principle with poker, and blackjack, is when it is in your favour, bet as often as possible, and turnover as much money as possible.

Do you think The Computer Group watched videos of every game, went to training daily to study form?  No, they had a stats based computer model, based on mathematical equations and a program that simply gave them a number.  Then, they bet around that number, on anything and everything.

Do you think a card counter waits for a +20 count, and then aims to have 1 bet?  Or does he bet at every possible opportunity he can with a count in that region?  Does he need to know what the dealer had for breakfast?  Does he need the videos of the dealer in action to form an opinion?  No, he simply needs to know the maths involved.

The most successful gambling coups in history have all shared the common theme, of statistical maths finding an edge and exploiting it.
I am yet to see a gambling story written about a guy who spends 50 hours a week studying videos, trials, training, to have a bet a day, or target a meeting every week or fortnight.

Show me a gambler using maths to base his opinion on gambling, and I will show you somebody that could bet on horses/dogs/sports/poker/blackjack.
Show me a guy that bets on Albion Park trots and spends his life studying the horses that race there, and I will show you somebody that wouldn't know how to place a bet on anything else.

Can imagine it now.  VK and Puffinstuff telling Michael Kent he was wasting his time and should get a real job because using a computer to model his betting could never work.  He needed to study the form and aim to have 1 quality bet a day... 


Maths is universal and will stand the test of time.  What "Rusty Corn" did on the training track 3 days ago, will be irrelevant inside a week.  Learn the maths, you know it forever.  Learn the form, you are irrelevant in a month.

So instead of listening to the "if you don't spend 50 hours a week studying the form, you are wasting your time" advice, know that if you bet smart, and use whatever knowledge you have of the form, get the best price you can, and don't over commit your money to any one bet, then you will be much better off than quitting your job to study form full time..... 

There seems to 80's logic in the "art of punting" article.(sorry)

Large percentage of races are simply "gambling fodder' ...

The odds are determined by bots setting the odds.

Trainers and other manipulators know that a true betfair market is 100 per cent and therefore the smaller odds of the ones with a pie in their belly or vaseline in their eye (dishlickers that run off the track).....increase the odds with the true triers.

So simple .....


What "Rust Corn" did on the training track 3 days ago, will be irrelevant except to suck in the money when the bots are programmed to look like old style betting activity.......alot of the huge pools are simply these bots buy sell buy sell down the price..............

Because of the very extensive use of bots .....most betting activities are just illusions or misdirections from the real intentions of the players (trainers etc)

Absolutely nailed it BJT.The Internet has given us a new way to bet & made available vast sets of data not previously accessible to the smaller punter.While the source has changed,the Mathematics has not.First rule of any gambling pursuit is to record your bets & always know your Profit [or Loss] on turnover & be prepared to try a different approach if you aren't getting a satisfactory profit.I just hope contributions to this thread give punters something to ponder & help them to do better.I like to read anyone's contribution that suggests a different direction to my own.I know I can do better & anyone out there with something meaningful ,please consider sharing it.

Mar 18, 2014 -- 6:58AM, henryluca wrote:

There seems to 80's logic in the "art of punting" article.(sorry)Large percentage of races are simply "gambling fodder' ...The odds are determined by bots setting the odds. Trainers and other manipulators know that a true betfair market is 100 per cent and therefore the smaller odds of the ones with a pie in their belly or vaseline in their eye (dishlickers that run off the track).....increase the odds with the true triers.So simple .....What "Rust Corn" did on the training track 3 days ago, will be irrelevant except to suck in the money when the bots are programmed to look like old style betting activity.......alot of the huge pools are simply these bots buy sell buy sell down the price..............Because of the very extensive use of bots .....most betting activities are just illusions or misdirections from the real intentions of the players (trainers etc)

And yet they create a 100% market on average where long term they expose the true odds of the runners in the race.

Bots aren't setting the market, they are trying to take advantage of inefficiencies in it.  Most bots are as uncomplicated as getting to the front of the queue up until it gets within a certain percentage of bet365 odds on all runners.


Don Johnson, who reportedly took 15 million off the casinos playing Blackjack :
"I don't think they will let me play anymore," he said of the Atlantic City casinos. "But it's not going to change my life. If I don't play blackjack, I'll just go to the horse races."

You can be damn sure he isn't implying that he is about to take up watching the videos, trials, diet patterns of the horses at Albion Park..... 



Scenario.
Harness race.  About 8-10 horses in it. 
Harry has been keeping an eye on this local scene for the last 3 months, and seen them all run many times.  He has targetted this race, and spent the preceding week studying the videos, time at the track, and framed his market.
He comes out with a bet on number 8 at around 3.50.

