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Final field out. When's the draw?
Bitobliss robbed cause he refused to play the 'you must come and win here, even though you get barrier 10 every time' game.
Bitobliss robbed cause he refused to play the 'you must come and win here, even though you get barrier 10 every time' game.
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Who does he cant a start in front of Khan?
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No Chance anyway. Only way can win if raced 1st up.
I gave everybody the winner 3 weeks ago RESTREPO |
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Smoken Up wins from Barrier 11 but started Barrier 9
All Emergencies should be on Outside |
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get
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Odds from TAB
Smoken up 3.20 Are they for Real? Should be 10s Christian Me 4.20 Nice Odds Beutide 4.50 Wont run a Place For a Reason 4.60 Will Run Last Terror to love 6.00 Cant run out of NZ Restrepo $10 Im Racing Down Tab now Im Victorious 14s Will Need WA Water Bitorbliss 15s Wont Run Abettorpunt 26 Wont Run Mach Beauty 31s Wont Keep up Just get on the 10s now Lloydy |
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Staggered by that market to be honest
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146%...
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$300 on at 10s Nearly had $1k on and i never bet that big. Had to Control myself
Will have more on |
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Tabs got emergencys shorter than Mach Beauty. What does that tell you about the selection panel. NFI
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But Mac Beauty did compete well in lead up Races.
All would be just making up numbers |
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The person who set that market is clueless but good at maths. Hard to do too much damage betting at 147%.
If you let Lance allocate every barrier draw Smoken Up would still be $6. |
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Bitobliss has owned Smoken Up recently. Has been set impossible tasks at last 3 and his wins before that were breathtaking, like this one.
http://media.harness.org.au/vic/MXM23081301.wmv I want to watch horses who can run like that. He's an excitement machine. I hate the simplistic selection process that ignores everything but where you finish, it's lazy. I'd rate him ahead of Smoken Up, Christen Me, Im Victorious, Abettorpunt and Mach Beauty at the moment. Not sure about For A Reason. Will be a great bet in the consolation unless he draws 10 again. |
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Well said Khan!!!! Owned Smoken Up in Victoria
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wouldn't get near him at Menangle though - even when he's 11 and sporting a grey beard
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If he had the run Mach Beauty had tonight he beats Smoken Up by 10 metres with his head on his chest
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Hard to rate BOB ahead of For A Reason Khan, sat on his back the entire race last time and lost ground to him in straight but agree with most of the others with exception of CM. Smoken Up fav plz, if any other horse in race bar Mach Beauty sits on him they will go past him as if he is tied to the rail, can see him whacking away into a place but surely one of the others gets the right trip
Can't back anything in that market but providing he gets a half decent draw will be on Beautide who just keeps improving. Potting the kiwis completely, just struggle over Menangle mile as entirely different style to how they race over there (Monkey King did win a MM but that was day the place opened so no horse was used to that trip). Actually Monkey King is only kiwi to win MM in last 12 years. My top 3, Beautide, For A Reason, Restrepo. Only other winning hope for mine is Christen Me but would need to draw 1 or 2 |
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Christen Me only been there last season and won the Chariots (beating Restrepo), so hard to say he doesn't get around Menangle well enough
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Who knows? They've never met there. Bitobliss has had 4 runs at Menangle and drawn 10, 13, 7 and 10 to run 3 placings. Can't really say he hates the place.
Obviously Smoken Up loves the track but I'll be awestruck if he can win again at 11. |
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Christen Me has a bit of Auckland Reactor about him in my eyes, was dominant against own age. Open age racing an entirely different kettle of fish
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You're a tough man Halyer. The only thing you have to back that up is him not being amazing at the end of the NZ Cup, but two miles simply may not be his go.
My initial reaction is that the I want to be with the Christen Me/Terror To Love/Beautide |
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Bit of pocket talking from those races AD plus drawing a comparison through TTL who had race presented to it last year and couldn't hold off Baby Bling. Trialling Tuesday which is what he did prior to Chariots so might have the Menangle formula right
Have to admit it is a bit of heart over head with Beautide as well |
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As I said to VK here a couple of weeks ago I don't take much note of that form from the Miracle Mile and even Inter last season. Some of those horses had been to the well too many times by March/April and the form was a bit 'iffy' for mine. Terror To Love is certainly one I think falls into that category. Happy to forgive those runs and rate him on his 'real' form.
You have every right to give Beautide a serious chance imo. Absolutely flying and well in the race for mine |
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Good point, I also thought the Chariots was a stronger race than the ID on same day last year so I am contradicting myself a little. Going to be plenty of differing opinions, can't see anything starting less than $4 regardless of barriers. Be great for Jimmy if Beautide wins as put him on the map - even down here he has always been "Gareth's twin brother"
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clearly you have all forgotten the run of I'm Victorious in the Chariots as should have gone very close except for the drivers incompetence and let me tell you he's a much better horse now.
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We have not forgotten, we just see all these horses, not just the WA ones. He is a very rough chance at best
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Restrepo and christen me have both improved as well LE... Natural progression of horses as they age
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HRNSW policy is - If you make sure you can't win, we'll give you an invite.
Mach Beauty has had 4 tough runs in 4 weeks so is a thousand to one. If BoB had done that he'd similarly be no hope. Fresh horses win miracle miles and tired ones get invites to make up the numbers. Baby Bling had had only 1 run in the previous 28 days last year. Smoken Up had well over a months break before winning in 2011 and a 28 day break when he won in 2010. Monkey King had a 16 day break in 2009. Divisive 13 days in 2008. This years winner was sitting home resting last night, while Smoken Up, Mach Beauty and Abettorpunt were working hard. It's a real shame we only have the joke TAB market to bet on, this and the inter final are the most 'fun' harness bets there are but they seem to be too complicated for Betfair to manage because you have to close the market before the barrier draw, whenever that is. |
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Good post Khan
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1 Smoken Up
2 For A Reason 3 Mach Beauty 4 Abettorpunt 5 Beautide 6 Christen Me 7 Terror To Love 8 Im Victorious 9 Bitobliss 10 Restrepo Bad luck Lloydy. Smoken Up obvious massive lay. |
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Restrepo impossible, simply can't win.
For A Reason is not one of mine as I believe he is completely one dimensional and needs everything to go right, but is a major chance from that draw. The only problem is he might need to be hunted up with Mach Beauty potentially trying to whiz out and open up the gap behind Lance |
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Got crossed last time he drew the pole... http://www.trotstv.com.au/?mc=ME261111&rn=8
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I would think Lance holds up looking at the two of them last night. The question will be whether Mach Beauty can get in behind or not. For A Reason could go from a 3/1 chance to a 20/1 chance pending that
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no luck with RESTREPO with draw huge prizemoney
ist 450.000 2nd 112500 3rd 75,000 4th 37,500 5th 30,000 6th 7th 8th 15,000 for turning up. which is equal to a metro race at Melton |
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AUSSIE DRIVER/KHAN very good comments
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Good luck Elsu, hopefully Jones goes crazy attacking Lance for you and you can sneak some of the bigger prizemoney
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They won't mb hard with jones driving, he has a brain
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It does seem that way doesn't it
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If Panella was on you would almost want to be drawn to be out the back!!
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hoping for 5th or better but FANTASTIC to be in it
had shares in 3 runners in MIRACLE MILE.. THOR LOBELL 1984 [3rd to doubleagent]..[ CHOKIN 1991 choked down] now RESTREPO |