Miracle Mile

Who does he cant a start in front of Khan?

No Chance anyway. Only way can win if raced 1st up.
I gave everybody the winner 3 weeks ago RESTREPO

Smoken Up wins from Barrier 11 but started Barrier 9
All Emergencies should be on Outside

get

Odds from TAB
Smoken up 3.20 Are they for Real? Should be 10s
Christian Me 4.20 Nice Odds
Beutide 4.50 Wont run a Place
For a Reason 4.60 Will Run Last
Terror to love 6.00 Cant run out of NZ
Restrepo $10 Im Racing Down Tab now
Im Victorious 14s Will Need WA Water
Bitorbliss 15s Wont Run
Abettorpunt 26 Wont Run
Mach Beauty 31s Wont Keep up

Just get on the 10s now

Lloydy

Staggered by that market to be honest

146%...

$300 on at 10s Nearly had $1k on and i never bet that big. Had to Control myself
Will have more on

Tabs got emergencys shorter than Mach Beauty. What does that tell you about the selection panel. NFI

But Mac Beauty did compete well in lead up Races.
All would be just making up numbers

The person who set that market is clueless but good at maths.  Hard to do too much damage betting at 147%.

If you let Lance allocate every barrier draw Smoken Up would still be $6.

Bitobliss has owned Smoken Up recently. Has been set impossible tasks at last 3 and his wins before that were breathtaking, like this one.

http://media.harness.org.au/vic/MXM23081301.wmv

I want to watch horses who can run like that.  He's an excitement machine.  I hate the simplistic selection process that ignores everything but where you finish, it's lazy.

I'd rate him ahead of Smoken Up, Christen Me, Im Victorious, Abettorpunt and Mach Beauty at the moment.  Not sure about For A Reason.

Will be a great bet in the consolation unless he draws 10 again.

Well said Khan!!!! Owned Smoken Up in Victoria

wouldn't get near him at Menangle though - even when he's 11 and sporting a grey beard

If he had the run Mach Beauty had tonight he beats Smoken Up by 10 metres with his head on his chest

Hard to rate BOB ahead of For A Reason Khan, sat on his back the entire race last time and lost ground to him in straight but agree with most of the others with exception of CM. Smoken Up fav plz, if any other horse in race bar Mach Beauty sits on him they will go past him as if he is tied to the rail, can see him whacking away into a place but surely one of the others gets the right trip

Can't back anything in that market but providing he gets a half decent draw will be on Beautide who just keeps improving. Potting the kiwis completely, just struggle over Menangle mile as entirely different style to how they race over there (Monkey King did win a MM but that was day the place opened so no horse was used to that trip). Actually Monkey King is only kiwi to win MM in last 12 years.

My top 3, Beautide, For A Reason, Restrepo. Only other winning hope for mine is Christen Me but would need to draw 1 or 2

Christen Me only been there last season and won the Chariots (beating Restrepo), so hard to say he doesn't get around Menangle well enough

Who knows?  They've never met there.  Bitobliss has had 4 runs at Menangle and drawn 10, 13, 7 and 10 to run 3 placings.  Can't really say he hates the place.

Obviously Smoken Up loves the track but I'll be awestruck if he can win again at 11.

Christen Me has a bit of Auckland Reactor about him in my eyes, was dominant against own age. Open age racing an entirely different kettle of fish

You're a tough man Halyer. The only thing you have to back that up is him not being amazing at the end of the NZ Cup, but two miles simply may not be his go.

My initial reaction is that the I want to be with the Christen Me/Terror To Love/Beautide

Bit of pocket talking from those races AD plus drawing a comparison through TTL who had race presented to it last year and couldn't hold off Baby Bling. Trialling Tuesday which is what he did prior to Chariots so might have the Menangle formula right

Have to admit it is a bit of heart over head with Beautide as well

As I said to VK here a couple of weeks ago I don't take much note of that form from the Miracle Mile and even Inter last season. Some of those horses had been to the well too many times by March/April and the form was a bit 'iffy' for mine. Terror To Love is certainly one I think falls into that category. Happy to forgive those runs and rate him on his 'real' form.

You have every right to give Beautide a serious chance imo. Absolutely flying and well in the race for mine

Good point, I also thought the Chariots was a stronger race than the ID on same day last year so I am contradicting myself a little. Going to be plenty of differing opinions, can't see anything starting less than $4 regardless of barriers. Be great for Jimmy if Beautide wins as put him on the map - even down here he has always been "Gareth's twin brother"

clearly you have all forgotten the run of I'm Victorious in the Chariots as should have gone very close except for the drivers incompetence and let me tell you he's a much better horse now.