The day comes, and it opens up at 3.00 favourite.  He waits around waiting to get a bet on it at best odds.  Sits his bet in at 4.50 on BF just in case he can get a spike.
His bet is taken on the way out to 7.50.

Nigel on the other hand, put the market up 5 minutes before the race. Goes through, takes note of the odds, and notices that half the field are trained by one family, and they are all driving in the race.  He recognises the names from previous rorts.
He notices this favourite, drifting hard, and another of their horses coming in from 7.00.  He gets on at 5.00, and continues to watch it come into 3.00.

The race starts, and the drifter finds an easy lead, and then hands up to the well backed runner, who goes on to win the race, as the drifter can't get out after giving up the lead.


Now Harry had an informed bet, and got 4.50 about something he thought should have been 3.50.  He had 100s of hours of experience with the horses in that race, and 50 hours study to find his bet.

Nigel, backed the winner, after 2 minutes of watching the market, and got 5.00 about something that started 3.00.

Whos time was better spent, and which of these is possible to the average punter, who normally works all week, and simply throws money around on weekends?

Hmmmmmm, some really interesting " logic " , way outside my normal thought patterns. I like that.

No problem with conflicting views either....more than one way to skin a cat ...especially for pro's

I'd like to note my " doing SOME form" reference was aimed at those in my bracket...recreational punters.

Keep em coming.....you too MP

On Melbourne Cup Day 1967, Big Bill had decided that Red Handed would beat the four to one joint favourite, General Command. And he was sure that Ysmael would come for him in the Flemington ring. I know he was going to back Red Handed in the Cup. And, it was fours a figure - fours General Command and Red Handed are the two favourites. I saw him coming  out of the corner of my eye, and with that I turned around and I looked at him. I looked him straight in the face, he stopped in his tracks it was a crowded day. I turned to the board and I went nine to two Red Handed." - Bill Waterhouse

Blatantly, he was offering The Babe better odds on Red Handed. Taunting him to wonder why.

"Calculated. And I knew he'd be suspicious. He came straight to me and he said, two hundred thousand and fifty thousand General Command." - Bill Waterhouse

Roy Higgins duly rode the Bart Cummings' trained Red Handed to victory. General Command, came in sixth.

Big Bill....decided?

Offered half a point "overs" in a huge ring ....on a Melbourne Cup ...and he changed his mind for a 10?$million bet in todays money

Someone's takin the pisss, methinks

one half point alone equated to $125 000.....In 1967 that cold buy you alot of chocies

rustcorn   had a sliver of straw up its clacker the vasa on its eye was bilateral damage

there is currently one person viewing this thread   guess that's moi

Check out CrowForm on twitter if you want to see the art of punting

big bill     tipping that storys right on song        hope your going stong big fella       in those days us bagmen had a rail to keep the punters back          health and safety in the work place   definetly has an 80s feel

crow form on twitter    betangel    so much to see      so little time       that damn biological clocks doing the sectionals

What's going on here then?

What is a collective of gooses called? Is it a giggle...of gooses?

Shoo...go on....shoo!

ikea have 20 %  OFF KITCHENS THIS WEEKEND   NEW kitchen coming up              any danger of a chicken dinner

good story on BIl there HL

mark read used to do the same in sydney on the melb races

eased 'his' pick 4/1 to 9/2 ... watched the other bookies foolow suit

then jumped off his stand and snapped up the 9/2 on offer

i had my own figures and was only playing sydney in those days so got none out of it watching him on the 10x50's

but mark gave me a laugh

winners are grinners         especially when they find a chicken dinner

whats good for the goose   is good for the gander

red meat occasionally is not bad also

and remember .. cows lie down in the rain ... to keep each udder dry

Play the Overs.
Plenty of Dutching.
Great money management.

You **** have got no idea

Agree with Love-Joy

Agree with OP also.......He has Noooooooo Cluuuuue and the comady crew.....please stick to something you know nothing about

Sorry wrong thread....i think

Dickhead

OOOOhhhhh that hurts 

lol

Rocklea trots stories anyone .....once gave serious thoughts to being a bagman there  way way back.                                                       Very strong ring in its day

Thebas...10x50 's would never go to track without...even now .....remember Eagle Farm having designated bookies area and bookies would  call odds "in play" .

eagle farm stories  under that low grand stand    no reception  illegal or otherwise   when ever                                            10 by 50     karl ziess              mastiff vs tins      uk racing         mastiffs sing like a bird      got a bird  cheeops in the morning love it                                       going to see the rooster               quiet sensational            a mastiff has an approach       bring that approach over here        this dudes on song

spent a season in uk   travelling around from Victoria station   you name it       time on the train to do form that was meaningless    sportinglife you have to like it         at the start of the card      being on the yard paid the exs   birds love you when you got cyrill

At risk of repeating myself. You need a LONG and DEEP bank. Your bets need to be a miniscule proportion of your bank. Long losing runs should never make you lose your head and alter your plan. What goes around comes around. Finding ways to pick winners is the easy part. Staying sane and disciplined during hard times is the hard part.