We have not forgotten, we just see all these horses, not just the WA ones. He is a very rough chance at best

Restrepo and christen me have both improved as well LE... Natural progression of horses as they age

HRNSW policy is - If you make sure you can't win, we'll give you an invite. 

Mach Beauty has had 4 tough runs in 4 weeks so is a thousand to one.  If BoB had done that he'd similarly be no hope.  Fresh horses win miracle miles and tired ones get invites to make up the numbers.

Baby Bling had had only 1 run in the previous 28 days last year.
Smoken Up had well over a months break before winning in 2011 and a 28 day break when he won in 2010.
Monkey King had a 16 day break in 2009.
Divisive 13 days in 2008.

This years winner was sitting home resting last night, while Smoken Up, Mach Beauty and Abettorpunt were working hard.

It's a real shame we only have the joke TAB market to bet on, this and the inter final are the most 'fun' harness bets there are but they seem to be too complicated for Betfair to manage because you have to close the market before the barrier draw, whenever that is.

Good post Khan

1 Smoken Up
2 For A Reason
3 Mach Beauty
4 Abettorpunt
5 Beautide
6 Christen Me
7 Terror To Love
8 Im Victorious
9 Bitobliss
10 Restrepo

Bad luck Lloydy.
Smoken Up obvious massive lay.

Restrepo impossible, simply can't win.

For A Reason is not one of mine as I believe he is completely one dimensional and needs everything to go right, but is a major chance from that draw. The only problem is he might need to be hunted up with Mach Beauty potentially trying to whiz out and open up the gap behind Lance

Got crossed last time he drew the pole...   http://www.trotstv.com.au/?mc=ME261111&rn=8

I would think Lance holds up looking at the two of them last night. The question will be whether Mach Beauty can get in behind or not. For A Reason could go from a 3/1 chance to a 20/1 chance pending that

no luck with RESTREPO with draw huge prizemoney
ist  450.000
2nd 112500
3rd 75,000
4th 37,500
5th 30,000
6th 7th 8th 15,000 for turning up. which is equal to a metro race at Melton

AUSSIE DRIVER/KHAN very good comments

Good luck Elsu, hopefully Jones goes crazy attacking Lance for you and you can sneak some of the bigger prizemoney

They won't mb hard with jones driving, he has a brain

It does seem that way doesn't it

If Panella was on you would almost want to be drawn to be out the back!!

hoping for 5th or better  but FANTASTIC to be in it
had shares in 3 runners in MIRACLE MILE.. THOR LOBELL 1984  [3rd to doubleagent]..[ CHOKIN  1991  choked down] now RESTREPO

Elsu,
10 is a Good Draw.
Only Drop out let them go Crazy pull out on Turn and whoosh straight Past them.

sounds good  and hope your right hoping for a top 5 finish
maybe the TAB  might bet some EXOTIC BETS ON MIRACLE MILE SMOKEN UP V FOR A REASON CHRISTEN ME V TERROR TO LOVE  ETC

RESTREPO V MACH BEAUTY V IM VICTORIUS collect on  whoever beats each other home  also BEAU TIDE/CHRISTEN ME/TERROR TO LOVE

no doubt Mach beauty will slot in behind Smokin up.  Beautide to the breeze, for a reason on its back and christen me 1/2.  who will want to go three pegs?  usually something left field happens???

love your optimism Lloydy but you just cannot come from last in this class at Menangle over the mile.  Restrepo just has to go to the pegs and hope for lots of luck.

At least with just the single runner from the premier stable we will be spared the nonsensical tactics announcements !!!

The tactics will just be, as they should always be .... trying to win !!!   No further correspondence required.

TROTMAN  are you doing a BETFAIR RATINGS. on the program  will be interesting to your ASSESMENTS for the night

ELSU

No correspondence from Betfair since the end of last contract that ran up to Aust Breeders Crown.

It all comes from the marketing department -- so perhaps they are spending their cash elsewhere ?

So the shorter answer would be NO :-)

Spending it on THE SHARK trotman

which is a shame
because is as bad as there is

all 3 codes should be covered when feature racing on to showcase

You must have been costing them too much Trotman!!

Indeed AD ...

But then again -- FREE form is EXPENSIVE if it's no bloody good.

And $1000 a race could be CHEAP if it turns you a profit too !?!

The racing game is pretty flukey -- we all know that.

what about the bloke that had 5000 on smoken up at 3.20 with the TAB. How would he be feeling knowing you can get 10000 at 4.20 on betfair? what an imbecile!! was it an imaginary bet?? like all these corps, who only really bet to win a round of drinks!!
p.s smoken up has no hope, ill do a crackers and declare it cant win!!

the corporates let the mugs on for plenty.  happy times when you find an account such as this.  I am sure the tab were more than happy to take that bet at those odds.