Rocklea trots was where I started in the 60's. Saw both Lucky Creed and Stormy Water race there. Lucky Creed went from Rocklea to win the heat and final of The Carousel. That was the start of his record 21 race winning streak.

There must have been forty bookies there in those days.

At risk of repeating myself. You need a LONG and DEEP bank. Your bets need to be a miniscule proportion of your bank. Long losing runs should never make you lose your head and alter your plan. What goes around comes around. Finding ways to pick winners is the easy part. Staying sane and disciplined during hard times is the hard part.

In between the posts containing the DaVinci Code ....DA, keep repeating it, please.

Eh?

You started with .....At risk of repeating myself

I'm suggesting / requesting that you do in fact repeat yourself. Some things take time to absorb....

a realllllllly lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng time

Sorry. I shall never offer punting advice on here again. Too easy.

Silly man.

I'll try again.

I think your advice is excellent.

Some of us recreational types know this advice is excellent but still struggle to "enforce" it to whatever degree.

By struggle, I mean 40 years of ill-discipline is not changed with hearing good advice "once".

Repetition of excellent advice is/ would be appreciated by us with deeply entrenched sloppy habits.

I'm not kidding.

Capeesh?

Aaah I see. Sorry for being a bit thick!

It's cool. Think that's the second time you've misunderstood and thrown your toys out on this thread.

Do try to keep up.

Rocklea trots just had that atmosphere that was unique..standing starts only ..right there in front of you..King of Rocklea in the 70's probably have to go to Sky ring boy (one eyed) with Langlands unless you (Castiron) can jolt my memory with another ....and yes the bookies ring always strong......nice thoughts return Castiron...actually i recall it was where a young M. Dux and D Graham started or at least drove when young young....and of course the best winning strategy ....Wanless always won the first race

just back from reading    MARKET ANALYSIS  on uk horse racing forum             mastiff is a very eloquent and reading between the lines    truthfull as well                      all that hes got to say    could be included on this fred                                                                                                                         totally mirrored    in aust racing and gambling     just have to identify   the corresponding aust indicators                     got a few ideas      just have to assemble them in mastiff like package      our own DA VINCI code

Skyring Boy would have been in the 80's, Henry.

Another track specialist was Jay Ar Ewing, who raced in the late 80's early 90's.

Yes you are right...Jay Ar...Bowyer or McMullen ? Hmmm
The Queensland era of Hollywood John vs D. Alexander.

All other memories are warmly welcomed

I will tell you a funny story about Hollywood John McMullen.

A mate of mine of was driving down a side street in New Farm, and spotted Hollywood's horse truck parked on the side of the road, with John sitting in it. Thinking that he must have broken down, he pulls over, gets out and sticks his head in the passenger side window. Crouched down in the seat , was one of the female strappers giving Hollywood a headjob. 

Good on him  ...and great to see the family still represented..funny when I see Junior (not so junior anymore..dare I talk) watching him limp just like dad ..remember Hollywood's style..sitting way back in the cart whether it was Yarraman this or that or Toliver this or that or My Windfall ...4-5 out 8 winners a Saturday night....Thank you Castiron ..nice reflection on those days.....

henryluca • March 29, 2014 7:32 AM GMT

Redcliffe R 2...over 130 k traded hmmmm fav 1.40

Report• Quote • Block User henryluca • March 29, 2014 7:36 AM GMT

Redcliffe Race 2 29.3.2014

Lite Prince

Betting summary - Volume:     $135,960
Total matched on this event:     $140,052

Lite Prince

Smelt the odour and laid it..

what about me    it isn't fair    just cos im losing my hair

Dont worry about your hair ...it is gone.....update the Da Vinci Code you started 28 March 2014 above in this thread...

gday henri    suspect   your on the    grand canyon trail

da vinci code                                         the obvious  doesn't   come easy     easy                                         easy

all comes down to                       Market Analysis            convert it to aus dollars

that's where you come in tins  see you sooon  upon my spooooooon

site on the uk       preety gud        do our jolly brest

mastiff go know   market analysis                     how goods this     uk forum    transalation please

load of ****                                                                         haven't shown the least interest    in converting to aus      sitting back drinking

waiting for one of you dudes                                art of the cows punt

Hi ho ..almost grand canyon stuff .. mother in law ...80 plus (A very good person I might add)  took ill ..hospital etc ..all good ..now  seemed a bit sacro religious....sac·ri·le·gious....will get it right to,,,,to enjoy oneself with wife bit upset ..all good....Sure many of us have friends no longer here ...I visit  two friends  graves and talk to them still....once had a horse statute I named "Smarty Jones" ..(No explanation needed I am sure )Took it to friends grave 6  plus years ago and is still there ....no no 8 years ago 2006..wow....Anyway have a important you tube reference which I have watched ....VIP to those who study the pre- race warm up etc...(Promised to refer interested persons to it....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsvS6gEBJuE

So  much insight ....after watching this I now realize many things and many subtleties,,,,,,anyone wanting to discuss happy to ...wont bore anyone unless interested

Are you over 65 henryluca?

No ...Under 60 by a hand full

I believe that everyone over 65 should be compulsorily euthanased. You can apply for a special exemption but I don't fancy your chances. Look on the bright side. You've got a few years left!

My turn ..how old Double

Safely under 65. And of course,I have a special exemption!!

All good double...for those that don't you....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd_NB-n3wBI

I actually meant this one ...26.1 first quarter in 1984.....double WOW

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsQL71casbw

Thanks for the trip down memory lane henry. He was a mighty horse. Was a champion but could've been an immortal with sound legs. A MM at 12. Hardly did any fast work. Unbelievable. Had gatespeed could lead,could sit death,could come from behind. Hopples were only for show. Had the pleasure of giving him a pat occasionally back in those days and he was a very pleasant fellow.

I used to be able to find the 1981 Golden Mile on here where DA and Joe gave Poppy and Vinnie the shock of their lives for the first lap but can't find it now.

Didn't J.P.Mignemi train him early on in his career?

LOL!

Serious question ffs

Or maybe your memory doesn't go back that far

Now I really cant sleep!!...stand up and cheer!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3fnUaj2z34

Sorry spy. As far as I know that is not correct. Vic Frost had DA until he broke down too often and spent his retirement on the beaches with Joe Ilsley. If he had anything to do with Mignemi earlier than that then I am unaware but considering DA was 12 in 1984 you would be talking early 70's so I dunno!

99% sure Mignemi was his 1st trainer, trained at Croydon Park if I rmemeber correctly

If you can remember that then you are even older than I thought!

Amazing that Thor Lobell got third in that MM. DA went past him at the 500 like he was gonski gunna come last.

A mate of mine backed Karamea Duplicity in a juvenile race back in 83 or 84. He had 200 each way on her which for him was a MASSIVE bet. He was an apprentice electrician at the time earning maybe $100 a week. I remember in the Sun Wayne Gallagher said a good colt will always  beat a good filly. My mate didn't agree. She led all the way at 10/1.

I'm 65, or am I 66 ffs, there abouts anyway

Shame on you DA, you don't even know how many blokes have hit you on the ahrse with their stick ffs

You have a bit more wisdom than me spy. Although DA is my favourite horse his origins are a bit murky to me. I watched trots in the 70s but I didn't bet on them. The difference in detail between watching them and betting on them is enormous I'm sure you'd agree. I appreciated DA as a topline performer when he was with Vic Frost but it wasn't until he became the overachieving old crock with JJ Ilsley that he captured my heart. His time with Mignemi is something I've never heard of before. I was involved in the industry in the early 80s and no one ever mentioned Mignemi and DA. That's not to say that it didn't happen. I am a bit surprised to hear that but I know that you know your stuff,and have some years on me so I don't doubt that you're right. It makes me wonder why the horse went from Mignemi to Frost? Also I remember Tony Azzopardi was the owner of the horse. Did he always own it?

There's the other possibility that maybe someone told me that back in 1983 and I've forgotten all about it. Hey,it was 30 years ago!

30 years???!!! Seems like yesterday.

Something tells me that Mignemi owned a share of him when he had him, maybe was bought out??? No idea of any other owners names.

Surely some of the older trot boys remember his early days?

I hope they can. I'm very curious about it all.

Get a room, you two.

Good spot, Henry. I'll watch that when I can.

He would've won two MMs under today's racing rules.

if you take home a brick every time you      go to a racetrack    youwill end up with the         grandstand

a bit of honey upon tins spooooooon

going to Market Analysis uk forum          bjt s   da vinci code        any thing comparable in the aus market         will any one start anywhere

guessers    ****s     whankers welcome          convert to aus intelligence       we might have the advantage       for ever                  Market Analysis               then again we may have it for two secs               it is what it is

that that is is that that is not is not is not that so

Been a good educational EP spell for me and it's been fun....but the end is near cos Winter's almost here.