I am not tipping him, but what are the reasons for Smoking Up having no chance.  Obviously most on here have a good idea but I'd like to know why there is a forum set against him.

that would be Smokin Up*

LRO, I am not saying he can't win, he can win, but he is without doubt a false favourite.

He has firmed into fav on the back of one run. Whilst he ran time (all of us on here know we can be seduced by times), he just held off Mach Beauty who had sat in the trail. Give any other horse in this race (bar Mach Beauty itself) that trail last Saturday and they all beat Smoken Up in my view. This week, unlike last, he will be running similar time with the likes of Christen Me, For A Reason, Terror To Love coiled up just behind the speed waiting to pounce. The one that can dive bomb him surely gets him?

Also, he was being completely owned in Victoria by a horse who apparently is not good enough to be there!

Logic tells me there are too many horses with huge speed that will get a nice trip for one of them not to nail him

yep fair point AD.  Do you think Mach Beauty will be on his back again?  Cannot see Luke wanting to really bustle For A Reason right out of the gate.  I'm thinking he will be happy to sit on the back of Beautide.  If Beautide is in the breeze I can't see anything trying to make a move to take him on for that spot.  Christen Me would be the only remote chance of doing that, but it would be more than risky.

I think you are probably right. I'm guessing For A Reason probably could hold Lance's back (may be wrong) but would have to really bustle to do so as there is no doubt they will look to open the spot up with Mach Beauty. So I suspect it pans out as you suggested.

Would they definitely want to breeze with Beautide though? I know he has shown he has a lot of bottom, but the hardest way to beat Smoken Up has always been to sit outside him where he can fight you off for 400 metres

true, he may want to hand the death up to Christen Me.  Looks the only possible one to go there I would of thought?  Doubt Terror To Love would?

No I couldn't see ttl going there

My original 'massive lay' comment was on the assumption that Mach Beauty would carry on its kamikaze lead at all costs policy cause that's what 99% of harness drivers do; same thing no matter what.  If other horse(s) came across too they mightn't let Smoken Up off the fence and back in front easily.

I'll *try* to keep this shortish.  It's tricky reconciling the Sydney winning machine Smoken Up to the very beatable Victorian one:

SU Pros:
Is an amazing horse who has exemplified the very best of harness racing for many years.
One of the toughest horses ever.  Sat outside Blacks A Fake to win three years ago in nearly 1:50, an almost impossible feat.
Has won last 7 starts at Menangle, all over a mile.
Lance has won 4 out of last 9 Miracle Miles.  You couldn't hope for a better stable.
Should lead and run 1:50ish which is hard to beat wherever you are.

Cons:
11yo backing up just a week after a tough run.  Ran very serious first and last quarters.
Surely can't be a sure thing to lead.
If does lead seems certain to hang out around the final turn and present a run to whoever is on his back, assuming they have the brains to stay there.
That horse will very probably be For A Reason, who really should run SU down if he's done normal amounts of work.
Slight question mark over positive swab and the effect of security watching him beforehand. Who knows what the story is there but you can't completely ignore it.
Nobody wins forever.

Known Unknowns:
What's the rest of the field going to do?  The only known maniac should be in front and the others are usually conservative, but if they all sit back they shouldn't bother turning up.  If TTL is a tough stayer shouldn't he try to make it a staying test?

Conclusions:

If you look at the replay of SUs last MM there's little doubt that if Im Themightyquin stays on the fence it wins.  Karloo Mick almost ran him down from two behind, one of the least likely horses to do so.

I think if the race is run at 'normal' miracle mile tempo (i.e. fast) he'll get run down easily by For A Reason.  Mainly cause he's 11 and ran that fast first quarter last week.  If you had to have $10k on something then surely For A Reason would be it.

If he gets an easy 400-600m in there, and/or isn't pressured for the lead then he wins or just gets beat by the death horse.

If they go crazy at some point then anything can happen, but that'll bring the wide runners into it and he's very unlikely to win.

I just have no clue about the chances of them going crazy.  From here they seem very low but it's also hard to imagine all these talented horses sitting back and taking a nap.  A procession is the only outcome I would find very disappointing.

Mach Beauty will come out for sure and Mark Jones on you'd think he will be dropping in behind.  I don't see why Luke would bother to bustle For A Reason out to make sure he holds that spot.  Has not come out of the gate this time in, cannot see that changing here. 

Pressure in the middle stages depends on Beautide holding the death.  I cannot see him winning the race at all but if he takes a sit mid race if one of the Kiwi's comes for for the breeze he has none.  If he holds them out (if one of them comes) then mid race pressure will be on.