Been treading water at best for the last two or three weeks and reacquainted myself with the losers lounge more than once.

Just watched several recent meetings I'd IQ'd..from m yard (for what it's worth ) to the races themselves.

Lotsa seconds at 16s to 30's for smaller amounts, probably the rub of the green but I can't deny it's gradually getting

tougher to find what I'm looking for. "Horses looking terrific" probably covers it.

Winter coats are starting to come through, particularly those from rural stables and it doesn't pay to dismiss them for it.

Have a pretty strong opinion on a betting strategy upon my return to the punt and thanks for all contributions

on this thread. Even off it, some excellent food for thought...imo.

I'll be playin loose and strong on Friday HQ  and  Sandown Saturday

a bang or a splat...no biggie.

WORD

TINS..great introspetion...

EP (assume Easter period)overall nett bottom lines ...   average results ...forum was quiet and  I for one barely broke even...I too saw it more as fun  in the end...cheap entertainment without any financial gain.

Physical assessment of horses...man.... I spent thousands of hours doing what you often refer to as your modus operandi....being literally trackside is just not as "romantic" as it used to be...when I am there these days (seldom) I think man easier to sacrifice this MO and use others in comfort of a desk and computer. Having to be trackside is so restrictive and TV coverage of horse flesh is so bad with all the ads and stupid tote numbers over the horse imagery....try and find some mo more mechanical...I guarantee it will be at least prosperous as looking at horse under bellies.....(actually alot more attention should be on the horse's elasticity in their movement ..but thats another story...)...and yes winter coats ...limits assessments....anyway not trying to tell you anything but if you really want any more of a reply than this little ramble ....just let me know.....

OK chin up!!

Henry, EP stands for Equine Pervert

No doubt the " romance" is gawn. Still, if the weather is good and collects are regular enough it's an enjoyable challenge.

As much as i love the game, If not for my MO I'd hardly bet. It's potentially a very expensive "hobby" and one that can cause alot of angst.

When I stop and think how "unprepared" or perhaps better said, how many " important" factors I choose to completely ignore, I find

It remarkable that Im at least competitive in the "game". I'd have thought my approach folly ........until recent years.

As I said at the start of this thread. Finding winners is the fun part. Staking, money management and discipline is the key to keeping it

that way .......IMO.

Cheers

TINS
I certainly relate to your MO which I why I think about it.

My thoughts are that being trackside and standing at parade ring these days  is very cumbersome.....(unless your stake is intending to be large)....often especially these days so much more happens because of large number of meetings not just locally but also internationally and therefore EP MO does not allow for percentage game.

Anyway my important comment is that many look fit at metrop meetings. Looks of fitness dont factor in trainers intent as it may be fit but set for a latter race and trainer may just want a 400 metre sprint on that particular day so as to fine tune for next run,,,,,etc  Best example is Kingston Rule ...Dalgety Hdycap ...super fit ....10 lengths off the lead runs home nicely for 5 length placing....set obviously for his next run the Cup.....

A good professional MO is one where you can state there is only the one choice....not 3 or 4 or numbers that are often quoted as chances,,,,cause that is what it then becomes a game of chance ...unless you play the dutching game ..(then each is backed to a 100 percent market etc....)that is a different story.

IMO to be reliant on mobile phone bills and petrol money being paid every week ...week in , week out ...remove the words :

challenge
hobby
expectation of angst ( shouldnt be an option)
factors (plural)

These are factors that describe social board games.

I wont steer you to any alternative MO unless you invite ....

In the meantime I will await responses from those that may want to scrap me for these comments....but hey this is the purpose of our forum ... for us all to share thoughts in honest and constructive ways.

going over to the uk horse racing forum       to see if mastiff is still around    spruiked him here      so be it    read well        will invite him over      allways a spare bed at    tins or bjts

couldnot find him      fly by night  all talk     spare romms free again    having said that    might need it for a disability pension      worth a 130 dollar bill a week rent assistance     just got to tell them I live there     ill scatter a few things about  make it looked in    no gas power water   wear an tear        bargain

sorry     art of the cows        be able to subsidise the losing streaks     dis ability pension coming up          art of the cows      little known fact      you can stay on the disability pension       when they try to shuffle you off to an old age pension                           art of the cows         only loophole left in abbot an hockeys  shuffle up      gunna be able to stay on the cows //// for ever