A procession is the only outcome I would find very disappointing.

That's why I gave up watching them years ago....has something changed in recent years, Khan?

What a great preview Khan ... well done !

My only fear is that the race is full of mainly sit-sprinters. The two who have raced 'tough' are Smoken Up & Beautide ... and the barrier draw should allow them to land near the front immediately. I would think that the 'procession' is a very real possibility.

26.5  --  29.0  --  28.0  --  26.5

As much as it pains me to say it ... an identical run to last week would be difficult to beat. Maybe Beautide can do it -- the only horse I have seen break 54 seconds home there !?!?!  The old master vs the young apprentice :-)

It looks a forlorn hope for those back in the field any way.

Can't believe how forgotten CM is, people even saying he shouldn't have been invited - this horse is out of this world and was toying with TTL pre cup - last half 54 in FFA and could never win cup from 3 pegs

Uncle 2nd best horse in race behind RESTREPO

Agree Uncleee, it's amazing how views change without basis. I rate CM top pick

Thanks trotman!  I agree with you.

The sectionals from last weeks feature paint a grim picture.  Baby Bling ran a sub 55 second last half and came second last!  If you let very good horses get away with a 29.3 second quarter up front then even the best horses of all time won't get near them.

If the leaders break 55 for their last half and you're starting behind them and racing out wide it's physically impossible to catch them.  That's why I dislike mile racing, and Smoken Up has excelled at it.  Most of the field has no hope whatever they do by the halfway mark.  And also why most people are ignoring CM, TTL, or most of the field really cause it seems probably they will fall into this category.

The key to Menangle miles seems to be that second quarter, which is usually very slow.  For A Reasons 1:50 win three starts back was set up by a blistering 26.9 second quarter.  If you sit back during a slow second sectional you're good as dead.  If you go forward you have a chance but will be doing stacks of work and there are some very big races not too far away so you'd have to be courageous.

If the second quarter is 29 then one of the first three horses wins.  If it's 27 they very probably don't.  And in between is in between.

I think I have to side with the cynics trotman and spoon that it looks like it'll be slow = have to be up near the front.

Luke has said he'll be coming out as fast as he can and trying to get behind Smoken Up which makes a lot of sense to me.  If you look at For A Reasons replays it has been completely owned by Mach Beauty early but they haven't made the slightest effort to come out fast.  This will obviously be very different.

ffs, now I've seen it all....I get accused of not being able to do a video to save myself
and low and behold I read CMe "toyed" with TTL pre Cup.....on what planet was that?
for one thing TTL was nowhere near 100% or wound up for those races and he hardly got "toyed" with
in the New Brigthon Cup CMe led, TTL in the death from the mile, still runs a 54.0 half and I repeat when nowhere near 100%

TTL was on a mission to be trained to the minute for 5:15pm on the 2nd Tuesday in November and not a second before
Cran Dalgety as good a trainer that he is got CMe's Cup prep all wrong
I think you blokes are too busy "toying" each other

CMe couldn't win the Cup from two pegs? why the **** not? he had every possible and was beaten by a champion who lost how much early?
open your eyes, what TTL did to win the 2nd fastest NZ Cup ever was just out of this world, beyond phenomenal

to me the Miracle Mile at Menangle is a joke and a novelty race at best, shouldn't even be called the Miracle Mile
it's just sullies the memory of the great race of the same name that was held at Harold Park

the best horse in the race Terror To Love faces near on mission impossible but I'll be cheering him home
Im Victorious another shafted by the draw but watch this bloke cos he's the real deal

good luck anyone having a bet but it's easy to see how mugs get so easily separated from their hard earned

and if I hear one more time how good that great pretender Bitobliss is I'm gunna be violently ill

The latter years of Harold Park........... ahhhhh, fond procession memories.

I was genuine in asking if the last few years had been any different...I'm guessing not.

Before the barney starts can someone tell me when it's on, please?

HP = HQ ... what a great track for spectating !!!
... and only 10 mins walk to stumble home after :-)
Westburn Grant was the one who changed big mile racing there for good.
He was the first to fly out in around 27.5 - then get his 31.0 sec breather in the second split.
Then he would wind it up to around 28.5 and 27.5 !!!
EVERYTHING swings on the SECOND QUARTER.

ps. Work on the new Grandstand at HP is coming along brilliantly -- the views from eight storeys up will be incredible !!!

Pub Blitz not even an emergency - you must be ASTOUNDED VK!!

You couldn't be wrong though, surely, not when you telling others who know the VIC form backwards they need to do a videos 101 course.

So CM didn't hold him comfortably in the Canterbury classic, newbrighten and cup trial?